This is the first year that I'm actually not super optimistic about the Nets pick. The last two years I expected top 5 picks, with the possibility for top 3.
This year I just don't have a handle on just how bad other teams are going to be. I know the Nets will be bottom ten for sure. I just don't have a good handle on whether it'll be more like 8 or 3.
Losing Lopez definitely hurts them. KCP probably helps a little. Healthy Jeremy Lin would help quite a bit. Overall, they still look like a bottom 5 team, but flukes can happen due to other teams tanking or dealing with injuries.