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Draft Tiers are Here!
« on: June 14, 2017, 07:36:58 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Courtesy of Larbrd, this draft is setting records for Tier 2 and tier 3 prospects. 8 Tier two prospects is a new record!

 Tier 1 (Potential superstars)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
Last draft we had just one player in this category: Ben Simmons. The year before that, Karl-Anthony Towns was the only player here.

This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars or franchise players. Only six other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Blake Griffin, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker -- have been ranked in this slot.

Fultz was unanimously nominated for tier 1 by the NBA scouts and executives I polled for this piece. Ball was more polarizing for sure, but he still got a majority of the votes for tier 1.

Three other players -- Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum -- received votes for tier 1.

Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke
This is the largest tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.

In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.

Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only tier 1 and tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some tier 3 votes, but the majority were tier 2. Zach Collins received a lot of votes in tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.

Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.

Tier 3 (NBA starters)
OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville
This is a solid tier 3, but with the exception of Zach Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.

Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.

The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.

Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.

Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Jarrett Allen, C, Fr., Texas
Ike Anigbogu, C, Fr., UCLA
John Collins, PF, So., Wake Forest
Justin Patton, C, Fr., Creighton
This is a smaller tier 4 group than usual.

Teams are really all over the place on these guys. John Collins received a lot of votes for tier 3 (and none in tier 5), but the majority of teams had these players ranked in tier 4.

All three of the others -- Allen, Anigbogu and Patton -- barely made the cut into tier 4, with just over 50 percent voting them in tier 4 and the rest in tier 5. None of them received tier 3 votes.

Tier 5 (Rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Fr., Kentucky
Tony Bradley, C, Fr., North Carolina
Terrance Ferguson, SG, Australia
Frank Jackson, G, Fr., Duke
Justin Jackson, SF, Jr., North Carolina
TJ Leaf, PF, Fr., UCLA
Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Latvia
Ivan Rabb, PF, Fr., Cal
Caleb Swanigan, PF, So. Purdue
D.J. Wilson, PF, Jr., Michigan
This next group is a bit small for a tier 5, but it's small in part because of how big the top three tiers are. This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench.

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In this draft, that's roughly picks Nos. 20-30. A few players in this tier received tier 4 votes. They included Jackson, Leaf and Pasecniks. And a couple of players on this list received tier 6 votes, including Rabb and Swanigan.

Tier 6 (potential first-rounders)
Jordan Bell, PF, Jr., Oregon
Jonah Bolden, SF, Australia
Thomas Bryant, F/C, So. Indiana
Jawun Evans, PG, So., Oklahoma State
Josh Hart, SG, Sr., Villanova
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Germany
Tyler Lydon, SF, So., Syracuse
Semi Ojeleye, F, Jr., SMU
Alec Peters, F, Sr., Valpariso
Monte Morris, PG, Sr., Iowa State
Devin Robinson, SF, Jr., Florida
Derrick White, PG, Jr., Colorao
This tier has the players that at least one team told me they had ranked in their top 30. A few -- Bell, Evans, Hartenstein, Lydon and Ojeyle -- got tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect, but the teams that run it have found that it improves their performance. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

17
TheFriesofHorus • 2h
Lol a Lakers fan posted a link to the ESPN insider article but only included the fact that Ball was a tier 1 rank...

edit: went back and looked and he at least copped to leaving Fultz out in the comments...

2
LarBrd33 • 1h
Giles is still a guy I'd be excited to gamble on. He might be a total bust and his knees are a concern, but he's the definition of high risk/high reward. They have him as tier 3 (Jaylen's tier last year) but admit that based on talent he'd be tier 1 or 2. If we decide we need to move Bradley and have to settle for a lotto pick outside the top 10, I'd get on board if the pick resulted in a Giles gamble

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2017, 07:43:18 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Glad we're in tier 1. Would be cool to move up into tier 2


Can't believe we are adding a franchise player/ potential superstar to a #1 seed team that was 7 wins from a banner

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2017, 08:00:01 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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2nd guard in 9 years to be unanimous tier 1. Money.

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2017, 08:21:40 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Notice the absence of Kyrie, McCollum, Lillard, and Russell.

Now thats not to say that Fultz will be better than those guys, but coming out of college he is seen as a better prospect than them.

Im interested to see how many of those other tier 1 guys were unanimous.
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Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2017, 08:46:00 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Also for perspective, last year Jaylen Brown was a Tier 3, with Ingram the only Tier 2.

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2017, 10:45:37 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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Glad we're in tier 1. Would be cool to move up into tier 2


Can't believe we are adding a franchise player/ potential superstar to a #1 seed team that was 7 wins from a banner





 I like some Tier 5 guy's. Bam, tJ Leaf, that should be easy to do.

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2017, 11:18:35 PM »

Offline The One

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I tear up when I think that we are getting a TIER 1 player!!

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2017, 11:35:13 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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TP for the post and shout out to our fallen brother LB33

Also Bolden will shoot up draft boards much like Yabu did.  He just won the award in the Adriatic League whose last 3 winners before him were Porzingis, Jokic and Zizic.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 11:43:15 PM by Quetzalcoatl »

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2017, 11:47:04 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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2nd guard in 9 years to be unanimous tier 1. Money.

The success rate of previous tier 1 players is really, really encouraging!

The other thing that surprised me is that some of the really great young guards were able to produce above league average even at age 19 or 20, with substantial minutes. I'm not just talking about volume numbers, but at least league-average efficiency and sometimes significantly better.

In his first year, Kyrie shot 49% from 2, 39% from 3, scoring 18.5/game, PER 21.4.
Chris Paul only shot 46% from 2, but dished 8 assists/game against 2 TOs, PER of 22.1.

So, that becomes, to my mind, a realistic ceiling for Fultz. Especially if he's playing shorter minutes around more talented players in a good system. Probably fewer points on lower usage, but similar efficiency. I'm not sure he's going to reach that because he's so young, and some scouts say his body is still a little thin and not quite NBA-ready. But we're talking ceiling, so I'm aiming high.

Two guys not quite as good right away but still respectable:

Derrick Rose shot 49% from 2, averaging 16.8/game, and dished almost 6 assists, PER 16.0.
John Wall did not shoot well - 42.4% from 2, but managed a PER of 16.8, probably because he was pretty good right away at getting to the line - 6 trips/game.

The ascent for these guys in years 2 and 3 was pretty sharp. So we really might have something in Fultz while he's still really young. We can hope...
« Last Edit: June 15, 2017, 12:06:44 AM by Sophomore »

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2017, 11:52:43 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Lonzo Ball is going to be a flop of a tier 1 prospect. Still don't get the love.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
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PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2017, 11:55:56 PM »

Offline nostar

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2
LarBrd33 • 1h
Giles is still a guy I'd be excited to gamble on. He might be a total bust and his knees are a concern, but he's the definition of high risk/high reward. They have him as tier 3 (Jaylen's tier last year) but admit that based on talent he'd be tier 1 or 2. If we decide we need to move Bradley and have to settle for a lotto pick outside the top 10, I'd get on board if the pick resulted in a Giles gamble

I feel similarly. I don't know if we'll end up trading Avery or not, but if we moved him for some front court help and a late-lotto pick this year, I'd kind of understand. He's going to get paid and we might not want to pay him.

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2017, 12:02:10 AM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Lonzo Ball is going to be a flop of a tier 1 prospect. Still don't get the love.
I don't see Ball as tier 1.  There are too many concerns with Ball including his shooting.   How successful he is will depend on where he goes.  I think the Sixers would be a better fit for him than the Lakers. 

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2017, 02:57:39 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Where'd you find LarBrd33?

Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2017, 04:15:08 AM »

Offline chambers

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Lonzo Ball is going to be a flop of a tier 1 prospect. Still don't get the love.
I don't see Ball as tier 1.  There are too many concerns with Ball including his shooting.   How successful he is will depend on where he goes.  I think the Sixers would be a better fit for him than the Lakers.

Yeah great open court transition player, not much 1v1 skill in the half court other than elite shooting.
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Re: Draft Tiers are Here!
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2017, 05:36:51 AM »

Offline mef730

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Glad we're in tier 1. Would be cool to move up into tier 2


Can't believe we are adding a franchise player/ potential superstar to a #1 seed team that was 7 wins from a banner





 I like some Tier 5 guy's. Bam, tJ Leaf, that should be easy to do.

Wow, Ivan Rabb has really had a fall from grace.

Kind of hoping that Jordan Bell falls to the second round. He's Tier 6.

Mike