How would you even pay George, Horford, IT, and Hayward?

[Phantom255x]

Simple. When negotiations all start, Ainge makes his counter offer:



And then you can make the other $$ off endorsements while competing for a championship. Great pitch! 

[saltlover]

I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:

Let's suppose the following:

This year, the cap is $99 million.  We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward.  Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.

Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.

Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie

(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie.  Limited impact and not worth debating.)

This year's roster costs approximately $109 million.  Under the luxury tax, which is good.  But also a decent amount above the cap.

Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks.  We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.

We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million.  George and IT both get max salaries.

This leaves a roster of:

IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).

That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million.  Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.

As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years.  But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.

Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors.  I would LOVE to be wrong.  But it's a very, very large bill.

I think you are assuming IT will be getting a max. I can't see any team in the NBA giving him a max contract.

Plus if he wants to win a championship, I think he would be open to a more team friendly deal.

IT is a two-time All-Star, All-NBA, Top-5 MVP player.  He's getting the max.  But let's suppose he gets $23 million, which is about 75% of a max deal.  That still leaves the Celtics with a luxury tax of $46 million, and an overall payroll + tax of more than $190 million.  And again, the payroll will increase faster than the tax the following year, and then the following year, when Hayward, George, and non-max IT are still under contract, and Brown is now ready for his new deal the Celtics will be at the repeater tax, increase the amount by leaps and bounds, even if we assume Horford walks.

I'm not going to run all the numbers, but they get very large, very quickly.  In either scenario, next year's tax is the smallest tax amount until Hayward's deal runs out.  For perspective, the Celtics have paid $47 million in luxury tax total, over the 7 years they've paid the tax.  Even if IT doesn't get the max, they about equal that in one season, and blow it out of the water the following two years.

[saltlover]

Celtics aren't going to pay a $75-$80 million luxury tax or anything close to it for multiple years. That would be the highest luxury tax in NBA history or very close to it. That's not happening. We don't have a Russian owner worth $10 billion, trying to make a big splash. 

Unless he takes way less than the max, this deal likely means the end for IT a year from now.

And when IT leaves, why isn't George signing a free agent deal in LA?

[CelticsElite]

How much more complicated would this all be had we drafted Fultz and his higher salary

[max215]

I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:

Let's suppose the following:

This year, the cap is $99 million.  We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward.  Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.

Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.

Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie

(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie.  Limited impact and not worth debating.)

This year's roster costs approximately $109 million.  Under the luxury tax, which is good.  But also a decent amount above the cap.

Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks.  We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.

We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million.  George and IT both get max salaries.

This leaves a roster of:

IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).

That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million.  Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.

As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years.  But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.

Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors.  I would LOVE to be wrong.  But it's a very, very large bill.

I'm with you on this. I believe Wyc is willing to pay the tax; there's a difference between paying the tax and paying the largest tax bill ever. The only way this really makes any sense is if they plan to dump Horford a year from now. However, I'm not sure if we'd be able to cover for his departure barring unexpected dominance from Zizic, nor would it be a great look to trade one of our big free agent signings.

[KGBirdBias]

Who is to say that Ainge doesn't unload one of the high picks and Horford next year in order to keep IT? He can attach it to a deal with the pick just like the Lakers did with Mosgov and Russell.

[Roy H.]

I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:

Let's suppose the following:

This year, the cap is $99 million.  We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward.  Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.

Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.

Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie

(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie.  Limited impact and not worth debating.)

This year's roster costs approximately $109 million.  Under the luxury tax, which is good.  But also a decent amount above the cap.

Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks.  We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.

We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million.  George and IT both get max salaries.

This leaves a roster of:

IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).

That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million.  Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.

As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years.  But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.

Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors.  I would LOVE to be wrong.  But it's a very, very large bill.

I think you are assuming IT will be getting a max. I can't see any team in the NBA giving him a max contract.

Plus if he wants to win a championship, I think he would be open to a more team friendly deal.

IT is a two-time All-Star, All-NBA, Top-5 MVP player.  He's getting the max.  But let's suppose he gets $23 million, which is about 75% of a max deal.  That still leaves the Celtics with a luxury tax of $46 million, and an overall payroll + tax of more than $190 million.  And again, the payroll will increase faster than the tax the following year, and then the following year, when Hayward, George, and non-max IT are still under contract, and Brown is now ready for his new deal the Celtics will be at the repeater tax, increase the amount by leaps and bounds, even if we assume Horford walks.

I'm not going to run all the numbers, but they get very large, very quickly.  In either scenario, next year's tax is the smallest tax amount until Hayward's deal runs out.  For perspective, the Celtics have paid $47 million in luxury tax total, over the 7 years they've paid the tax.  Even if IT doesn't get the max, they about equal that in one season, and blow it out of the water the following two years.

How much profit is CSNNE making? How much more will it make? What has ownership done with the profits from the last several seasons? How much does ownership get for every deep playoff game? What's it doing with the GE money? How much does the value of the franchise increase if we're perpetually in the Finals?

If Woj says Danny is going for it, I expect that he is.

[tstorey_97]

I think saltlover has illustrated clearly that Thomas salary 18/19 will not fit into this discussion.

I also suggest that Ainge has been planning for this moment for the last 24 months. Look at the team's salary structure. Look at trading out of the first pick. He's literally scraping for every million dollar bill he can find.

He has known who will stay and whom will be traded and who for. If he does this deal? I think it is worth it. The Celtics will be right in the middle of it having only used a portion of the assets he's piled up since the Brooklyn trade.

Was the Thomas trade rumor from last year's draft true? Ainge knew this day would come, he just didn't guess Thomas would have increased his value to such an extreme, regardless, Rondo and Perk were cheap and that is why they were on that team. IT isn't cheap and it isn't anybody's fault.

My guess if it happens, there will be another trade. I also suggest that if it happens, the Celtics will need a playoff caliber starting PG and who the heck would that be?

[obnoxiousmime]

I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:

Let's suppose the following:

This year, the cap is $99 million.  We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward.  Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.

Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.

Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie

(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie.  Limited impact and not worth debating.)

This year's roster costs approximately $109 million.  Under the luxury tax, which is good.  But also a decent amount above the cap.

Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks.  We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.

We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million.  George and IT both get max salaries.

This leaves a roster of:

IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).

That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million.  Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.

As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years.  But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.

Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors.  I would LOVE to be wrong.  But it's a very, very large bill.

I think you are assuming IT will be getting a max. I can't see any team in the NBA giving him a max contract.

Plus if he wants to win a championship, I think he would be open to a more team friendly deal.

IT is a two-time All-Star, All-NBA, Top-5 MVP player.  He's getting the max.  But let's suppose he gets $23 million, which is about 75% of a max deal.  That still leaves the Celtics with a luxury tax of $46 million, and an overall payroll + tax of more than $190 million.  And again, the payroll will increase faster than the tax the following year, and then the following year, when Hayward, George, and non-max IT are still under contract, and Brown is now ready for his new deal the Celtics will be at the repeater tax, increase the amount by leaps and bounds, even if we assume Horford walks.

I'm not going to run all the numbers, but they get very large, very quickly.  In either scenario, next year's tax is the smallest tax amount until Hayward's deal runs out.  For perspective, the Celtics have paid $47 million in luxury tax total, over the 7 years they've paid the tax.  Even if IT doesn't get the max, they about equal that in one season, and blow it out of the water the following two years.

How much profit is CSNNE making? How much more will it make? What has ownership done with the profits from the last several seasons? How much does ownership get for every deep playoff game? What's it doing with the GE money? How much does the value of the franchise increase if we're perpetually in the Finals?

If Woj says Danny is going for it, I expect that he is.

I hope you're right. But to play devil's advocate, by just adding one max player they could make deep playoff runs (but maybe not finals) the next few years without being a big luxury tax team. And after next season LeBron may not even be in the conference anymore, removing a big roadblock to the Finals. They could already make a lot of playoff money simply adding one star. This potential move to add TWO max guys while also keeping Thomas would be to match up against one team only - Golden State.

Of course, you can't really put an exact monetary amount on what a Finals appearance or win would be worth. There is so much ancillary benefit outside of ticket sales/merchandise/sponsorships etc.

I don't know how much the Warriors charge for their tickets compared to the Celtics, but it was reported they would make $12 million just to have another home game (game 5) in the Finals. It's possible they made 36 million total in three Finals home games. That's more than enough to pay a max salary right there!

I wonder if owners will start getting upset that the arms race is now to a point where 3 max guys isn't enough and that the cost of putting together a contending team seems higher than its ever been before.

[keevsnick]

I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:

Let's suppose the following:

This year, the cap is $99 million.  We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward.  Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.

Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.

Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie

(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie.  Limited impact and not worth debating.)

This year's roster costs approximately $109 million.  Under the luxury tax, which is good.  But also a decent amount above the cap.

Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks.  We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.

We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million.  George and IT both get max salaries.

This leaves a roster of:

IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).

That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million.  Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.

As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years.  But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.

Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors.  I would LOVE to be wrong.  But it's a very, very large bill.

I think you are assuming IT will be getting a max. I can't see any team in the NBA giving him a max contract.

Plus if he wants to win a championship, I think he would be open to a more team friendly deal.

IT is a two-time All-Star, All-NBA, Top-5 MVP player.  He's getting the max.  But let's suppose he gets $23 million, which is about 75% of a max deal.  That still leaves the Celtics with a luxury tax of $46 million, and an overall payroll + tax of more than $190 million.  And again, the payroll will increase faster than the tax the following year, and then the following year, when Hayward, George, and non-max IT are still under contract, and Brown is now ready for his new deal the Celtics will be at the repeater tax, increase the amount by leaps and bounds, even if we assume Horford walks.

I'm not going to run all the numbers, but they get very large, very quickly.  In either scenario, next year's tax is the smallest tax amount until Hayward's deal runs out.  For perspective, the Celtics have paid $47 million in luxury tax total, over the 7 years they've paid the tax.  Even if IT doesn't get the max, they about equal that in one season, and blow it out of the water the following two years.

How much profit is CSNNE making? How much more will it make? What has ownership done with the profits from the last several seasons? How much does ownership get for every deep playoff game? What's it doing with the GE money? How much does the value of the franchise increase if we're perpetually in the Finals?

If Woj says Danny is going for it, I expect that he is.

I hope you're right. But to play devil's advocate, by just adding one max player they could make deep playoff runs (but maybe not finals) the next few years without being a big luxury tax team. And after next season LeBron may not even be in the conference anymore, removing a big roadblock to the Finals. They could already make a lot of playoff money simply adding one star. This potential move to add TWO max guys while also keeping Thomas would be to match up against one team only - Golden State.

Of course, you can't really put an exact monetary amount on what a Finals appearance or win would be worth. There is so much ancillary benefit outside of ticket sales/merchandise/sponsorships etc.

I don't know how much the Warriors charge for their tickets compared to the Celtics, but it was reported they would make $12 million just to have another home game (game 5) in the Finals. It's possible they made 36 million total in three Finals home games. That's more than enough to pay a max salary right there!

I wonder if owners will start getting upset that the arms race is now to a point where 3 max guys isn't enough and that the cost of putting together a contending team seems higher than its ever been before.

Ya I mean there are three options here.

1) This rumor is flat out wrong, there is no big four about to form.
2) Wyc and Co are willing to pay what it takes.
3) They are gonna form the big four, and then go from there (drop Thomas or trade Horford next year).

I think the ownership realizes they are at least two players away, judging by comments to that effect they've made in the past. I think WOJ is the most connected journalist in ALL OF SPORTS. I think Ainge hoarding his cap space hard the last year+ because he knows that the margin for pulling off something like this is razor thin. These things make me feel the trade is real, what happens after that is up to the owners. 

[obnoxiousmime]

Regarding the idea of trading or letting Isaiah go after next season, I will point out that that was one of the big positives of drafting Fultz, he was Isaiah insurance. It may not even be the contract, maybe his play will start to suffer from injuries.

Even if they didn't think Fultz was all that, this draft was very PG heavy. It doesn't seem likely Ainge thought they were all bad.

Having a guy on his rookie deal be one of the starters would have been a good way to keep us from paying crazy tax fees. Right now the "plan" of George and Hayward would be eating up Brown and Tatum minutes, even if Brown starts playing some SG.

Oh well, I'm sure danny has it all figured out.

[BitterJim]

TP to the OP. This is an interesting question.

I mean, direct deposit would make the most sense, but what if IT has a thing for giant checks? Or Horford likes to put a bunch of dollar bills in a bath tub and then climb in? Does the team have a giant check department? Or do the players have to make arrangements with their bank themselves (through their agent, obviously)?

What if a player wants to keep their money FDIC insured? Does the team direct deposit  $250K into each account on a giant list? A lot to think about

[mef730]

I was going to start a thread on this, but I'll put it here:

Let's suppose the following:

This year, the cap is $99 million.  We move Rozier and Jackson, release don't resign all the others, to make room for Hayward.  Because he's excited to join the Celtics and Brad, he takes a pay cut of approximately $250k beneath the max to come along.

Then we trade Crowder, Bradley, the Lakers/SAC/Philly pick, and maybe something like the Clippers pick, and get George.

Our roster this year is:
IT
Smart
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Room exception
Euro-rookie
Euro-rookie

(You can replace other minimum salary types where I have the Euro-rookie.  Limited impact and not worth debating.)

This year's roster costs approximately $109 million.  Under the luxury tax, which is good.  But also a decent amount above the cap.

Next year we'll suppose that the room exception player walks, Smart walks, and one Euro-rookie walks.  We'll suppose that we get a little unlucky with the Nets pick and select 5th, we finish with the 3rd best record and pick 28th, and bring over Yabusele.

We'll also suppose that the cap is $102 million and the luxury tax is $123 million.  George and IT both get max salaries.

This leaves a roster of:

IT
George
Hayward
Horford
Brown
Tatum
Zizic
Yabusele
Semi
Nader
Allen
Bird
Nets 2018
Celtics 2018
Euro-rookie year 2 (or anyone else on a minimum deal).

That roster has a payroll of just over $150 million, with a luxury tax of approximately $75 million.  Pretty much the entire roster is under contract for the following season as well, with salary increases that will outpace any increase in the luxury tax, leading to an even larger payroll and tax bill the following year.

As a fan, I would love it if ownership paid that much, because we'd have a true title contender for several years.  But, while the franchise has hit the luxury tax before, they've never paid a tax bill that's 50% on top of payroll, and that's what would likely happen in a Hayward+George scenario.

Accordingly, it's why I have trouble believing these rumors.  I would LOVE to be wrong.  But it's a very, very large bill.

TP. I vote that we pin this post to the top of every sub-forum for easy access.

Mike

[Tr1boy]

Huh?

you worry about that next offseason

If the Celtics win a championship or make it to the Finals.... PG13 and IT4 are going to be paid by somebody

[Tr1boy]

Celtics aren't going to pay a $75-$80 million luxury tax or anything close to it for multiple years. That would be the highest luxury tax in NBA history or very close to it. That's not happening. We don't have a Russian owner worth $10 billion, trying to make a big splash. 

Unless he takes way less than the max, this deal likely means the end for IT a year from now.

no but Wyc better pay something

he has had the luxury of having a modest payroll for years