While I do believe he will ultimately sign with the Jazz, we shouldn't discount Miami. The lack of state tax allows him to make up much of that 5th year extra the Jazz will give him. We can't compete there. Also, there is no debate that the weather in Miami is much more desirable. Yes we are better prepared to win than the Heat are, however as much as we'd like to believe it not every player truly has that as his main priority. They all claim it is the case, but when the money is put in front of them the truth comes out.
So, if he is after money he stays in Utah with the Heat a close second. If he is after winning he comes to Boston or stays in Utah. (they are arguably just as good a team as we are only playing in the West which you won't beat the Warriors) If he is after lifestyle then he is headed to the Heat.
Therefore. The Heat can make a really good argument for money and lifestyle so they aren't out of it. I voted that he stays in Utah BTW...