Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz. Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.
There's risk in every strategy. Free agency isn't safe. Trading isn't safe. Using the pick ourselves isn't the only risky option.
You measure the risk/reward in every potential path and take the one that makes the most sense. Drafting Fultz is certainly a defensible move, and you don't need a fever to prefer it over trading the pick.
Exactly. I'm not advocating trading the pick (although I would for the right return), just pointing out that there is real risk involved in either strategy. I do think many here underestimate the risk in picks, and hence overvalue them.
That's the gamble of the draft.
Even in a draft perceived as deep as this, with prospects as sure-fire as Fultz, you still just dont know.
How many people spoke of Wiggins, Ingram and Embiid as the future Lebron / Durant / Hakeem? Most people considered those guys to be sure-fire future stars, and so far all have had rocky starts and failed to live up to the hype so far. Embiid seems the most likely of the three, but he's equally likely to go the route of Greg Oden and never play a full season.
Even the most certain of prospects can bust out, but an All-Star is (and will remain) an All-Star unless you get very unlucky and that guys gets hit with a season ending injury.
Thats the trade off.
By trading the pick for an established young star you're taking the safe route - you have more certainty now, at the cost of future upside (since you probably have a good idea how good those guys could get by now) and higher salary requirements.
By keeping the pick you risk selecting a bust, but your taking that risk on the hope you luck out and up with a franchise player on a cost controlled salary for the next 4-8 years.
Lots of people also make the mistake of believing that a rookie can't contribute to a playoff team for years. Damian Lillard and Carmelo Anthony put up 20 PPG as rookies, while many other rookies (like Wade, Wall, Beal, Wiggins, Towns) had very productive rookie seasons.
In fact from memory the Heat won a title in Wade's second or third year, and Wade was clearly the best player on that team - even Shaq officially declared that it was Wade's team.
From menory the Blazers also had a very good year led by Aldridge and a 2nd or 3rd year Lillard.
So as much as we shouldn't expect Fultz to be a difference maker next year, we shouldn't count it out either. He's got that level of talent.
As for Ainges comments about pack of separation at the top of the draft, let's not forget that in 2003 Pat Riley had a great deal of difficulty deciding whether to draft Dwyane Wade or Chris Kaman. He believed Wade had higher upside, but was concerned by his lack of ball handling skills and jumper. he felt Kaman was the safer pick and was at a position of need, so he was very torn. From memory his gut feeling told him to take Wade, and the rest is history.
Just goes to show how difficult the draft is to predict.
If you trade the lock for Butler/George and Fultz ends up the next Dangelo Russell, then you're happy. If you make that trade and Fultz ends up the next Lillard, you can live with that. Butler and George are ultimately just as good, so all you've lost is a few years of rookie salary. If you make they trade and Fultz ends up the next Wade or Kobe , then you're probably burning a bit. But you still got a star in return so honestly, you can probably somewhat live with the outcome.
If you have a chance to trade it for Butler / George and don't, then Fultz ends up the next Russell or worse, then you'll probably be kicking yourself forever.