Trying to make sense of the Fultz deal (Explanation, possibility, expectations)

[Nef-Oracle]

Can we just use one dedicated draft thread and not have everyone with an opinion pop up something new with how they feel about this draft?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnFxAnbJD8A

^

Merging threads would be awesome. We currently have literally dozens of threads discussing the same topic and it is getting increasingly difficult to follow the conversation.

Just to be clear, nothing personal here against Nef-Oracle nor do I mean to hijack his thread. This is a fine post, I just feel it would help the discussion a lot if we kept the number of threads more limited.

No problem bro. It's a big deal so everybody is trying to figure out what Danny has in mind. I had an idea so I posted it there. Everyone is doing the same

[crimson_stallion]

Guys, I have a bit of a curveball theory here.

If you remeber not too long ago,  a report came out saying that one team in the top 3 had given Josh Jackson a promise that they'd draft him if he fell to them.

Now let's say that rumor was true...we already know this team wasn't Boston,  since Jackson never met with the Celtics.  That means it must be either Philly or the Lakers who have this promise.

The Lakers just gave Jackson a second workout and word is that it didn't go well AT ALL.  Now, if the Lakers already promised Jackson that they'd take him at #2, why bother even having a second workout?  It doesn't fit, so i dont imagine it's the Lakers.

That leaves Philly as the only team who could have likely made that promise,  right?   Now suddenly, after the world starts taking about Boston's interest in Jackson, Philly agrees to give up draft picks to move up in the draft? Could it be that they are moving up,  not to take Fultz, but to honour their promise to Jackson?

Could it be that Boston liked Fultz, Tatum and Jackson equally, with Jackson just slightly ahead,  but happy to go wider way?

They tell Philly that they are leaving towards taking Jackson,  Philly folds under the pressure,  gives in and trades up.

Now worst case Lakers take Fultz (very possible),  in which case Boston takes Tatum. 

Or best case,  Lakers select Ball and Boston takes Fultz.

IF Boston knows for sure that Philly is taking Jackson,  then that's basically a win-win for Boston.  They pick up an extra pick or two AND still get one of the two guys they wanted regardless, and saves a couple of million on the rookie contract...which helps them to after a max free agent.

If the rumours about Jackson getting a top 3 promise are true,  then this makes a lot of sense.

We all immediately assume that Philly is trading up to take Fultz, since so many people have him as the consensus #1 pick.   But if Philly love Jackson and really did make a draft promise to him,  and if everybody is convinced that the Lakers will draft Ball, then it would make total sense for Philly and Boston to make this trade - Philly gets Jackson, Lakers get Ball, Boston gets Fultz - everything works out as planned,  everybody gets the guy they want,  and Boston gets an extra pick or two out of it as assurance that evening works to plan.

Don't make sense for Philly to trade the LA pick if they wanted Jackson. They already have Saric, Simmons, Covington and a bunch of guys I dont remember having a jump shot who play at the same spot. Plus his workout with LA didn't go well at ALL so they could've had him at 3 w/o a problem. On the other hand LA could draft him because... well it's the Lakers and Magic is the gm. He will try to p--- us off by drafting him and I kinda think that's what Danny is waiting so he can pick Ball and trade him to Sacto for more picks and get his defense first guy in Fox or DSJ

You're talking about the same Philly team who took Simmons when they already had Saric, Okafor,  Embiid and Noel.  This does not appear to be a team that it too concerned about position of need when drafting - they seem to always go for best player available.   If they feel Jackson is that guy (for some God forsaken reason)  then it's not out of the question that they might move up to take him.

And while it's true that he reportedly didn't impress the Lakers in that second workout (struggled with his shot and handle - such a surprise!),  Jackson is the prototypical type of player Danny Ainge tends to love.  Boston man well be struggling to decide between Jackson, Fultz and Tatum and may still be undecided on which way to go - if Philly really wants Jackson badly,  they might not be willing to take the chance of waiting to see if both Boston and LA pass on him.

Remeber also - while LA were disappointed by Jackson,  they weren't impressed with Ball either.   Even if Boston did take Fultz, Lakers woukd be stuck between Jackson,  Ball and Tatun and may well decide to take a gamble on Jackson.

It would if course depend on how high Philly is on Jackson.   If they like him a little bit more then the others they probably don't do the trade,  but if they are strongly convinced that hes the highest upside guy in the draft then they might be willing to sacrifice a future pick or two in order to make sure they get him.

[CelticSooner]

Philly are taking Fultz. Even if they didn't LA would so it's a moot point.

[CelticSooner]

Philly is taking Fultz. Even if they didn't LA would so it's a moot point.

[RGow8]

I have a feeling Danny thinks Smith Jr. will be better than Fultz. And I'm in the minority but  I agree, barring injury I think he is going to be a monster and somebody other teams are sleeping on.He thinks we can pick up other great assests with still getting the better player at the position.

[bopna]

This trade also shows DA has enough confidence in yr 3 Rozier than any pg's available in this draft.

My question really is this...

Do we really need to trade for Jimmy Butler if we are to get Jackson/Tatum who by all accounts are a clone to what we would get in Butler only cheaper and of course being inexpirience?. We would even have to give up Crowder or AB to match salaries which may deplete our bench....Thoughts?

[RGow8]

I have a feeling Danny thinks Smith Jr. will be better than Fultz. And I'm in the minority but  I agree, barring injury I think he is going to be a monster and somebody other teams are sleeping on.He thinks we can pick up other great assests with still getting the better player at the position. I know we have IT but Smith Jr. is going to be electric in the NBA. Trade the 3 to the Kings for 5 and 10 and get Smith Jr. and Collins or Lauri.

[tonydelk]

Having the top pick doesn't guarantee you the best player.  This is not a draft where there is a lebron james or Kevin Durant.  This draft to me is close on talent of the 2010 draft.  So many good players in top 10.  There have not been many drafts in the last 10 years that have generational talents.  Most of the drafts the best player was not picked at 1.  This draft is just the same.  No generational talent but deep.  The best player will most likely not be Fultz.  Danny knows this.  Brad knows this.  Next year has that potential to have multiple generational talent type players and that is why this move was made.  I trust the scouting of the celtics and if they feel the best player is not Fultz and they can walk away with the best player in this draft and a future asset they I trust them.  They could be wrong but if you look below a lot of teams were with the picks they made.

2009 - Blake 1, Harden 3, Curry 7

2010 - Wall 1, turner 2, favors 3, Cousins 5, Hayward 9, George 10,

2011 - Kyrie 1, dwill 2, kanter 3, klay 11, kawai 15, jimmy butler 30.  Kawai is the best in the draft with Klay and Jimmy Butler close to Kyrie

2012 - Take out the generational talent of AD and the next 3 are MKG, Beal, Waiters.  Lillard went 6 who outside of AD is the best pick, drummand 9

2013 - Bennett 1, dipo 2, porter 3, mccollum 10. greek freak 15 who is by far best pick. gobert 27

2014 - Wiggens 1, Parker 2, Embid 3 which may be the best pick in this draft, nurkik 16

[Surferdad]

This trade also shows DA has enough confidence in yr 3 Rozier than any pg's available in this draft.

My question really is this...

Do we really need to trade for Jimmy Butler if we are to get Jackson/Tatum who by all accounts are a clone to what we would get in Butler only cheaper and of course being inexpirience?. We would even have to give up Crowder or AB to match salaries which may deplete our bench....Thoughts?

C's would likely have to send the #3 pick to Chicago (plus other picks, plus matching salaries among Crowder/AB/Zeller to make the deal), so you don't get Jackson/Tatum 

[tonydelk]

This trade also shows DA has enough confidence in yr 3 Rozier than any pg's available in this draft.

My question really is this...

Do we really need to trade for Jimmy Butler if we are to get Jackson/Tatum who by all accounts are a clone to what we would get in Butler only cheaper and of course being inexpirience?. We would even have to give up Crowder or AB to match salaries which may deplete our bench....Thoughts?

C's would likely have to send the #3 pick to Chicago (plus other picks, plus matching salaries among Crowder/AB/Zeller to make the deal), so you don't get Jackson/Tatum 

I don't want butler if it means giving up a high pick.  He's signed for 2 more years and it doesn't guarantee he will be here after that.  If Tatum or Jackson are the pick and in 2-3 years are on par with 2017-2017 butler then they have 10 more years of that player versus 2-5 of butler.  We know how good Butler is.  He will only regress with age.  the young pick will only improve with age.

[Nef-Oracle]

Guys, I have a bit of a curveball theory here.

If you remeber not too long ago,  a report came out saying that one team in the top 3 had given Josh Jackson a promise that they'd draft him if he fell to them.

Now let's say that rumor was true...we already know this team wasn't Boston,  since Jackson never met with the Celtics.  That means it must be either Philly or the Lakers who have this promise.

The Lakers just gave Jackson a second workout and word is that it didn't go well AT ALL.  Now, if the Lakers already promised Jackson that they'd take him at #2, why bother even having a second workout?  It doesn't fit, so i dont imagine it's the Lakers.

That leaves Philly as the only team who could have likely made that promise,  right?   Now suddenly, after the world starts taking about Boston's interest in Jackson, Philly agrees to give up draft picks to move up in the draft? Could it be that they are moving up,  not to take Fultz, but to honour their promise to Jackson?

Could it be that Boston liked Fultz, Tatum and Jackson equally, with Jackson just slightly ahead,  but happy to go wider way?

They tell Philly that they are leaving towards taking Jackson,  Philly folds under the pressure,  gives in and trades up.

Now worst case Lakers take Fultz (very possible),  in which case Boston takes Tatum. 

Or best case,  Lakers select Ball and Boston takes Fultz.

IF Boston knows for sure that Philly is taking Jackson,  then that's basically a win-win for Boston.  They pick up an extra pick or two AND still get one of the two guys they wanted regardless, and saves a couple of million on the rookie contract...which helps them to after a max free agent.

If the rumours about Jackson getting a top 3 promise are true,  then this makes a lot of sense.

We all immediately assume that Philly is trading up to take Fultz, since so many people have him as the consensus #1 pick.   But if Philly love Jackson and really did make a draft promise to him,  and if everybody is convinced that the Lakers will draft Ball, then it would make total sense for Philly and Boston to make this trade - Philly gets Jackson, Lakers get Ball, Boston gets Fultz - everything works out as planned,  everybody gets the guy they want,  and Boston gets an extra pick or two out of it as assurance that evening works to plan.

Don't make sense for Philly to trade the LA pick if they wanted Jackson. They already have Saric, Simmons, Covington and a bunch of guys I dont remember having a jump shot who play at the same spot. Plus his workout with LA didn't go well at ALL so they could've had him at 3 w/o a problem. On the other hand LA could draft him because... well it's the Lakers and Magic is the gm. He will try to p--- us off by drafting him and I kinda think that's what Danny is waiting so he can pick Ball and trade him to Sacto for more picks and get his defense first guy in Fox or DSJ

You're talking about the same Philly team who took Simmons when they already had Saric, Okafor,  Embiid and Noel.  This does not appear to be a team that it too concerned about position of need when drafting - they seem to always go for best player available.   If they feel Jackson is that guy (for some God forsaken reason)  then it's not out of the question that they might move up to take him.

And while it's true that he reportedly didn't impress the Lakers in that second workout (struggled with his shot and handle - such a surprise!),  Jackson is the prototypical type of player Danny Ainge tends to love.  Boston man well be struggling to decide between Jackson, Fultz and Tatum and may still be undecided on which way to go - if Philly really wants Jackson badly,  they might not be willing to take the chance of waiting to see if both Boston and LA pass on him.

Remeber also - while LA were disappointed by Jackson,  they weren't impressed with Ball either.   Even if Boston did take Fultz, Lakers woukd be stuck between Jackson,  Ball and Tatun and may well decide to take a gamble on Jackson.

It would if course depend on how high Philly is on Jackson.   If they like him a little bit more then the others they probably don't do the trade,  but if they are strongly convinced that hes the highest upside guy in the draft then they might be willing to sacrifice a future pick or two in order to make sure they get him.

Thing is management changed and they have more talent at the moment than before. Simmons was the top pick, they didn't have a playmaker so they took him. Now they need shooter and Fultz can do it and make plays, they have cap space to sign Reddick or whomever. They are ready to compete and have enough pick to add more talent. They didn't trade up for Jackson

[Nef-Oracle]

Philly are taking Fultz. Even if they didn't LA would so it's a moot point.

Exactly

[Nef-Oracle]

I have a feeling Danny thinks Smith Jr. will be better than Fultz. And I'm in the minority but  I agree, barring injury I think he is going to be a monster and somebody other teams are sleeping on.He thinks we can pick up other great assests with still getting the better player at the position. I know we have IT but Smith Jr. is going to be electric in the NBA. Trade the 3 to the Kings for 5 and 10 and get Smith Jr. and Collins or Lauri.

Smith would've been a top pick if not for is injury. Still he was lite this year and people sleeping on him regardless. He posted a 48' inch vert during his workout with LA I think, definitely better than Fox, better play maker. If we can trade down again and get him we definitely won the draft

[Nef-Oracle]

This trade also shows DA has enough confidence in yr 3 Rozier than any pg's available in this draft.

My question really is this...

Do we really need to trade for Jimmy Butler if we are to get Jackson/Tatum who by all accounts are a clone to what we would get in Butler only cheaper and of course being inexpirience?. We would even have to give up Crowder or AB to match salaries which may deplete our bench....Thoughts?

Personally I don't want us to trade for Butler, well likely loose Crowder and/or Bradley and we can't live without them. Butler is good but nowhere near as good as them defensively (Bradley) and shooting wise. Plus we can sign Hayward and keep the picks.

[knuckleballer]

I'm guessing there are two reasons Danny made the trade.

1.  He likes a couple of other players as much or close to as much as Fultz.  Probably Jackson and Tatum.

2.  There is some impressive size at the top of next years draft which something we are lacking.

According to DraftExpress, 3 of the top 4 in next year's draft are:

Porter - 6'10', 7' wingspan
Ayton - 7'0", 7'5" wingspan
Bamba - 7'0", 7'9" wingspan

By getting the LA pick along with Brooklyn's pick, we have a very good shot at getting one of these guys.