I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:
Let's suppose the following:
This year, the cap is $99 million. We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward. Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.
Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.
Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie
(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie. Limited impact and not worth debating.)
This year's roster costs approximately $109 million. Under the luxury tax, which is good. But also a decent amount above the cap.
Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks. We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.
We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million. George and IT both get max salaries.
This leaves a roster of:
IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).
That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million. Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.
As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years. But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.
Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors. I would LOVE to be wrong. But it's a very, very large bill.
I think you are assuming IT will be getting a max. I can't see any team in the NBA giving him a max contract.
Plus if he wants to win a championship, I think he would be open to a more team friendly deal.
IT is a two-time All-Star, All-NBA, Top-5 MVP player. He's getting the max. But let's suppose he gets $23 million, which is about 75% of a max deal. That still leaves the Celtics with a luxury tax of $46 million, and an overall payroll + tax of more than $190 million. And again, the payroll will increase faster than the tax the following year, and then the following year, when Hayward, George, and non-max IT are still under contract, and Brown is now ready for his new deal the Celtics will be at the repeater tax, increase the amount by leaps and bounds, even if we assume Horford walks.
I'm not going to run all the numbers, but they get very large, very quickly. In either scenario, next year's tax is the smallest tax amount until Hayward's deal runs out. For perspective, the Celtics have paid $47 million in luxury tax total, over the 7 years they've paid the tax. Even if IT doesn't get the max, they about equal that in one season, and blow it out of the water the following two years.