To the people that think players should stay in College...

[hwangjini_1]

What percentage of college players make it to the NBA?

A college education seems a good reason to stay in school for the vast majority of the players.

[wdleehi]

I don't think players should stay in college for the degree.



They should stay in college (or some other sort of developmental league or overseas) to learn how to better play at a higher level.   


Baseball and Hockey do the development themselves the right way.   Football force their players to learn before they have to come to the league.



I want the NBA to force players to more fully develop their game before they get to the league.  I want to see rookies coming in that we have had more time to see as fans and thus, be more hyped about the players.

3 of the 5 greatest players in the 2000's had no college at all i.e. James, Garnett, and Bryant (Duncan and O'Neal are the other 2, just so we are clear).  Nowitzki who isn't far behind those 5, didn't go to college either (though obviously played professionally in Europe).  The 2nd best player in the world right now i.e. Durant, went to college for just 1 year. 

This idea that you need college is just silly.  Last week, Silver was on Cowherd's show and he heavily implied that the NBA will eliminate that rule in some fashion.  He basically said the 6 months of "schooling" doesn't help the players or the schools and that they needed to fix it.  He and the BPA agreed to put that on hold during the last round of negotiations, but Silver expects that they will work on it before the expiration of the current deal and may even make the change prior to the next overall contract. I got the distinct impression, that they will look at a baseball type system (i.e. you don't have to go to college but if you do you have to stay for x years, with x more than 1), though he didn't come out and say it.  This would be coupled with an expanded minor league where the players that aren't ready for the NBA could go. 

EDIT:  Here is a clip of the interview.  they touch on super teams and the one and done here - the full interview is worthwhile, but I can't find it.

https://youtu.be/pVp0W9NfMbQ

Here is an article which has much of above and a little more for those that can't watch youtube

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/7-things-we-learned-from-nba-commissioner-adam-silvers-interview-with-colin-cowherd-053117

And the text for the part on 1 and done

 Colin Cowherd: “The one thing I think is a charade is one-and-done. Many of the most dynamic players in this league -- and most responsible -- did not go to college. Why not expand your D-League, make it the European style? Start at 16 years old. End this charade of college basketball one-and-done?"

Adam Silver: “It may surprise you, but I’m rethinking our position.

"Our historical position since we raised the age from 18 to 19 was that we want to go from 19 to 20, and the union’s position is they want to go from 19 to 18.

"In the last round of collective bargaining, Michelle Roberts and I both agreed ‘Let’s get through these core economic issues in terms of renewing the collective bargaining agreement, and then turn back to this age issue. Because it’s one I think we need to be more thoughtful on, and not just be in an adversarial position, sort of under the bright lights of collective bargaining.

"I’ll take your point one step further. Even the players, the so-called one-and-done players, I don’t think it’s fair to characterize them as going to one year of school.

"What’s happening now, even at the best schools, they enroll at those universities and they attend those universities until either they don’t make the tournament, or to whenever they lose in or win the NCAA tournament. That becomes their last day. So, in essence, it’s a half-and-done. A half a school year, and then they go on.

"For those of [you] who haven’t seen it, take a look at that Ben Simmons documentary that was on Showtime last year. And I don’t blame him, I don’t know him well, but he seems like a bright young man. He has a crew following him around LSU his freshman year — and it’s not LSU’s fault either — he’s essentially saying ‘Why am I here? I don’t even want to be here. I’m forced to be here.’ His team didn’t even make the tournament, and he was still the first pick in the NBA Draft.

"So I do think we have to rethink it at this point, because now selfishly, while I love college basketball and I’m a huge fan of college basketball, I worry about potentially stunted development in the most important years in these players’ careers.

"…. These young men, they’re followed so closely from the time they’re 13 or 14 on. They’re at the major shoe companies’ summer camps. They’re being watched closely by the league, by the college scouts. And so when they get to [college], now they’re in a unique situation. Talk about resting in the NBA, all of a sudden now they realize, even though they can buy insurance,  their biggest concern, unfortunately, becomes not whether they can win the NCAA tournament, but whether they drop in the NBA Draft. So then they have to be worried about how their skills are showcased, how many minutes they get, whether they get injured. It’s not a great dynamic.”

Great players are great players.   Would the NBA have been hurt if they came into the league later? 


Of course not.



Would the league have been helped if they (and the other less talented players) had been forced to further develop their game before coming?

Of course they would. 

[wdleehi]

Oh, and I didn't say "need college".   


I said "They should stay in college (or some other sort of developmental league or overseas) to learn how to better play at a higher level. "


The straight out of high school is like if in baseball, they took someone straight out of single A and never letting them face AAA pitchers. 

[KGs Knee]

Get rid of the farce that is the NBA age limit.  It's disgusting.

Screw college basketball, I don't care if it becomes a less profitable business.  Exploiting these young adults for financial gain should be illegal.

[Moranis]

I don't think players should stay in college for the degree.



They should stay in college (or some other sort of developmental league or overseas) to learn how to better play at a higher level.   


Baseball and Hockey do the development themselves the right way.   Football force their players to learn before they have to come to the league.



I want the NBA to force players to more fully develop their game before they get to the league.  I want to see rookies coming in that we have had more time to see as fans and thus, be more hyped about the players.

3 of the 5 greatest players in the 2000's had no college at all i.e. James, Garnett, and Bryant (Duncan and O'Neal are the other 2, just so we are clear).  Nowitzki who isn't far behind those 5, didn't go to college either (though obviously played professionally in Europe).  The 2nd best player in the world right now i.e. Durant, went to college for just 1 year. 

This idea that you need college is just silly.  Last week, Silver was on Cowherd's show and he heavily implied that the NBA will eliminate that rule in some fashion.  He basically said the 6 months of "schooling" doesn't help the players or the schools and that they needed to fix it.  He and the BPA agreed to put that on hold during the last round of negotiations, but Silver expects that they will work on it before the expiration of the current deal and may even make the change prior to the next overall contract. I got the distinct impression, that they will look at a baseball type system (i.e. you don't have to go to college but if you do you have to stay for x years, with x more than 1), though he didn't come out and say it.  This would be coupled with an expanded minor league where the players that aren't ready for the NBA could go. 

EDIT:  Here is a clip of the interview.  they touch on super teams and the one and done here - the full interview is worthwhile, but I can't find it.

https://youtu.be/pVp0W9NfMbQ

Here is an article which has much of above and a little more for those that can't watch youtube

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/7-things-we-learned-from-nba-commissioner-adam-silvers-interview-with-colin-cowherd-053117

And the text for the part on 1 and done

 Colin Cowherd: “The one thing I think is a charade is one-and-done. Many of the most dynamic players in this league -- and most responsible -- did not go to college. Why not expand your D-League, make it the European style? Start at 16 years old. End this charade of college basketball one-and-done?"

Adam Silver: “It may surprise you, but I’m rethinking our position.

"Our historical position since we raised the age from 18 to 19 was that we want to go from 19 to 20, and the union’s position is they want to go from 19 to 18.

"In the last round of collective bargaining, Michelle Roberts and I both agreed ‘Let’s get through these core economic issues in terms of renewing the collective bargaining agreement, and then turn back to this age issue. Because it’s one I think we need to be more thoughtful on, and not just be in an adversarial position, sort of under the bright lights of collective bargaining.

"I’ll take your point one step further. Even the players, the so-called one-and-done players, I don’t think it’s fair to characterize them as going to one year of school.

"What’s happening now, even at the best schools, they enroll at those universities and they attend those universities until either they don’t make the tournament, or to whenever they lose in or win the NCAA tournament. That becomes their last day. So, in essence, it’s a half-and-done. A half a school year, and then they go on.

"For those of [you] who haven’t seen it, take a look at that Ben Simmons documentary that was on Showtime last year. And I don’t blame him, I don’t know him well, but he seems like a bright young man. He has a crew following him around LSU his freshman year — and it’s not LSU’s fault either — he’s essentially saying ‘Why am I here? I don’t even want to be here. I’m forced to be here.’ His team didn’t even make the tournament, and he was still the first pick in the NBA Draft.

"So I do think we have to rethink it at this point, because now selfishly, while I love college basketball and I’m a huge fan of college basketball, I worry about potentially stunted development in the most important years in these players’ careers.

"…. These young men, they’re followed so closely from the time they’re 13 or 14 on. They’re at the major shoe companies’ summer camps. They’re being watched closely by the league, by the college scouts. And so when they get to [college], now they’re in a unique situation. Talk about resting in the NBA, all of a sudden now they realize, even though they can buy insurance,  their biggest concern, unfortunately, becomes not whether they can win the NCAA tournament, but whether they drop in the NBA Draft. So then they have to be worried about how their skills are showcased, how many minutes they get, whether they get injured. It’s not a great dynamic.”

Great players are great players.   Would the NBA have been hurt if they came into the league later? 


Of course not.



Would the league have been helped if they (and the other less talented players) had been forced to further develop their game before coming?

Of course they would.

But that is the point and that is the point Silver recognizes.  The straight to high school players by and large would have been high draft picks after spending a year in college, so it is just a farce.  You still have the same number of busts from high draft picks with a year of experience as you do with 0 years of college.  I think the amount of busts you get from 2, 3, or 4 year players is pretty much the same as well, obviously accounting for draft position (though there just aren't very many of those guys any more).  The amount of straight from high school to the pros players that completely flamed out of the league (i.e. no 2nd contract) were very small and far more often you ended up with a 10 year player as opposed to an under 4 year player because as Silver says, those players are being scouted from the time they are 13 years old and play in camps all summer long.  The NBA scouts are perfectly capable of recognizing talent from an 18 year old as they are from a 19 year old or a 20 year old.  Talent some times flames out and I'm sure a player or two that would have been drafted after high school ends up not being drafted after college, but those are extremely rare. 

I mean seriously look at the mock drafts a couple of years out and then look at the actual drafts.  Yeah there is some movement here and there, but by and large, the mocks get most of the lottery picks right and they get most of the 1st rounders right.  I mean people have been talking about Fultz and Ball for years, and there are Fultz and Ball sitting right at the top of the draft where they were before either played in college.

[Fan from VT]

Oh, and I didn't say "need college".   


I said "They should stay in college (or some other sort of developmental league or overseas) to learn how to better play at a higher level. "


The straight out of high school is like if in baseball, they took someone straight out of single A and never letting them face AAA pitchers.

Raise the age limit 1 year and make sure NBADL has no salary cap and no draft/rookie scale. If you lived in Maine, wouldn't you buy tickets to see when 18 yo Lebron came to town?

[incoherent]

The NCAA is straight up evil, exploitative, corrupt, and morally absent.

The age limit isn't going up, if anything it's going to go away, and hopefully one day the NCAA system will break and college athletes will actually get paid.

[hwangjini_1]

But that is the point and that is the point Silver recognizes.  The straight to high school players by and large would have been high draft picks after spending a year in college, so it is just a farce.  You still have the same number of busts from high draft picks with a year of experience as you do with 0 years of college.  I think the amount of busts you get from 2, 3, or 4 year players is pretty much the same as well, obviously accounting for draft position (though there just aren't very many of those guys any more).  The amount of straight from high school to the pros players that completely flamed out of the league (i.e. no 2nd contract) were very small and far more often you ended up with a 10 year player as opposed to an under 4 year player because as Silver says, those players are being scouted from the time they are 13 years old and play in camps all summer long.  The NBA scouts are perfectly capable of recognizing talent from an 18 year old as they are from a 19 year old or a 20 year old.  Talent some times flames out and I'm sure a player or two that would have been drafted after high school ends up not being drafted after college, but those are extremely rare. 

I mean seriously look at the mock drafts a couple of years out and then look at the actual drafts.  Yeah there is some movement here and there, but by and large, the mocks get most of the lottery picks right and they get most of the 1st rounders right.  I mean people have been talking about Fultz and Ball for years, and there are Fultz and Ball sitting right at the top of the draft where they were before either played in college.

not to nit pick (well, okay yes to nit pick), but in the bolded above it is not exactly correct. even among the top four picks this year, their standing in the mock drafts has shifted.

Fultz' mock history: started at #4, now at #1.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Markelle-Fultz-90302/mock-draft-history/

Ball's mock history: started at #14, now at #2.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lonzo-Ball-7229/mock-draft-history/

Fox's mock history: started at #14, now at #4.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/De-Aaron-Fox-72510/mock-draft-history/

Tatum's mock history: started at #1, now at #5.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jayson-Tatum-7249/mock-draft-history/

Jackson started at #3 and is there today.

your basic point is that most times most scouts get most of the talent more or less correctly pegged. on that i agree, but there is, to my mind, a sizeable amount of variation over time in rankings.

[Moranis]

But that is the point and that is the point Silver recognizes.  The straight to high school players by and large would have been high draft picks after spending a year in college, so it is just a farce.  You still have the same number of busts from high draft picks with a year of experience as you do with 0 years of college.  I think the amount of busts you get from 2, 3, or 4 year players is pretty much the same as well, obviously accounting for draft position (though there just aren't very many of those guys any more).  The amount of straight from high school to the pros players that completely flamed out of the league (i.e. no 2nd contract) were very small and far more often you ended up with a 10 year player as opposed to an under 4 year player because as Silver says, those players are being scouted from the time they are 13 years old and play in camps all summer long.  The NBA scouts are perfectly capable of recognizing talent from an 18 year old as they are from a 19 year old or a 20 year old.  Talent some times flames out and I'm sure a player or two that would have been drafted after high school ends up not being drafted after college, but those are extremely rare. 

I mean seriously look at the mock drafts a couple of years out and then look at the actual drafts.  Yeah there is some movement here and there, but by and large, the mocks get most of the lottery picks right and they get most of the 1st rounders right.  I mean people have been talking about Fultz and Ball for years, and there are Fultz and Ball sitting right at the top of the draft where they were before either played in college.

not to nit pick (well, okay yes to nit pick), but in the bolded above it is not exactly correct. even among the top four picks this year, their standing in the mock drafts has shifted.

Fultz' mock history: started at #4, now at #1.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Markelle-Fultz-90302/mock-draft-history/

Ball's mock history: started at #14, now at #2.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Lonzo-Ball-7229/mock-draft-history/

Fox's mock history: started at #14, now at #4.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/De-Aaron-Fox-72510/mock-draft-history/

Tatum's mock history: started at #1, now at #5.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jayson-Tatum-7249/mock-draft-history/

Jackson started at #3 and is there today.

your basic point is that most times most scouts get most of the talent more or less correctly pegged. on that i agree, but there is, to my mind, a sizeable amount of variation over time in rankings.

a year ago Tatum was in the top 5, he is in the top 5 today.  Isaac was in the lottery he was in the lottery today.  Markkanen moved from low 20's to top 10.  Monk moved from mid 10's to back end of top 10.  Ntilikina has been in the top 10 every time.  Smith top 10 every time (or just about).  Even Kennard who draftexpress currently has at 11, was 17 a year ago (he is a Soph).  Mitchell has climbed from end of the 1st round to back of the lottery (again a Soph).  Zach Collins they had in the 2018 mock as just out of the lottery (clearly didn't expect him to enter the 2017 draft, but clearly shows they recognized his skill), they have him at the back end of the lottery today.  John Collins (another Soph) has moved up quite a bit and has been the only player not recognized by draftexpress as a 1st round pick.  Anunoby (another Soph) moved up slightly.  Justin Jackson, our first junior, was projected as a mid 1st rounder in the 2016 draft before he came back to school.  He has moved up a bit.  Of course a player like Jackson never would have entered the draft out of high school.  Anigbogu was a late lottery pick in the 2018 mock a year ago.  Since they projected him into 2017 he has been right around where he is.

I could keep going, but the point is made.  Draft sites (who aren't even team scouts), can generally get it right so clearly the teams could.  Sure a player might be a late bloomer or a player might get exposed with tougher competition, but those players are rare.  And the reality is there aren't that many players for which this would even be an issue, as only a handful in any given year would declare.  Even at the heyday i.e. 2005 (the last year), 9 straight from high school players were drafted and only 3 went in the 1st round (Martell Webster, Andrew Bynum, and Gerald Green).  The 2nd rounders however have mostly had great success as they are CJ Miles, Ricky Sanchez, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Andray Blatche, and Amir Johnson.  Sanchez is the only guy to never play in the league, other than him Bynum has the least experience and that is a result of injuries (he still played 418 regular season games and 74 playoff games).