Rudy Gobert: "Bust potential goes automatically up 50% when you're from Europe."

[Androslav]

https://twitter.com/rudygobert27

It was a funny tweet to me. Funny, but truthful, I thought after I first read it. Maybe it is cause I am from Europe, maybe cause it is true.

Let's see how many Euros were selected in the lottery in the last 3-15 years. If guys are selected as 26th or 43rd pick it is hard to call him a bust if he stayed in Europe and got more cash there so we will stick to the higher picks. Also, it is hard to evaluate guys that have been in the league for several months or just a few years.

2002
Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5)- Bust
2003
Darko Miličić (2) - Bust
Mickaël Piétrus (11) - OK role player, bit high of a pick, but not a bust.
2004
Andris Biedriņš (11) - Bust, he did start 311/516 games but was only effective until the age of 22.
2005
Fran Vázquez (11) - Bust by NBA standards, he never came. O.K.ish in Europe.
Yaroslav Korolev (12) - Bust, 34 games total.
2006
Andrea Bargnani (1) - Bust
Thabo Sefolosha (13) - He did OK. started on a good OKC teams, not a bad outcome for no 13.
2007
2008
Danilo Gallinari (6) - Starter quality player. that is a good value for the 6th pick.
2009
Ricky Rubio (5) - Low-end starter, underwhelming development.
2010
2011
Enes Kanter (3) - Bust - Backup level guy for the 3rd pick, not my preference.
Jonas Valančiūnas (5) - Low-end starter, will probably lose the job in the next 2/3 years
Jan Veselý (6) - Bust.
2012
2013
Alex Len (5)- Bust.

So, looking only at the lottery, Frank Ntilikina's (8.) draft place, we have 5 median outcomes, and 9 busts. Rudy isn't' looking smart so far...also scouts, GMs, and owners did a poor job selecting Euro talent.

Part 2 coming on later.

[A Future of Stevens]

I don't know where you got Noah as a Euro player, but he isn't.

He was born in NYC to people of European descent, played HS ball at united nations international prep (in NYC,) played college ball at Florida, and was drafted.

The only thing Euro about him is his dual (technically tri-) citizenship.

That isnt a Euro prospect in my book.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Joakim Noah is American.

Also, Brazil is not in Europe.

[saltlover]

Don't know how you could leave Andrea Bargnani off this list.

[dreamgreen]

Don't know how you could leave Andrea Bargnani off this list.

I was thinking this! Also I'm the first vote, bang!!

[Eddie20]

The game is truly global now and with it you have far fewer misses and a result of expanded international scouting. Since 2013 the following foreign born/foreign blooded players have been drafted Giannis, Gobert, Adams, Schroder, Wiggins, Embiid, Saric, Nurkic, Jokic, Capela, Towns (has played for DR in global games), Porzingis, Hernangomez bros, Simmons, Bender, Maker, Zizic, Yabu, Skal, Hield, Murray, etc.

[Androslav]

I don't know where you got Noah as a Euro player, but he isn't.

He was born in NYC to people of European descent, played HS ball at united nations international prep (in NYC,) played college ball at Florida, and was drafted.

The only thing Euro about him is his dual (technically tri-) citizenship.

That isnt a Euro prospect in my book.

I stand corrected. I see his father playing tennis with french flag beside his name. Got that tattoo'd in my brain.

[Smokeeye123]

Wheres Kristaps? I would argue US players are just as likely to bust

[Moranis]

I disagree pretty heavily with your assessment on players.  It seems you are taking a very hard line approach to prove your point rather than looking at things realistically. 

[MBunge]

The game is truly global now and with it you have far fewer misses and a result of expanded international scouting. Since 2013 the following foreign born/foreign blooded players have been drafted Giannis, Gobert, Adams, Schroder, Wiggins, Embiid, Saric, Nurkic, Jokic, Capela, Towns (has played for DR in global games), Porzingis, Hernangomez bros, Simmons, Bender, Maker, Zizic, Yabu, Skal, Hield, Murray, etc.

It is deliberately deceptive to include guys like Wiggins and Embiid, who played basketball in America, in a discussion of foreign scouting and player evaluation.  What we're talking about is guys like Dante Exum who was picked before Smart, Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, Elfrid Payton, Zach Lavine and Rodney Hood and whether that kind of a draft miss is more common than with guys who play in America.

Mike

[Androslav]

I disagree pretty heavily with your assessment on players.  It seems you are taking a very hard line approach to prove your point rather than looking at things realistically.

Please elaborate. My metodology was looking back at lottery picks in the last 15-3 years. I corelates with Frank being selected 8th by the Knicks. I haven't made my point yet.

[furball]

After actually looking at the tweet I want to change my vote.  Do I think you are more likely to bust if you are from Europe?  No.  Do I think people think you are? Yes. 

[ETNCeltics]

Bargnani isn't a bust, at least not the way I would define a bust. He was a big disappointment, no doubt, but a guy who scores 15-20 a game for several years and stays in the league a decade, even though is D was awful, isn't really a bust.

A bust is Gregg Oden, who barely even stepped foot on the floor, or Kwame Brown or Anthony Bennett, barely playing and putting up 4 points a game. Or Thomas Robinson (is he even still in the league?).

Just looking back a few years, I don't see that Euro players are any more likely to (totally) bust than American players.

I know this. Give me a Euro by the name of Doncic in next year's draft and I'll take my chances.

[Moranis]

I disagree pretty heavily with your assessment on players.  It seems you are taking a very hard line approach to prove your point rather than looking at things realistically.

Please elaborate. My metodology was looking back at lottery picks in the last 15-3 years. I corelates with Frank being selected 8th by the Knicks. I haven't made my point yet.

Biedrins for example, most definitely not a bust.  I think you are underselling Valanciunas, Rubio, and a few others as well. 

Not all lottery picks are created equal.  There are very clear dividing lines.  Biedrins is 17th all time in winshares from 11th picks.  He is 5th all time in rebounds per game from 11th picks.   This is of course not accounting for his serious injury which basically ended his career.  Prior to that injury he had improved every single season and was coming off of a 12/11 season, which for a lottery pick is quite good, let alone the 11th pick in the draft. Biedrins is not a bust under any realistic evaluation of 11th picks, yet that is how you rank him.   

[Moranis]

Bargnani isn't a bust, at least not the way I would define a bust. He was a big disappointment, no doubt, but a guy who scores 15-20 a game for several years and stays in the league a decade, even though is D was awful, isn't really a bust.

A bust is Gregg Oden, who barely even stepped foot on the floor, or Kwame Brown or Anthony Bennett, barely playing and putting up 4 points a game. Or Thomas Robinson (is he even still in the league?).

Just looking back a few years, I don't see that Euro players are any more likely to (totally) bust than American players.

I know this. Give me a Euro by the name of Doncic in next year's draft and I'll take my chances.

I totally agree about Bargnani, sure he failed to live up to many other historical #1 picks, but it isn't like he wasn't effective for a long time.  And if you look at the top 10 from his draft, he probably goes 3 or 4 in a re-draft (depending on how you evaluate Roy) with only Aldridge and Gay clearly having better careers (again depending on what you do with Roy).  Only Redick would go ahead of him if you extended the range out to the top 20.  21-30 you have Lowry and Rondo and no one else that would go ahead of him in a re-draft.  So if you re-did the entire 2006 1st round, Bargnani still goes 6 or 7.  It is pretty hard to call him a bust given that.  Disappointment, sure, bust nope.