I'd be a little upset if we didn't draft Kyrie Irving, but trust Ainge in his decision to draft Derrick Williams.
I'd be a little upset if we didn't draft John Wall, but trust Ainge in his decision to draft Evan Turner.
I'd be a little upset if we didn't draft Karl-Anthony Towns, but trust Ainge in his decision to draft Russell/Okafor.
Seriously - Fultz is without a doubt the #1 draft prospect. I don't care what Ainge sees in a single draft workout. Passing up on the best prospect at the #1 spot is a lot different than taking Brown at #3 which is actually within range of where he was supposed to go.
Danny needs to make a trade with Philly if he wants Jackson/Tatum. It will be so much more beneficial. The Webber/Hardaway trade is a perfect example of what to do if you want a different player than who is the consensus #1.
More like Paul George over Wall or Kawhi Leonard over Irving. I'd take either of those two outcomes, and I'd take Jackson over Fultz.
If Ainge took a prospect ranked #10 (George) or #15 (Kawhi) at #1, I would love to see how this board would react. It's fun to cherry pick the best players taken later in their respective drafts, but this is a [mostly] consensus #1 we're talking about. You either take Fultz (preferred) or trade back to a position where you know you will get 'your' guy.
Well maybe he is trading with Philly ? Maybe he's drafting Fultz then trading back in at 3 for Tatum.
I wouldn't be ecstatic with trading back, but Philly would be a perfect team to make a trade with. You definitely get Jackson or Tatum (if that's Ainge's preference), plus a whole lot more.
All I am trying to say is simply taking Tatum at #1 would be pretty disastrous.
"Consensus number one" is a meaningless designation in most drafts that don't feature Lebron James. If Danny Ainge thinks Jayson Tatum or Josh Jackson will have the best career and takes either at number one, I'd be fully on board.
Personally--based on my completely amateur, recreational scouting--I'm not that sold on Markelle Fultz as an NBA star.
FWIW, a list of #1 picks post-LeBron and who is (arguably) the best player from the class
2004: Dwight (consensus pick); Dwight
2005: Bogut (was kinda a pickum draft tbh); CP3
2006: Bargnani (eh, I don't really remember this draft); Alridge? Milsapp? kinda lackluster draft
2007: Oden (it was a two man draft, and I don't recall one being that much favored over the other); Durant
2008: Rose (consensus pick); Westbrook
2009: Griffin (consensus pick); Curry
2010: Wall (consensus pick); could be Wall or could be PG13 or Boogie
2011: Kyrie (consensus pick); Kawhi
2012: Davis (consensus pick); Davis
2013: Bennett (lolwut?); Giannis
2014: Wiggins (this one is tricky, I think Embiid would have been consensus pick if he didn't get hurt and/or the LeBron factor wasn't present); too early to tell
2015: KAT (consensus pick); kinda early but probably KAT
2016: Simmons (consensus pick); who tf knows?
So of 7 guys considered consensus picks (not counting Simmons), we have 2 definites, another 2 that could very well be the best, and a guy who ended up being the 2nd best to a guy who came out of (relatively) nowhere. Rose and Griffin are the other 2, and Rose was easily the best until he got injured while the Griffin draft ended up being low-key loaded.
Sometimes the dice don't fall your way, but it's best to pick the consensus guy than to get cute and pick the gamble instead. Because at the end of the day, I don't think Cleveland is exactly kicking itself over picking Irving over Kawhi, or the Wizards Wall over George