Author Topic: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA  (Read 3265 times)

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Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« on: June 25, 2017, 07:47:51 AM »

Offline revtodd64

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This comes from an interesting article in the Boston Herald about Philly's potential offensive problems without 3 PT shooters to space the floor.  Here is the excerpt about how few even top 10 prospects actually increase their 3 PT effectiveness even as they grow as players.  Bottom line: their are few Steph Curry types who make this leap:

Quote
Well, not always. In the previous 10 drafts, starting in 2007, 14 true guards were selected among the first five picks of their respective drafts from U.S. colleges. Not a single one of them — from Mike Conley in 2007 to Kris Dunn in 2016 — has an NBA career shooting percentage higher than his final season of college ball. Only three have higher career 3-point shooting percentages than they had in college. (Conley, 37.9 percent to 30.4; Bradley Beal, 39.9 percent to 33.9; Tyreke Evans, 29.5 percent to 27.4).


"Understanding that defense is much better in the NBA and the thr3ee-point line is a yard deeper, expecting great improvement in shooting percentage is a faint hope. If the most talented players in the draft can’t do it, who can? Even expanding the statistical range to include all guards taken among the top 10 picks during that span, a total of 34 players from U.S. colleges, only one has improved both his overall shooting percentage and his 3-point shooting percentage compared to college. And if you think there are a lot of Steph Currys out there, think again. He’s an exception to the rule in many ways."
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/06/bob_ford_sixers_made_the_layup_but_still_lack_outside_shooting

If this proves to be true for Celtics and Sixers, sounds like Danny did not hand the Sixers a dynasty, but rather there is the potential for injuries and lack of 3 PT shooting that can keep them good but not great. 

It makes me glad we drafted Tatem rather than Jackson, who likely will not develop into a great 2 way All Star level player.  Tatum has a talent and ability to shoot already and is the better bet over the long haul. 

Marcus Smart is likely already who he is going to be at the 3 Pt line.  It will be the other aspects of his game that will determine his progress-better work out of the post, movement without the ball and solid decision-making on the pick-and-roll.  I really enjoy watching Marcus and think he will be an important role player for years as a spark plug and doing the essential things, but a 3 PT shooting All Star Marcus Smart is, sadly, unlikely. 

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2017, 07:57:21 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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If Smarts works at it, and gets some professional help, he can improve his 3-pt%, but THIS is the off-season to make that improvement.  I'm not giving up on him yet.

Those stats only bear out what is intuitively obvious:  The pro 3-pt line is deeper and NBA defenses are better.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2017, 08:09:33 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Shooting can be improved.   Most guys think that they are all world and do not put in the time.   Sometimes they practice but are only practicing their bad habits.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2017, 08:11:41 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Shooting can be improved.   Most guys think that they are all world and do not put in the time.   Sometimes they practice but are only practicing their bad habits.
Agreed, that's why he needs a professional shooting coach.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2017, 09:25:23 AM »

Offline bdm860

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If that's your take away from that article, you're wrong.  The headline here at least is completely misleading.

14 players - not a big enough sample size.

Fultz actually shot 41% from 3 in college, he doesn't need to "improve" on that, just needs to
maintain that.

Of all of Philly's 4 main building blocks (Fultz, Simmons, Embiid, Saric) only 1 is a guard, and he's actually a good 3 point shooter! So what's the point of focusing on guards on who need to improve shooting?

Again the article focus on guards taken in the top 5 and top 10, but look outside of that just on the C's and we can see how untrue this is.  Look how many C's have improved their 3 point shot:

Isaiah Thomas: 34.9% final college season, 36.7% career NBA, 37.9% last year.
Jae Crowder: 34.5% final college season,  34.6% career, 39.8% last year.
Al Horford: 0% in college, 34.6% career, 35.5% last year
Jaylen Brown: 29.4% in college, 34.1% so far in NBA
Kelly Olynyk: 30% in final college season, 36.8% career NBA

Half the C's have improved their 3 point shooting, and guys like Rozier, Smart, and Bradley have maintained their shooting numbers (within 1% of their final college season).

So pretty much every player on the C's has improved or  maintained their 3 point shooting since their final college season.

Then even on Philly, the team that's being critiqued:
Embiid: 20% in college, 36.7% so far in NBA.

Plenty of players have increased their 3 point shooting from college to the NBA.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2017, 09:27:10 AM »

Offline LilRip

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Shooting can be improved.   Most guys think that they are all world and do not put in the time.   Sometimes they practice but are only practicing their bad habits.
Agreed, that's why he needs a professional shooting coach.

Didn't Marcus change his shot last year? I assume it takes more than a season to change your mechanics. I think he'll improve but not to a spectacular amount. But still an improvement to average for Smart will be big.
 
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Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2017, 09:39:39 AM »

Online tazzmaniac

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A really stupid article based on an idiotic statistical comparison of NBA career 3pt shooting percentage against a single season college 3pt percentage.  When you're shooting from 3 feet further away and against much better talent of course the percentages are going to go down. 

You can look at players early NBA seasons versus later seasons to see that they often improve as shooters.  Embiid during his 2 years recovering went from not shooting 3s in college to shooting 36.7% in his rookie NBA season.  Sometimes improvement can take quite a while.  Rondo, the poster boy for poor shooting, has shot during the last few seasons:  35.2% with Dallas, 36.5% with Kings and 37.6% with Bulls.  With the (over)emphasis on 3pt shooting nowadays, I'd expect more players to show 3pt shooting improvement and to do so earlier in their careers.   

As for the Sixers, they were starting McConnell who shot 25 3pt%.  If Fultz shoots 34-35 3pt% that is a big improvement for them.  Covington had his worst 3pt shooting season because he had shot horribly the 1st couple months.  I'd expect him to bounce back.  So they just need to add a shooter to their starting lineup of Simmons, Fultz, Covington and Embiid.  Maybe they get someone in free agency (e.g. Redick) or maybe it is Bayless or Kormaz.   

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2017, 10:09:36 AM »

Offline Cman

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If that's your take away from that article, you're wrong.  The headline here at least is completely misleading.

14 players - not a big enough sample size.

Fultz actually shot 41% from 3 in college, he doesn't need to "improve" on that, just needs to
maintain that.

Of all of Philly's 4 main building blocks (Fultz, Simmons, Embiid, Saric) only 1 is a guard, and he's actually a good 3 point shooter! So what's the point of focusing on guards on who need to improve shooting?

Again the article focus on guards taken in the top 5 and top 10, but look outside of that just on the C's and we can see how untrue this is.  Look how many C's have improved their 3 point shot:

Isaiah Thomas: 34.9% final college season, 36.7% career NBA, 37.9% last year.
Jae Crowder: 34.5% final college season,  34.6% career, 39.8% last year.
Al Horford: 0% in college, 34.6% career, 35.5% last year
Jaylen Brown: 29.4% in college, 34.1% so far in NBA
Kelly Olynyk: 30% in final college season, 36.8% career NBA

Half the C's have improved their 3 point shooting, and guys like Rozier, Smart, and Bradley have maintained their shooting numbers (within 1% of their final college season).

So pretty much every player on the C's has improved or  maintained their 3 point shooting since their final college season.

Then even on Philly, the team that's being critiqued:
Embiid: 20% in college, 36.7% so far in NBA.

Plenty of players have increased their 3 point shooting from college to the NBA.

Good points but I worry about selection. What about all the players that haven't remained in the league because their shooting hasn't improved?
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2017, 10:12:04 AM »

Offline Chris22

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There is a video of Tatum hitting 17 straight threes in practice.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2017, 04:49:47 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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There is a video of Tatum hitting 17 straight threes in practice.

I think you would be surprised how often that happens in a practice setting. Most moderately talented players don't miss in practice, it's actually kinda crazy to see in person.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2017, 04:55:44 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Fox got drafted way too high.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2017, 05:05:41 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Again the article focus on guards taken in the top 5 and top 10, but look outside of that just on the C's and we can see how untrue this is.  Look how many C's have improved their 3 point shot:

Isaiah Thomas: 34.9% final college season, 36.7% career NBA, 37.9% last year.
Jae Crowder: 34.5% final college season,  34.6% career, 39.8% last year.
Al Horford: 0% in college, 34.6% career, 35.5% last year
Jaylen Brown: 29.4% in college, 34.1% so far in NBA
Kelly Olynyk: 30% in final college season, 36.8% career NBA

Half the C's have improved their 3 point shooting, and guys like Rozier, Smart, and Bradley have maintained their shooting numbers (within 1% of their final college season).

So pretty much every player on the C's has improved or  maintained their 3 point shooting since their final college season.

Then even on Philly, the team that's being critiqued:
Embiid: 20% in college, 36.7% so far in NBA.

Plenty of players have increased their 3 point shooting from college to the NBA.

Good points! TP.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2017, 05:15:26 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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In what world is your analysis connected to this incredibly flawed article.

Firstoff, 14 players is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions.

Second, Fultz shot 41% from 3 in college. How is that a problem?

Also Tatum was the worst shooter from the top 4 according to college 3 point percentage.

This post doesn't make any sense.
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Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2017, 05:26:13 PM »

Offline loco_91

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As others have commented, 14 players is not a good sample. People who actually do this stuff for a living have much better ways to quantify improvement than "did 3p% for top-5 guards from the last 10 years go up or down?". I agree that Smart's 3pt shot probably is what it is (unless he improves shot selection), but this crappy sample of 14 players has nothing to do with it.

In Tatum's case, I would put money on his career 3p% beating his college 3p%, simply because he shot really well from the FT line in college, on much higher volume than he shot 3 pointers.

Re: Few players increase 3 PT% moving from college to NBA
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2017, 05:44:00 PM »

Offline Scintan

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The article doesn't really tell us anything we didn't already know.  Most (not all) people who can't shoot going in, can't shoot coming out.  That's not news.

The responses in the thread are pretty telling, though.


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