Author Topic: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?  (Read 9420 times)

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Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2017, 03:40:09 PM »

Online BitterJim

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Fords tiers just came out.

Fultz was unanimous tier 1.

Ball was majority tier 1.

Pretty sure that places them in the top 10 prospects since 2009

The full list:

Davis, Towns, Wall, Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Simmons, Griffin, Fultz, Ball

I thought ford got fired cause his tiers were so bad

What do you mean?  I just looked and all of his past mock drafts have been perfect! That man is a prophet
I'm bitter.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2017, 03:47:59 PM »

Offline Future Celtics Owner

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3 things that are in our favor:
1.  Russel could not have produced those stats if he traded places with Fultz. Fultz had teams completely focused on him and he was forced to have a perfect offensive possession every time down the court. He had non shooting big's that got in his way offensively(clogged up the paint) and he still crafted his way to the rim.

2. There is a lot of talk from the LAL camp that they are angry with Russel's lack of training and complacency...think James Young.  Many people believe he acts as if he is already a star.

3. Fultz is a true TRIPLE THREAT

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2017, 04:21:58 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz.  Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2017, 04:34:40 PM »

Offline feckless

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What if he's the next James Harden?

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Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2017, 05:03:09 PM »

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Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz.  Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.

There's risk in every strategy.  Free agency isn't safe.  Trading isn't safe.  Using the pick ourselves isn't the only risky option.

You measure the risk/reward in every potential path and take the one that makes the most sense.  Drafting Fultz is certainly a defensible move, and you don't need a fever to prefer it over trading the pick.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2017, 05:22:42 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz.  Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.

There's risk in every strategy.  Free agency isn't safe.  Trading isn't safe.  Using the pick ourselves isn't the only risky option.

You measure the risk/reward in every potential path and take the one that makes the most sense.  Drafting Fultz is certainly a defensible move, and you don't need a fever to prefer it over trading the pick.

Exactly.  I'm not advocating trading the pick (although I would for the right return), just pointing out that there is real risk involved in either strategy.  I do think many here underestimate the risk in picks, and hence overvalue them.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2017, 05:35:25 PM »

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Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz.  Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.

There's risk in every strategy.  Free agency isn't safe.  Trading isn't safe.  Using the pick ourselves isn't the only risky option.

You measure the risk/reward in every potential path and take the one that makes the most sense.  Drafting Fultz is certainly a defensible move, and you don't need a fever to prefer it over trading the pick.

Exactly.  I'm not advocating trading the pick (although I would for the right return), just pointing out that there is real risk involved in either strategy.  I do think many here underestimate the risk in picks, and hence overvalue them.

Fair.  I agree with you.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2017, 05:38:08 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
What if Danny isn't committing because he knows Fultz's ceiling is not as high as advertised?  What if the best move is to trade the pick to someone who is high on Fultz?  I've been in the "draft Fultz" camp this whole way, but now I'm not so sure.

I feel the same way.   I think Ainge is not as committed as many here.

Quote
“I do think that there is. In every draft, there’s a handful of guys we dont anticipate that are. It’s hard to look at guys when they’re 19 and see that. My 30 years in — my 40 years in the NBA — there’s been a handful of guys that you can identify so easily. Even Patrick Ewing people weren’t saying he was transcendent when he was 19. By the time he was 22 in college he was, and same with Tim Duncan. It’s hard to identify those guys at 19.

But I would say yeah, there’s going to be a guy that’s going to have multiple All-Star appearances for sure.

Quote
“Every draft is different,” said Ainge. “I think that sometimes you have the top one is better than other drafts…This one is a little bit more equal in the top few picks of the draft as it appears right now. This is something that we’re spending all our time (on). We have people all over the world evaluating this as we speak. So I think that at this point in time, I think that, yeah, there’s four or five guys. There’s not a lot of separation at the top of this draft.”

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2017/06/01/everything-danny-ainge-has-said-about-the-upcoming-nba-draft



Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2017, 05:43:48 PM »

Offline jyyzzoel

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He won't be. Fultz is more athletic, stronger, and what really sets them apart is Fultz's ability to penetrate and absorb contact. Russell, if you watch him, he mostly takes outside or midrange shots, doesn't penetrate too often because he's not quick enough, and when he does he doesn't absorb contact nearly as well as Fultz.

A few weeks ago I was worried about the comparison then I watched a tonne of Russell. Fultz will be a much better player.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #24 on: June 14, 2017, 05:55:00 PM »

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Ive considered it myself,  but I think it's unlikely - Russel never put up those kinds of dominant all around numbers in college (23/6/6) and I dont then anybody ever saw much defensive upside in him - plus different attitudes,  with Fultz being very much a pro's pro.

I do see Russell as the floor for Fulrz, and to be honest I'm ok with that.   Russell is a very talented player and is already putting up very impressive numbers in this league,  and it wouldn't hurt us to have a D'Angelo Russell calibre scorer giving us an offensive boost off the bench as our 6th man.   It's not optimal from your #1 pick,  but id that's the absolute worst case for Fultz (which I believe it is)  then I can certainly livev with that.  Russell still has a lot of upside and could still become an all star 2-3 years from now if he can get his head in the right place.

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #25 on: June 14, 2017, 06:18:57 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz.  Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.

There's risk in every strategy.  Free agency isn't safe.  Trading isn't safe.  Using the pick ourselves isn't the only risky option.

You measure the risk/reward in every potential path and take the one that makes the most sense.  Drafting Fultz is certainly a defensible move, and you don't need a fever to prefer it over trading the pick.

Exactly.  I'm not advocating trading the pick (although I would for the right return), just pointing out that there is real risk involved in either strategy.  I do think many here underestimate the risk in picks, and hence overvalue them.

That's the gamble of the draft.

Even in a draft perceived as deep as this,  with prospects as sure-fire as Fultz, you still just dont know.   

How many people spoke of Wiggins, Ingram and Embiid as the future Lebron / Durant / Hakeem?  Most people considered those guys to be sure-fire future stars,  and so far all have had rocky starts and failed to live up to the hype so far.  Embiid seems the most likely of the three,  but he's equally likely to go the route of Greg Oden and never play a full season.

Even the most certain of prospects can bust out, but an All-Star is (and will remain)  an All-Star unless you get very unlucky and that guys gets hit with a season ending injury. 

Thats the trade off. 

By trading the pick for an established young star you're taking the safe route - you have more certainty now,  at the cost of future upside (since you probably have a good idea how good those guys could get by now) and higher salary requirements.

By keeping the pick you risk selecting a bust,  but your taking that risk on the hope you luck out and up with a franchise player on a cost controlled salary for the next 4-8 years.

Lots of people also make the mistake of believing that a rookie can't contribute to a playoff team for years.   Damian Lillard and Carmelo Anthony put up 20 PPG as rookies,  while many other rookies (like Wade, Wall, Beal, Wiggins, Towns) had very productive rookie seasons.

In fact from memory the Heat won a title in Wade's second or third year, and Wade was clearly the best player on that team - even Shaq officially declared that it was Wade's team.

From menory the Blazers also had a very good year led by Aldridge and a 2nd or 3rd year Lillard.

So as much as we shouldn't expect Fultz to be a difference maker next year,  we shouldn't count it out either. He's got that level of talent.

As for Ainges comments about pack of separation at the top of the draft,  let's not forget that in 2003 Pat Riley had a great deal of difficulty deciding whether to draft Dwyane Wade or Chris Kaman.  He believed Wade had higher upside,  but was concerned by his lack of ball handling skills and jumper.  he felt Kaman was the safer pick and was at a position of need,  so he was very torn.  From memory his gut feeling told him to take Wade, and the rest is history.

Just goes to show how difficult the draft is to predict.

If you trade the lock for Butler/George and Fultz ends up the next Dangelo Russell, then you're happy.  If you make that trade and Fultz ends up the next Lillard, you can live with that.   Butler and George are ultimately just as good,  so all you've lost is a few years of rookie salary.  If you make they trade and Fultz ends up the next Wade or Kobe , then you're probably burning a bit. But you still got a star in return so honestly,  you can probably somewhat live with the outcome.

If you have a chance to trade it for Butler / George and don't,  then Fultz ends up the next Russell or worse, then you'll probably be kicking yourself forever.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2017, 06:29:40 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #26 on: June 14, 2017, 06:28:50 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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What if Danny isn't committing because he knows Fultz's ceiling is not as high as advertised?  What if the best move is to trade the pick to someone who is high on Fultz?  I've been in the "draft Fultz" camp this whole way, but now I'm not so sure.

I'm pretty sure Danny isn't committing because he wants to get interviews and workouts with as many top kids as he can.   If he came out of the Fultz workout jumping up and down and yelling, "WE ARE GOING TO TAKE FULTZ!!!!!" then no agent would bother letting their guy work out for Ainge.

It already is hard enough as at least two (Ball & Jackson) have declined, probably because their agents see the writing on the wall.

Any good GM uses the draft scouting period to try to meet and get to know as much as they can about every possible prospect -- even guys who they have no chance to pick.  They are gathering intel on guys that may pay off later in trades and future free agency.   Once the kids are signed under contract, Danny can't talk to them for years, until they hit free agency again.

So Danny is doing the smart thing by not committing to Fultz until the night of the draft.   He can even hint to agents that he might trade the pick in order to convince kids going much later in the draft to come in for a workout.
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Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #27 on: June 14, 2017, 06:31:54 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Fultz is a lot better at getting to the rim than Russell is/was. I think Russell is a better shooter.

That being said, people are too negative on Russell. His numbers stack up extremely well historically in terms of production at the age of 20.

Yes, getting to / finishing at the rim and overall explosiveness were considered two 'weaknesses' in Russell's pre-draft scouting report.  From DE:
Quote
While Russell is incredibly smooth, his lack of freakish explosiveness in terms of his pure first step and ability to elevate around the basket - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/D-Angelo-Russell-7175/ ©DraftExpress

Both are considered strengths in Fultz' game.
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Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2017, 06:36:39 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Russell is certainly one of the reasonable expected outcomes for Fultz.  Hopefully those with advanced prospect fever can recognize this and see the risk in not trading the pick.

There's risk in every strategy.  Free agency isn't safe.  Trading isn't safe.  Using the pick ourselves isn't the only risky option.

You measure the risk/reward in every potential path and take the one that makes the most sense.  Drafting Fultz is certainly a defensible move, and you don't need a fever to prefer it over trading the pick.

Exactly.  I'm not advocating trading the pick (although I would for the right return), just pointing out that there is real risk involved in either strategy.  I do think many here underestimate the risk in picks, and hence overvalue them.

That's the gamble of the draft.

Even in a draft perceived as deep as this,  with prospects as sure-fire as Fultz, you still just dont know.   

How many people spoke of Wiggins, Ingram and Embiid as the future Lebron / Durant / Hakeem?  Most people considered those guys to be sure-fire future stars,  and so far all have had rocky starts and failed to live up to the hype so far.  Embiid seems the most likely of the three,  but he's equally likely to go the route of Greg Oden and never play a full season.

Even the most certain of prospects can bust out, but an All-Star is (and will remain)  an All-Star unless you get very unlucky and that guys gets hit with a season ending injury. 

Thats the trade off. 

By trading the pick for an established young star you're taking the safe route - you have more certainty now,  at the cost of future upside (since you probably have a good idea how good those guys could get by now) and higher salary requirements.

By keeping the pick you risk selecting a bust,  but your taking that risk on the hope you luck out and up with a franchise player on a cost controlled salary for the next 4-8 years.

Lots of people also make the mistake of believing that a rookie can't contribute to a playoff team for years.   Damian Lillard and Carmelo Anthony put up 20 PPG as rookies,  while many other rookies (like Wade, Wall, Beal, Wiggins, Towns) had very productive rookie seasons.

In fact from memory the Heat won a title in Wade's second or third year, and Wade was clearly the best player on that team - even Shaq officially declared that it was Wade's team.

From menory the Blazers also had a very good year led by Aldridge and a 2nd or 3rd year Lillard.

So as much as we shouldn't expect Fultz to be a difference maker next year,  we shouldn't count it out either. He's got that level of talent.

As for Ainges comments about pack of separation at the top of the draft,  let's not forget that in 2003 Pat Riley had a great deal of difficulty deciding whether to draft Dwyane Wade or Chris Kaman.  He believed Wade had higher upside,  but was concerned by his lack of ball handling skills and jumper.  he felt Kaman was the safer pick and was at a position of need,  so he was very torn.  From memory his gut feeling told him to take Wade, and the rest is history.

Just goes to show how difficult the draft is to predict.

If you trade the lock for Butler/George and Fultz ends up the next Dangelo Russell, then you're happy.  If you make that trade and Fultz ends up the next Lillard, you can live with that.   Butler and George are ultimately just as good,  so all you've lost is a few years of rookie salary.  If you make they trade and Fultz ends up the next Wade or Kobe , then you're probably burning a bit. But you still got a star in return so honestly,  you can probably somewhat live with the outcome.

If you have a chance to trade it for Butler / George and don't,  then Fultz ends up the next Russell or worse, then you'll probably be kicking yourself forever.

Agree with literally everything you said, except Wade and Lillard's defense... They played more than one year in college, so they had developed great habits and offensive skillsets most players like Young, Royce White, etc, fail to do so.

Also people proclaim Fultz doesn't have an expolsive first step... Maybe its just me, but where are people seeing this come from? Fultz has leaping ability, and he uses his great body control to take contact while mid-air and finish.
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Re: What if Markelle Fultz is the next D'Angelo Russell?
« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2017, 06:57:32 PM »

Offline byennie

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Fultz can be found on video dunking from the foul line. If he has Russell's skill plus that kind of athleticism, he's a rich man's Russell and an All-Star IMO.