Author Topic: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward  (Read 5021 times)

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The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« on: June 13, 2017, 09:00:45 AM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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Here are the facts:

- They are WAY over the cap and deep into the luxury tax. This past season their owner had to pay a $54 million luxury tax bill.
- They are not getting any relief next year. Iman Shumpert is on the books for $10.5m per year through the next two seasons. Channing Frye is owed $7.4m next year. JR Smith will get an average of $14.7m over the next three seasons. This is on top of big contracts for James, Irving, and Love, of course.
- A bunch of role players are free agents next year including Kyle Korver and Deron Williiams. They've still got Richard Jefferson signed for two more years on short money, but he's about to turn 37 next week.

My point is this: Their depth was already straight up bad this year. I know they performed well in the playoffs, but keep in mind they only won 51 games this year. It's not like they just coasted through the regular season; Lebron led the league in minutes per game.  They caught fire in the playoffs and will need to rely on that formula -- "flipping the switch" -- again going forward.

There are going to be a lot of stories about how the Cavaliers can boost their talent for next year. Don't buy it. They have no cap space, and even re-signing their own guys (like Korver) via bird rights isn't certain, since it means a bigger tax bill. And trading Kevin Love for someone like Paul George? It's doubtful that Love has that kind of value, plus he was a key part of what they did this past year.

We should expect the Celtics to be on the Cavs' level next year. That's especially the case if they sign a Gordon Hayward or Blake Griffin in the summer. But even if they don't, assuming Isaiah Thomas's hip is ok, just the development of young players coupled with the regression of the Cavs should be enough.

Beyond next year? I'm convinced Lebron won't stay past next year, which is the last year of his existing contract. The land has already been scorched in Cleveland, and Lebron will be entering his mid-30s without a well-rounded team, cap space, or assets to trade.

The Celtics can be major players in the East for years if they play their cards right. There is more reason to be concerned over young, rising teams like Milwaukee and Philadelphia than Cleveland, if you ask me.
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Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2017, 09:15:05 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Cavs best bet is to trade Love and have another team eat smith or shumpert contract

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2017, 09:26:48 AM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Cavs best bet is to trade Love and have another team eat smith or shumpert contract
Trading Love for Cousins or PG seems like the best move.  The problem is they don't have anything to entice a team to eat the smith or Shumpert contract.  The earliest 1st they can trade is 2021 or 2022. 

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2017, 09:27:16 AM »

Offline footey

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Yeah, Cavs definitely will make a major move probably involving Kevin Love. George seems like the obvious target for them but don't think Indy wants him in a rebuild. Maybe 3 way trade.

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2017, 09:33:22 AM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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There are some problems with the idea of trading Kevin Love.

First, Kevin Love had a great year in 2016-17. He was an animal in the playoffs, the last game notwithstanding. His defense improved. If you trade him, you're giving up a key part of what you do.

Second, the teams that would trade for Kevin Love would be contenders, not teams like the Pacers. What would the Pacers do with him? Do you want Myles Turner and Kevin Love in the same frontcourt getting killed in pick and rolls? Then, Love is a free agent in two years.

Third, you can't add any sweeteners to the deal because you have no sweeteners. The Cavs can't trade their first round pick until 2020, if I'm not mistaken. You have to give value to get value, and I'm not just not sure you're going to get more than you're losing by trading away Love.
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Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2017, 09:38:19 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Love may be the most likely to be used in a trade for more talent but he's not going to bring back anyone better since Cleveland doesn't have the assets to make up for the difference in trade value.  trading quality for quantity doesn't seem to be in Cleveland's best interest because you still need the best 5 players you can put on the court.

also wouldn't mind seeing Cleveland suffer a bit next year financially due to luxury tax and not able to add much to their bench but provided they run back mostly the same roster they're still the team to beat in the East.

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2017, 09:52:18 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Cavs best bet is to trade Love and have another team eat smith or shumpert contract
Trading Love for Cousins or PG seems like the best move.  The problem is they don't have anything to entice a team to eat the smith or Shumpert contract.  The earliest 1st they can trade is 2021 or 2022.
I mentioned this quite a few times, but Love for George and then they trade Thompson and Smith together for say something like Mozgov and Deng (they would also include Frye in that trade).  Or Noah and O'Quinn.  Or Zeller, Belinelli, and filler.  Or Dieng and Rubio (if Minny really wants to move Rubio and feels Thompson is a better fit next to Towns).  I'm sure there are other trades that could work, but those would cut salary and not diminish the product that much. 
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Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2017, 09:55:31 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Love may be the most likely to be used in a trade for more talent but he's not going to bring back anyone better since Cleveland doesn't have the assets to make up for the difference in trade value.  trading quality for quantity doesn't seem to be in Cleveland's best interest because you still need the best 5 players you can put on the court.

also wouldn't mind seeing Cleveland suffer a bit next year financially due to luxury tax and not able to add much to their bench but provided they run back mostly the same roster they're still the team to beat in the East.

They need to get younger

Love has also become a one hit wonder. Just waiting for passes to shoot the three... If his shooting is off or well guarded, he is near useless

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2017, 09:59:36 AM »

Offline tonydelk

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There are a few guys the Cavs can move.  Love is attractive at 23m per year over the next 2.  He's a max guy and would make 30+.

Tristan Thompson would be attractive to teams who need toughness and hustle.  He makes 16-18m

Iman Shumpart is a cheap bench option at 11m per year.

IMO in order for the cavs to compete with the warriors they need to get lucky with some guys on vet deals and have to make some trades.  Love for Boogie would be a great deal for both teams.  Moving Shump for a draft pick would help and moving Thompson for some bench pieces would be needed.

The Cavs should resign Bogut.  If he was healthy I think he would have given them 15-20 minutes of needed play out of the C spot.  The Cavs cannot beat GSW as constructed but when you have LBJ and Kyrie you are closer then any other team.  Maybe revisit a trade for Melo.  It would have to be a 3 team trade since NY would probably not want what the Cavs have to offer but  if any of the 3 guys above are in the deal there will be teams interested.

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2017, 10:08:43 AM »

Offline dreamgreen

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Well Love would still look good in Green. We have young pieces and draft picks. Problem is Lebron is still at his best and expects to compete so I don't see how Cleveland gets out of keeping everyone and going to their third straight finals?

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2017, 10:09:05 AM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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Iman Shumpart is a cheap bench option at 11m per year.

IMO in order for the cavs to compete with the warriors they need to get lucky with some guys on vet deals and have to make some trades.  Love for Boogie would be a great deal for both teams.  Moving Shump for a draft pick would help and moving Thompson for some bench pieces would be needed.

The Cavs should resign Bogut.  If he was healthy I think he would have given them 15-20 minutes of needed play out of the C spot.  The Cavs cannot beat GSW as constructed but when you have LBJ and Kyrie you are closer then any other team.  Maybe revisit a trade for Melo.  It would have to be a 3 team trade since NY would probably not want what the Cavs have to offer but  if any of the 3 guys above are in the deal there will be teams interested.

I think you are dramatically exaggerating the attractiveness of the Cavs' assets.

First, Shumpert is not "a cheap bench option at $11m per year". He just averaged 4.4 ppg in this year's playoffs. Last year he averaged 3.3 ppg. He's the definition of a one-dimensional player.

Second, even if the Cavs could land Melo with Love, would it improve their team? You'll have three ball-dominant players on offense (including one that is well past his prime in Melo), none of which is a good team defender. Remember that this team's issue wasn't offense, it was their atrocious defense, that did them in.
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Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2017, 10:15:55 AM »

Offline action781

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Iman Shumpart is a cheap bench option at 11m per year.

IMO in order for the cavs to compete with the warriors they need to get lucky with some guys on vet deals and have to make some trades.  Love for Boogie would be a great deal for both teams.  Moving Shump for a draft pick would help and moving Thompson for some bench pieces would be needed.

The Cavs should resign Bogut.  If he was healthy I think he would have given them 15-20 minutes of needed play out of the C spot.  The Cavs cannot beat GSW as constructed but when you have LBJ and Kyrie you are closer then any other team.  Maybe revisit a trade for Melo.  It would have to be a 3 team trade since NY would probably not want what the Cavs have to offer but  if any of the 3 guys above are in the deal there will be teams interested.

I think you are dramatically exaggerating the attractiveness of the Cavs' assets.

First, Shumpert is not "a cheap bench option at $11m per year". He just averaged 4.4 ppg in this year's playoffs. Last year he averaged 3.3 ppg. He's the definition of a one-dimensional player.

Second, even if the Cavs could land Melo with Love, would it improve their team? You'll have three ball-dominant players on offense (including one that is well past his prime in Melo), none of which is a good team defender. Remember that this team's issue wasn't offense, it was their atrocious defense, that did them in.

Against the smaller athletic lineups that GSW puts on the floor, Carmelo will be a much better defensive PF than Kevin Love.  Also Carmelo's probably a better spot up shooter and for as much deserved flack Carmelo gets for being iso-heavy, he's probably a better off-ball cutter and fast break runner than Love.  I think some kind of 2 team or 3 team deal including Love and Carmelo makes tons of sense.
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Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2017, 10:24:38 AM »

Offline Wretch

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If the Celtics miss out on Hayward. I could get behind a trade for Love. He'd be cheaper, off the books sooner and address 2 needs scoring and rebounding.  I could see some combo of Bradley, Olynyk (sign and trade?) and maybe Crowder. Cavs replace Love's shooting, they get some defensive players to match up with GSW and get some better depth.

For a team like NJ unprotected or lightly protected picks in 3 or 4 year wouldn't be a bad return for taking on salary.

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2017, 10:30:30 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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l can see where Cleveland might have to blow this team up simply because of luxury tax purposes. Last year they paid $54 million in luxury tax and lost $40 million while winning the championship. This year they set a record for most money spent in team salary and probably owe another $30 million in luxury tax and I am not sure if that includes the luxury tax repeater penalty. Who knows how many tens of millions they lost this year?

Though the profit loss numbers probably don't include the increase in what Gilbert could get for the team if he sells, any way you look at things, I am not sure he is going to be willing to spend the money he will have to to keep the Cavs in contender status. I guess he will just one more year but a quick estimate for next year if they sign just a bunch of vet mins and use the MLE is about another $30 to $50 million in luxury tax and a salary over $140 million.

I think Cleveland has one more year to bring it all back, next year, then they have to hope Lebron opts out and goes elsewhere so they can clear the decks and get out of luxury tax hell. Or maybe, just maybe, Gilbert decides he can't add enough talent to beat GSW next year and blows things up this off season. I doubt it but you never know. The object is to make money and win rings and he has done neither this year and may not again next year if he brings everyone back.



« Last Edit: June 13, 2017, 10:35:32 AM by nickagneta »

Re: The Cavaliers could be in deep trouble going forward
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2017, 10:33:52 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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They'll be in even deeper trouble when Lebron leaves town again.


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