Author Topic: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick  (Read 11951 times)

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Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #60 on: July 14, 2017, 02:31:26 PM »

Offline The One

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Did any CBers get to watch it?

Was the press conference as weak as it was tweeted about?

https://twitter.com/Scott_Souza/status/885922519471050752

@Scott_Souza
Technically, it was a hallway next to a locked conference room & a fire exit.

@alexdsilvia93
am i the only 1 majorly disappointed in what I just saw? Get the big fish all the hype & get ainge for 10mins in corner of gym
11:02 AM - 14 Jul 2017

Please delete...wrong thread.

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #61 on: July 14, 2017, 02:34:47 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Did any CBers get to watch it?

Was the press conference as weak as it was tweeted about?

https://twitter.com/Scott_Souza/status/885922519471050752

@Scott_Souza
Technically, it was a hallway next to a locked conference room & a fire exit.

@alexdsilvia93
am i the only 1 majorly disappointed in what I just saw? Get the big fish all the hype & get ainge for 10mins in corner of gym
11:02 AM - 14 Jul 2017
excuse me, but i have no idea what you are referring to in your post. please provide some context. thanks.
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Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #62 on: July 14, 2017, 02:35:31 PM »

Offline mrceltics2013

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Bagley and Ayton would be a dream come true.

C.  Deandre Ayton 7'0"
Pf. Marvin Bagley 6'11"
Sf. Jayson Tatum 6'9"
Sg. Jaylen Brown 6'7"

Woah. What a core for the future while also competing!  All that line-up needs is a PG of the future.  Maybe T-Ro or Smart

Yeah just trade IT and Hayward to pholly for Simmons. 😂

C.  Deandre Ayton 7'0"
Pf. Marvin Bagley 6'11"
Sf. Jayson Tatum 6'9"
Sg. Jaylen Brown 6'7"
Pg. Ben Simmons 6'10"

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #63 on: July 14, 2017, 02:39:27 PM »

Offline max215

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Here's the thing - Lakers have incentive to be as good as possible because they are trying to convince two superstars to join them, and they don't own their pick.  They have no reason to tank, and actually have incentive to be good.

Bulls, Pacers, Suns, Hawks, Magic - all own their picks and figure to tank. 

Given those facts I don't think the Lakers have a shot and being bottom-5, which is what we need them to be. That's the way the arrows are pointing anyway.  And there is always the chance their ping-pong ball comes up and Celtics get their 2/3 pick.

The Nets had no reason to tank for the past two seasons.  That didn't stop them from finishing with the #3 and #1 lottery odds, though.  Having "no incentive to tank" doesn't magically make the team better.

I think this idea stems from a general lack of understanding of tanking. Coaches and players try to win, always. All you need to do to confirm this is look at some of the late season wins of tanking teams. Look at the Knicks, for example, costing themselves a few slots in the draft on the very last day of the season last year. Jeff Hornacek, Ron Baker, Justin Holiday. These guys couldn't care less about having the 8th pick instead of the 6th; they're fighting for their livelihoods. There is a massive void between the interests of the front office and those of the players and coaches, and ultimately, it's the players and coaches who determine wins and losses..
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 03:03:52 PM by max215 »
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Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #64 on: July 14, 2017, 02:47:42 PM »

Online nickagneta

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I think the only thing we can safely say for sure is that the OP is jumping the gun on where LA is going to finish and that they won't win a top three spot in the lottery. Even if LA finishes 6-9 many teams landing in those spots have won top 3 picks. I don't think we can safely say anything about the Lakers pick until after the lottery.

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #65 on: July 14, 2017, 03:07:22 PM »

Offline The One

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Did any CBers get to watch it?

Was the press conference as weak as it was tweeted about?

https://twitter.com/Scott_Souza/status/885922519471050752

@Scott_Souza
Technically, it was a hallway next to a locked conference room & a fire exit.

@alexdsilvia93
am i the only 1 majorly disappointed in what I just saw? Get the big fish all the hype & get ainge for 10mins in corner of gym
11:02 AM - 14 Jul 2017
excuse me, but i have no idea what you are referring to in your post. please provide some context. thanks.

Please delete my post...

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #66 on: July 14, 2017, 03:22:38 PM »

Offline NorCalJack

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I feel everyone is overvaluing Lonzo at age 19.  Name the last 19 YO player to lead a team into the playoffs that was a bottom 3 team the year before. 

Take Minnesota for example.  They had Wiggins and then drafted Karl Anthony-Towns.  They went from 16 wins to 29 wins.  Did not even sniff the playoffs.

The Lakers lost Nick Young and Russell this offseason.  They added Lopez and KCP, but not sure they move the needle much.  They had Ingram and now drafted Ball.  Last year they had a 26 wins and had the 3rd worst record in the NBA.  I don't see them getting past 33 wins this year.  In fact I think they end up with 26 wins again.  The West is a tough conference and teams will be dogging Ball with their best defender all year.

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #67 on: July 14, 2017, 03:22:52 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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I see the LA media hype machine has everyone worried.

DOn't be scared, they will still be really bad. That defense will literally be one of the worst in modern NBA history.

And I'm not really seeing how they could be much better than last year, they lost two of their better vets and their best young player.

OUT: Russell, Lou Williams, Nick Young, Mozgov

IN: Ball, Lopez, KCP

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #68 on: July 14, 2017, 03:33:08 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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Here's the thing - Lakers have incentive to be as good as possible because they are trying to convince two superstars to join them, and they don't own their pick.  They have no reason to tank, and actually have incentive to be good.

Bulls, Pacers, Suns, Hawks, Magic - all own their picks and figure to tank. 

Given those facts I don't think the Lakers have a shot and being bottom-5, which is what we need them to be. That's the way the arrows are pointing anyway.  And there is always the chance their ping-pong ball comes up and Celtics get their 2/3 pick.
Pacers made the trade they did because they don't want to tank. Some of those other teams might have incentive to tank, but they won't have a plan to do that til later in the season. 

Vegas has 4 teams with an over/under worse than the LAL. We might not get that pick, but teams like Phoenix are going to try to win, at least until their season is over. Phoenix thinks they have some quality young talent, they're not going to play to lose.

The LAL pick might sneak out of the top 5, but there's no way this is a 35 win team. They're probably going to struggle to win 30 if all goes well.

The Nets had all the incentive in the world to win in 2016 & 2017, and yet we got the 3rd and 1st picks, and they handily had the worst record last year. Lonzo Ball is probably going to be a great player, but history shows us even the best rookies have limited impact unless you're Larry Bird or Lebron James. Our chances might be 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 of getting that pick, but we can't "safely say" we won't.

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #69 on: July 14, 2017, 04:01:05 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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I don't believe the Lakers are gonna be a bottom 5 team, but they aren't gonna be a playoff team either.

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Houston (CP3 + Harden)
4. Minny (KAT + Butler + Wiggins + Teague)
5. OKC (Westbrook + George + Adams)
6. Portland (Lillard + McCollum + the Nurkic effect)
7. LA Clips (Griffin + Jordan + Gallo)
8. New Orleans (Davis + Boogie + Holiday)
9. Denver (Jokic + Millsap)
10. Memphis (Conley + Marc Gasol)
11. Utah (Gobert + Favors + Hood + Rubio + good coach in Snyder)

(not necessarily in that order)

I cannot see the Lakers being better than any of those teams. Worst case scenario (for the C's) they 'll be the 12th best team in the West.

Hopefully, they are gonna be worse than some Eastern Conference teams as well. Problem is, there are far too many tankers/bad teams in the East.

If I had to guess, I 'd say the following teams are gonna be worse than the Lakers next season.

Phoenix
Dallas
Brooklyn
Atlanta
Chicago
NY
Orlando

In this scenario, only way for us to get the pick is if the Lakers move up to #2 (3.3%) or #3 (3.9%) in the lottery. To put it another way, we would have a 7.2% chance to get the pick.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 04:08:24 PM by Jvalin »

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #70 on: July 14, 2017, 04:04:44 PM »

Offline byennie

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Roughly speaking, to not get the LAL pick, one of these things needs to happen:

1) They win the lottery
2) They win 30+ games but not the lottery

Let's say there's maybe a 10% of #1, at most, considering even a bottom 3 pick is looking at ~20% odds.

What the odds they win 30 games? I'd say maybe 25%.

There are just too many net negatives on that team. Clarkson is one of the worst defenders in the league: big role. Ball is a rookie PG who's not physically mature, starting on Day 1. Randle is a poor defender. Ingram didn't look ready at all last year. KCP is overpaid and inefficient. They have at least 3 new starters who have never played together before. Deng looked like he aged 5 years last year.

Lots of "ifs" involved, for sure, but that looks like a team playing for 20-30 wins in the west. Any bad breaks and they are in a lot of trouble.

All told, I'd put the very rough odds at something like 60% that we get the pick which is to say, there's definitely no safe bet on either side.

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Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #71 on: July 14, 2017, 04:22:57 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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I don't believe the Lakers are gonna be a bottom 5 team, but they aren't gonna be a playoff team either.

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Houston (CP3 + Harden)
4. Minny (KAT + Butler + Wiggins + Teague)
5. OKC (Westbrook + George + Adams)
6. Portland (Lillard + McCollum + the Nurkic effect)
7. LA Clips (Griffin + Jordan + Gallo)
8. New Orleans (Davis + Boogie + Holiday)
9. Denver (Jokic + Millsap)
10. Memphis (Conley + Marc Gasol)
11. Utah (Gobert + Favors + Hood + Rubio + good coach in Snyder)

(not necessarily in that order)

I cannot see the Lakers being better than any of those teams. Worst case scenario (for the C's) they 'll be the 12th best team in the West.

Hopefully, they are gonna be worse than some Eastern Conference teams as well. Problem is, there are far too many tankers/bad teams in the East.

If I had to guess, I 'd say the following teams are gonna be worse than the Lakers next season.

Phoenix
Dallas
Brooklyn
Atlanta
Chicago
NY
Orlando

In this scenario, only way for us to get the pick is if the Lakers move up to #2 (3.3%) or #3 (3.9%) in the lottery. To put it another way, we would have a 7.2% chance to get the pick.
I agree on all of the teams you predict to finish better than the Lakers. 

I would go further and suggest Phx has a legit shot of being better than LA.  Bledsoe, Chriss, Booker, Chandler, Dudley, Warren, Knight and Josh Jackson make for a better core of players than what LA has.  That's not even depending on Bender or Len to provide much this year.

Dallas has Dirk, Noel, McRoberts, Wes Mathews, Harrison Barnes, Devin Harris, Dwight Powell and bright shiny new rookie in Dennis Smith.  I like that core better than LA's too and we know Cuban doesn't want to tank while Dirk is still playing.

You omitted Sac who I also think has a better overall roster: Vince, Zach, George Hill, Kouros, Ty Lawson and some good looking youth Skal, WCS, Giles, Justin Jackson, Hield and Fox looks like a prize rookie.  Borden Bogdanovic could work out well for them.   

Lakers are very much contenders for the bottom of the West.  Their D should continue to be horrid.  KCP really needs to make a leap to move the needle for this team.  still relying on Lopez to stay healthy.  Deng is a shadow of his old self.  Randle is empty stats.  some youth that may turn into some decent players but they seem to just focus on scoring and not much else.

in the East, I think it's the Nets and Orlando competing with them for the worst record in the league with possibly Atlanta nosing their way in.  I think there's a higher level of talent left in Indy, NY and Chicago for them to drop that low in the overall standing.  The other aspect is the teams in the East will pick up wins against each other whereas LA will be the West's whipping boy this season further piling on the losses.

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #72 on: July 14, 2017, 04:31:02 PM »

Offline Boise To Boston

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Here's the thing - Lakers have incentive to be as good as possible because they are trying to convince two superstars to join them, and they don't own their pick.  They have no reason to tank, and actually have incentive to be good.

Bulls, Pacers, Suns, Hawks, Magic - all own their picks and figure to tank. 

Given those facts I don't think the Lakers have a shot and being bottom-5, which is what we need them to be. That's the way the arrows are pointing anyway.  And there is always the chance their ping-pong ball comes up and Celtics get their 2/3 pick.

The Nets had no reason to tank for the past two seasons.  That didn't stop them from finishing with the #3 and #1 lottery odds, though.  Having "no incentive to tank" doesn't magically make the team better.

You're absolutely correct, but it is part of the equation.  And The Lakers have Ball who looks like a special facilitator, KCP who can lock down the point so Ball can play off-ball, an improving Ingram, and Lopez.  They won't be able to guard a statue and won't make they playoffs, but given that they have zero incentive to perform otherwise, they'll be better this year.

Injuries happen and player development has roadbumps, and I think it's possible LA finishes in the bottom 4-5, but If I had to bet my mortgage payment I'd bet on the Bulls, Pacers, Nets, Suns, and Hawks being worse than LA this year.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong though!

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #73 on: July 14, 2017, 04:47:16 PM »

Offline JHTruth

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Here's the thing - Lakers have incentive to be as good as possible because they are trying to convince two superstars to join them, and they don't own their pick.  They have no reason to tank, and actually have incentive to be good.

Bulls, Pacers, Suns, Hawks, Magic - all own their picks and figure to tank. 

Given those facts I don't think the Lakers have a shot and being bottom-5, which is what we need them to be. That's the way the arrows are pointing anyway.  And there is always the chance their ping-pong ball comes up and Celtics get their 2/3 pick.

The Nets had no reason to tank for the past two seasons.  That didn't stop them from finishing with the #3 and #1 lottery odds, though.  Having "no incentive to tank" doesn't magically make the team better.

You're absolutely correct, but it is part of the equation.  And The Celtics have Ball who looks like a special facilitator, KCP who can lock down the point so Ball can play off-ball, an improving Ingram, and Lopez.  They won't be able to guard a statue and won't make they playoffs, but given that they have zero incentive to perform otherwise, they'll be better this year.

Injuries happen and player development has roadbumps, and I think it's possible LA finishes in the bottom 4-5, but If I had to bet my mortgage payment I'd bet on the Bulls, Pacers, Nets, Suns, and Hawks being worse than LA this year.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong though!

But their defense would need to make a massive leap for them to jump all those teams. The worst defensive team in the league (the Lakers the past 2 years) has won an average of 20.7 games over the last 10 years. The second worst defensive team has won an average of 24.6 games in the same span.

Who have the Lakers added that is going to drastically improve their defense to allow them to sta out of the bottom 5?

Re: I think we can safely say we won't get the Laker pick
« Reply #74 on: July 14, 2017, 04:56:06 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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Here's the thing - Lakers have incentive to be as good as possible because they are trying to convince two superstars to join them, and they don't own their pick.  They have no reason to tank, and actually have incentive to be good.

Bulls, Pacers, Suns, Hawks, Magic - all own their picks and figure to tank. 

Given those facts I don't think the Lakers have a shot and being bottom-5, which is what we need them to be. That's the way the arrows are pointing anyway.  And there is always the chance their ping-pong ball comes up and Celtics get their 2/3 pick.

The Nets had no reason to tank for the past two seasons.  That didn't stop them from finishing with the #3 and #1 lottery odds, though.  Having "no incentive to tank" doesn't magically make the team better.

You're absolutely correct, but it is part of the equation.  And The Lakers have Ball who looks like a special facilitator, KCP who can lock down the point so Ball can play off-ball, an improving Ingram, and Lopez.  They won't be able to guard a statue and won't make they playoffs, but given that they have zero incentive to perform otherwise, they'll be better this year.

Injuries happen and player development has roadbumps, and I think it's possible LA finishes in the bottom 4-5, but If I had to bet my mortgage payment I'd bet on the Bulls, Pacers, Nets, Suns, and Hawks being worse than LA this year.

Fingers crossed I'm wrong though!

Seriously, what in the world makes you think for ONE MINUTE that KCP, a VERY BELOW AVERAGE DEFENDER, can "lock down the point???????????????????"  First, KCP is a shooting guard and I seriously DOUBT has spent a lot of time guarding PG's!!!!

Secondly, for SG's, he is ranked 62nd or 63rd (for some reason, he is listed twice, perhaps to emphasize for you EXACTLY how BAD of a defender is truly is) out of 97 (really should be 96, as he is listed twice) SG's!!!

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/2

I really don't get where you are coming from.  Do you know things that the rest of us, likely including the entire NBA, do not know about KCP?:-)))))))))))

Smitty77