The Lakers were the worst defensive team in the league last season and getting Ball and Lopez doesn't help. They've also lost their best 3pt shooters (Williams, Young and Russell) so they'll probably fall to bottom 5 in the league. The West is loaded so most all of the bad teams are in the East so the Lakers only play them twice each. That is not a combination that is going to produce a lot of wins. I'll go with 25 wins but that could be on the high side.
This.
If the prospective starting lineup is Lopez, Randle, Ingram, Clarkson, Ball, that team is either going to be the worst defensive team in the league (for the 3rd straight year) or darn near close.
I just looked at the worst and 2nd worst defensive teams in the league over the last 10 years. There is this outlier, the 2010 Raptors, who had the worst defense in the league but won 40 games with the 5th best offense (built around Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu). But the next best team with the worst offense was the 2008 Bucks who won 26 games.
Of the tean years I looked at, the best record of a team with the 2nd worst defense was the 2013 Kings: 28 wins (12th offense).
So as long as the Lakers are as terrible on offense as they look like they will be (and as long as they don't have a top 5 offense), I think 28 wins is betting high.