The (semi) Official 2017 Draft Prediction Thread

[celticinorlando]

http://nesn.com/2017/06/nba-rumors-celtics-flip-flopping-on-jayson-tatum-josh-jackson-with-no-3-pick/

Back and forth we go

Sounds like it is Tatum v Jackson with Tatum ahead because of his interview and workout

[Granath]

Unfortunately Danny trades down and picks Smith Jr.

Not gonna happen. If he wanted yet ANOTHER GAURD he'd kept the #1 pick n took Fultz

I dunno about that. If there's a binkie in this draft for me, it's Tatum and Smith (and I really liked Fultz too).

Really, the big knock on Smith was his injury. He's probably the most explosive PG in this draft and he put up great numbers last year with good shooting splits. IT may be the best guy in the league to mentor him on offense and being on a veteran team would help his learning curve on running the offense (as it did Rondo). The other knock on Smith was his defensive intensity but that was also a knock on Brown and we saw what being in this environment did to help him learn to play D.

Smith Jr. is only ever going to be a PG (unlike Fultz who can also play the 2) but this is a guy with the tools to really be a great one on both ends of the court. The tape is impressive and if Danny is sold on him then that's a decent reason to move down and get the guy he wants.

I still think it's Tatum though I'm hearing the name Jackson more often the last couple of hours.

[celticinorlando]

Unfortunately Danny trades down and picks Smith Jr.

Not gonna happen. If he wanted yet ANOTHER GAURD he'd kept the #1 pick n took Fultz

I dunno about that. If there's a binkie in this draft for me, it's Tatum and Smith (and I really liked Fultz too).

Really, the big knock on Smith was his injury. He's probably the most explosive PG in this draft and he put up great numbers last year with good shooting splits. IT may be the best guy in the league to mentor him on offense and being on a veteran team would help his learning curve on running the offense (as it did Rondo). The other knock on Smith was his defensive intensity but that was also a knock on Brown and we saw what being in this environment did to help him learn to play D.

Smith Jr. is only ever going to be a PG (unlike Fultz who can also play the 2) but this is a guy with the tools to really be a great one on both ends of the court. The tape is impressive and if Danny is sold on him then that's a decent reason to move down and get the guy he wants.

I still think it's Tatum though I'm hearing the name Jackson more often the last couple of hours.

My concern with Smith is they have the player already on the roster. Plus Smith at times disappeared on the court in big moments. And then the knee injury. If Boston was picking at 12-15...then sure...but they have a chance to get a big time wing that can help them. Can't pass it up unless they are trading it for a star

[perks-a-beast]

Celtics somehow come away with Tatum and Smith.

[jpotter33]

I still think a trade has to be in the plans.

If you think Hayward is the primary target this offseason, which is pretty much universally accepted, then how exactly are we going to have room for all four of Hayward, Crowder, Brown, and Tatum/Jackson, let alone having AB and Smart for the 2/3 positions that also take up time in small ball?

I know in today's NBA wings are really valued, but having two recent high draft picks means they need developmental time.

And Crowder is valuable enough with his contract that Danny isn't just going to ship him off for cap space. I think AB gets shipped off if anything.

I don't know. There just seems to be something bigger at play here.

[Erik]

I'm pretty sure that Jayson Tatum is a bust in the current NBA, and more specifically the Celtics offense. I've never been more unimpressed with a top 5 NBA prospect.

1) He lacks the speed to beat NBA players off the dribble. I've seen highlight after highlight that the guy basically does 4 jab steps and then pulls up for a shot... and he doesn't even shoot all that well. He rarely drives, and when he does, it's sooooo slow. That crap might work in college like James Young highlights, or if you're Paul Pierce with amazing timing and hesitation moves, but he's going to have a lot of trouble replicating his offense in the NBA. Once NBA teams realize the kid can't drive, they're going to play up on him and eliminate everything.

2) He plays ISO ball back to the basket (albeit very well). It's a dying art in the NBA for a reason. Unless your name is exactly Shaq and it's 2000, I'm not interested in your post game. Also... you're telling me we're going to pay IT and Hayward 30 mil each to stand around and watch this guy do post moves?

3) His defense is abysmal. Every time I see scouting videos that say "potential on D," I just think of the draftexpress video I saw of Jahlil Okafar saying "potential on D." (https://youtu.be/d_UMmoeQbVM?t=217) OK so because the guy is strong and has long arms, he's going to suddenly become a defensive force in the NBA when he couldn't guard people in college??

4) His ceiling is Carmelo Anthony -- a notorious ballstopper that plays 0 defense. We don't even want Carmelo for vet minimum, especially in Boston's PnR offense.

The clear and best choice for this draft is Josh Jackson OR Jonathan Issac and either package it for KP, or get your bigs in 2018 hopefully.

[Granath]

I've seen highlight after highlight...

There's your problem. Let us know when you've actually watched a game.

[Casperian]

Man, Erik, that's another TP for you.

For purely personal reasons, I'm hoping for another trade-down and Malik Monk out of left field.

[celticinorlando]

Quite a few of the national writers that cover college basketball all believe that Jackson is the best player in the draft and would take him over anyone.

[PaulP34]

In the end i predict Ainge to (1. keep the #3 pick and draft Jayson Tatum. Trade Crowder and Bradley along with both 018 Brooklyn, Lakers picks for KP. Sign Hayward to a 4 year max.

2018 starting lineup looks like this...

Isaiah Thomas
Jaylen Brown
Gordon Hayward
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis

[Granath]

In the end i predict Ainge to (1. keep the #3 pick and draft Jayson Tatum. Trade Crowder and Bradley along with both 018 Brooklyn, Lakers picks for KP. Sign Hayward to a 4 year max.

2018 starting lineup looks like this...

Isaiah Thomas
Jaylen Brown
Gordon Hayward
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis

Interesting prediction. It's also a massive overpay for KP as both Bradley and Crowder are worthy of lottery picks. That's 4 lottery picks (with 2 likely in the top 5) for KP.

That would also be a very thin bench. Unless we signed some vet FAs to min contracts your best big guys coming off the bench would be rookies - Tatum, Zizic and Yabu - and that's a recipe for disaster.

[dreamgreen]

Sticking with my Jackson prediction because I think trades are so hard and rarely happen for various reasons. The next 5 hours can't go by fast enough for the love of God!

[Granath]

Just a few more hours to get your prediction in before this gets closed. 

Bragging rights are at stake folks!

[CelticSooner]

Normally I would say Ainge drafts Jackson, he is the Danny Ainge prototypical draft pick. Since he never came in for a workout and Tatum did twice I think that swings my prediction to Tatum though. Ainge also said they want scoring something Tatum does better than Jackson at the moment.

[max215]

I'm going with draft and keep Tatum.

My secondary prediction is draft and keep Isaac. I'm not feeling the Jackson noise.