Here are the facts:
- They are WAY over the cap and deep into the luxury tax. This past season their owner had to pay a $54 million luxury tax bill.
- They are not getting any relief next year. Iman Shumpert is on the books for $10.5m per year through the next two seasons. Channing Frye is owed $7.4m next year. JR Smith will get an average of $14.7m over the next three seasons. This is on top of big contracts for James, Irving, and Love, of course.
- A bunch of role players are free agents next year including Kyle Korver and Deron Williiams. They've still got Richard Jefferson signed for two more years on short money, but he's about to turn 37 next week.
My point is this: Their depth was already straight up bad this year. I know they performed well in the playoffs, but keep in mind they only won 51 games this year. It's not like they just coasted through the regular season; Lebron led the league in minutes per game. They caught fire in the playoffs and will need to rely on that formula -- "flipping the switch" -- again going forward.
There are going to be a lot of stories about how the Cavaliers can boost their talent for next year. Don't buy it. They have no cap space, and even re-signing their own guys (like Korver) via bird rights isn't certain, since it means a bigger tax bill. And trading Kevin Love for someone like Paul George? It's doubtful that Love has that kind of value, plus he was a key part of what they did this past year.
We should expect the Celtics to be on the Cavs' level next year. That's especially the case if they sign a Gordon Hayward or Blake Griffin in the summer. But even if they don't, assuming Isaiah Thomas's hip is ok, just the development of young players coupled with the regression of the Cavs should be enough.
Beyond next year? I'm convinced Lebron won't stay past next year, which is the last year of his existing contract. The land has already been scorched in Cleveland, and Lebron will be entering his mid-30s without a well-rounded team, cap space, or assets to trade.
The Celtics can be major players in the East for years if they play their cards right. There is more reason to be concerned over young, rising teams like Milwaukee and Philadelphia than Cleveland, if you ask me.