Author Topic: Carmello  (Read 5669 times)

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Carmello
« on: May 28, 2017, 09:56:21 AM »

Offline Smitty77

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Why would we want a guy whose PER has consistently gone DOWN the last five years in Boston being paid 26.2 and 27.9 the next two years??

Here are his PER's the last five years:

2016-2017:  18.00
2015-2016:  20.09
2014-2015:  21.60
2013-2014:  24.50
2012-2013:  24.80.

Does anyone notice a PATTERN here?

And then we have quite a few on this board talking about Carmello playing PF!!  If you think we have rebounding issues, let's plug in a starting PF that averaged 5.9 rebounds last year and that is a 6.6 per game rebounder for his career?????

Please keep in mind that 6' 2" Avery Bradley averaged 6.1 rebounds in the regular season this year!!

Everyone is SO worried about Blake's injury issues, but some of those same individuals seemingly are NOT worried about Carmello's knee!!!!

Smitty77

Re: Carmello
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2017, 11:31:50 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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1.  Production
You are complaining about paying $26M / $28M to a guy who had a per of 22 / 20 / 18 over the past three years?

Al Horford, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder had PERs of 17.7, 14.4 and 14.9 (respectively) for us this season - and they were the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players on a #1 seed.   

Like Melo, Horford's PER has been consistently dropping over the recent years:

19.8
22.0
21.7
19.4
17.7

Yet Danny Ainge was happy to gave him a 4 year max contract.

Do you know that Paul Georges career average PER is 18.5?  The higher Per number of his career was 20.9 in 2015/16.

Gordon Hayward's career per is 17.7, which is about the same number as what Melo put up on this one bad year. 

So I'd just like to take this opportunity to clarify - a per of 17.9 is actually not a bad number, and putting up a PER like that on an utterly garbage Knicks team is really quite reasonable.  I will entirely expect his PER to drop last season since he was sharing the ball with a horrible (yet extremely ball dominant) Derek Rose it's only natural his production was going to go down. 

 
2. Rebounding
Carmelo Anthony played Small Forward this year, and has done so throughout much of his career.  How many small forwards do you know who averaged more then 6.6 RPG for their careers?   However you might like to know that in 2013/14 (the last season in which he played PF) he averaged a career high 8.1 rebounds per game.

May I please also note that Blake Griffin, has averaged 7.9 rebounds per game over his past three seasons, and has averaged over 9 RPG only 3 times in his 7 year career?  But you think HE is going to help our rebounding, do you?


3. Injuries
Because over the past two seasons Blake Griffin has missed 41% of his possible regular season games and 46% of his possible playoff games.  That in addition to the fact that he was idiotic enough to miss important playoff games one year due to a swollen hand that he got as a result of an ill advised fist fight.  Guys who are going to be stupid enough to get into fist fights while their team is in the playoffs - yeah, that's what you want.   

Comparatively, Melo has only missed 11% of his possible games over the past two seasons.  I would rate that as just a wee bit less concerning. 

Re: Carmello
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2017, 01:24:49 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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1.  Production
You are complaining about paying $26M / $28M to a guy who had a per of 22 / 20 / 18 over the past three years?

Al Horford, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder had PERs of 17.7, 14.4 and 14.9 (respectively) for us this season - and they were the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best players on a #1 seed.   

Like Melo, Horford's PER has been consistently dropping over the recent years:

19.8
22.0
21.7
19.4
17.7

Yet Danny Ainge was happy to gave him a 4 year max contract.

Do you know that Paul Georges career average PER is 18.5?  The higher Per number of his career was 20.9 in 2015/16.

Gordon Hayward's career per is 17.7, which is about the same number as what Melo put up on this one bad year. 

So I'd just like to take this opportunity to clarify - a per of 17.9 is actually not a bad number, and putting up a PER like that on an utterly garbage Knicks team is really quite reasonable.  I will entirely expect his PER to drop last season since he was sharing the ball with a horrible (yet extremely ball dominant) Derek Rose it's only natural his production was going to go down. 

 
2. Rebounding
Carmelo Anthony played Small Forward this year, and has done so throughout much of his career.  How many small forwards do you know who averaged more then 6.6 RPG for their careers?   However you might like to know that in 2013/14 (the last season in which he played PF) he averaged a career high 8.1 rebounds per game.

May I please also note that Blake Griffin, has averaged 7.9 rebounds per game over his past three seasons, and has averaged over 9 RPG only 3 times in his 7 year career?  But you think HE is going to help our rebounding, do you?


3. Injuries
Because over the past two seasons Blake Griffin has missed 41% of his possible regular season games and 46% of his possible playoff games.  That in addition to the fact that he was idiotic enough to miss important playoff games one year due to a swollen hand that he got as a result of an ill advised fist fight.  Guys who are going to be stupid enough to get into fist fights while their team is in the playoffs - yeah, that's what you want.   

Comparatively, Melo has only missed 11% of his possible games over the past two seasons.  I would rate that as just a wee bit less concerning.

First, Griffin plays beside one of the best rebounders in the league in DJ!! Second Horford was HUGE in the playoffs!!!! And Melo is a horrendous defender!!!

Re: Carmello
« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2017, 08:21:01 PM »

Offline timpiker

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Melo's a ballhog who doesn't pass and probably will be done in 3 yrs.

Re: Carmello
« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2017, 08:23:05 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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PER sucks as a stat. You list Horford and George who are two guys whose impact is not even close to represented by PER.
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Re: Carmello
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2017, 09:29:53 PM »

Offline Granath

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I agree with the OP.

Look, Melo has been a superstar in this league albeit he's never won anything. There's no taking that away. It's not like the guy sucks or anything and I'm not one who is going to crap all over him. But I can easily explain why Danny won't touch him with a 10 foot pole.

Melo's game is all offense and always has been. So any drop on that end is compounded by the fact that he's always been a defensive liability. It's really no different than IT currently - once Isaiah can't put the ball in the hoop at a rate that makes up for his dreadful defense there's no reason to keep him on the court. But he just turned 33 and SFs that age with declining athletic skills tend to fall off a cliff. Melo will still be an effective scorer the next couple of years but the rest of his game is starting to take a dive. Let's look closely at these tell-tale markers of a guy who is starting that precipitous drop:

(1) Rebounding. He pulled down 5.9 rebounds per game last year which was a career low. His rebounding rate and his rebounds per 100 were at lows he hasn't seen since he was 21. This indicates he doesn't have his legs anymore.

(2) TS%. His TS%, while never good, is now around .535. This makes him a volume shooter but not a particularly effective one and under his career average.

(3) Free Throws. He got to the line 5.2 times last year. This represents a massive drop from his career average of 7.2 and in the 8s when he was one of the best scorers in the league. The rate of decline is alarming - 7.4 to 6.5 to 6.0 to 5.7 to 5.2. This means he's not getting to the basket as much either and relying more on his outside shot.

(4) Advanced Stats. His oRtg vs dRtg now suggests he's a net negative on the court (though these statistics are often incorrect). But when you combine that with VORP, BPM, WS/48 and so forth all these measurements add up to one conclusion - he's not all that effective anymore.

(5) Fit. He's simply the wrong guy for this team. His usage rate is still tremendously high and we already have someone the offense runs through. Asking him to be a role player would be a massive change at this point in his career. It's possible but it's a serious risk and at his salary that risk isn't acceptable. Furthermore you can't put him on the court with IT - that would be a defensive disaster of epic proportions. 

(6) Salary. By taking on Melo's salary, Danny is locked into a course of action for two years. There would be no cap flexibility and making deals with other teams would be exceptionally difficult. I don't think anyone thinks a 33 year old Carmelo Anthony gets us over the hump so why make the deal if it's not the way to a Championship or a Dynasty?

Melo is simply too costly, not effective enough and not the right fit for this team.
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Re: Carmello
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2017, 09:41:24 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I'm not really sure what the problem is here except that Carmelo is spelled wrong in the subject line:

If we do not sign Hayward or Griffin, Carmelo as a fall-back option is pretty great. He is only on a two-year contract, he will not cost a lot to obtain, and he gives the Cs a legitimate 2nd option on offense.

I mean, we could sign a guy like Millsap to a 4-year max or trade half of our roster/BKN picks for Butler or George, but trading Carmelo seems to be the safest bet and he fits in well with the timeline of Horford. Hopefully our younger players are ready to step up when his contract is up.

I think it would be interesting to see a rejuvenated Carmelo play for a team that actually has a puncher's chance for a title.

Re: Carmello
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2017, 09:49:01 PM »

Offline bogg

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Is anyone really advocating Carmelo as anything more than a fallback option? The question isn't so much whether Carmelo's a superstar that's going to win Boston a ring as it is whether Boston's better off getting Carmelo for next to nothing or re-upping Amir Johnson on another 1+1 that pays him eight figures annually.

Re: Carmello
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2017, 10:11:10 PM »

Offline csfansince60s

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I'm on the Melo train as plan C/D, but I would embrace him being here.

Plan A- Hayward
Plan B- Millsap
Plan C/D: Griffin/Melo

We could've had Melo at the deadline, and there was support on the Cs coaching staff to acquire him.

I think Danny held off because: 1. He had a strong indication/heads up that Hayward is coming in the summer (so DA wanted to maintain the cap space for the time being and Melo's contract wouldnt've allowed that ) and 2. he figured that if his info was wrong/Hayward had a change of heart, Phil couldn't move Melo, and Melo'd still be there in the summer to grab.

Melo would be cheap to acquire. Phil wants him gone so bad that we could probably get either O'Quinn or Hernangomez as part of the deal.

We could get Melo and one of the two young centers for Zeller, a S&T'd KO (perfect for the triangle) and some draft picks.

IT/Melo/Horford plus the kids>>>competitive bridge to the future.

JB/Fultz/BK'18/Smart/Rozier/Zizic>>>>>our future


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Re: Carmello
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2017, 10:26:44 PM »

Offline celticpride1

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Why would we want a guy whose PER has consistently gone DOWN the last five years in Boston being paid 26.2 and 27.9 the next two years??

Here are his PER's the last five years:

2016-2017:  18.00
2015-2016:  20.09
2014-2015:  21.60
2013-2014:  24.50
2012-2013:  24.80.

Does anyone notice a PATTERN here?

And then we have quite a few on this board talking about Carmello playing PF!!  If you think we have rebounding issues, let's plug in a starting PF that averaged 5.9 rebounds last year and that is a 6.6 per game rebounder for his career?????

Please keep in mind that 6' 2" Avery Bradley averaged 6.1 rebounds in the regular season this year!!

Everyone is SO worried about Blake's injury issues, but some of those same individuals seemingly are NOT worried about Carmello's knee!!!!

Smitty77

Bird and Lebron both over 6.6 off he top of my head and I think pippen did as well.

Re: Carmello
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2017, 10:38:52 PM »

Offline sirnastee

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I'm all for Melo in a backup safety option.  I believe the 2nd year left on his contract is a player option, which he is likely to decline to get one last contract before he retires.  So, it could be a 1 year rental and make the decision after we see how the season goes.  I don't think it will cost much to get him.  Maybe Rozier and Crowder (with a non-BK first round if needed) for Melo and O'quinn, while we eat up the salary difference. 
   
 I think we would still have around 8 million to work with after this deal. O'quinn would help out with rebounding and blocking.  I think Melo would play much better once he gets a change of scenery and comes to a team that emphasizes team and defense.   

Re: Carmello
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2017, 11:19:38 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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On Carmelo I go back to what I saw in the Olympics. I think if you get him on a team where someone else creates for him he can be an unbelievable scorer. We wouldn't want to rely on him to go iso but he if you can get him good shots in the flow of an offense I believe he could make our offense elite.

Melo's value is at a point where we could probably improve our team without costing long term assets. If we can't get our main targets Melo would be a good option to use up our cap space.
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Re: Carmello
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2017, 11:23:51 PM »

Offline bogg

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I'm all for Melo in a backup safety option.  I believe the 2nd year left on his contract is a player option, which he is likely to decline to get one last contract before he retires.  So, it could be a 1 year rental and make the decision after we see how the season goes.  I don't think it will cost much to get him.  Maybe Rozier and Crowder (with a non-BK first round if needed) for Melo and O'quinn, while we eat up the salary difference. 
   
 I think we would still have around 8 million to work with after this deal. O'quinn would help out with rebounding and blocking.  I think Melo would play much better once he gets a change of scenery and comes to a team that emphasizes team and defense.

You don't even have to give up Crowder. Something like Zeller and one of Jonas/Amir(in a S&T)for salary matching plus the Clippers' first and one of Rozier or Boston's own 2018 pick probably gets it done.

Re: Carmello
« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2017, 12:08:04 AM »

Offline footey

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Melo makes sense if we don't get Hayward and price is low. Phil desperate to dump him.

Re: Carmello
« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2017, 12:35:19 AM »

Offline sirnastee

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I'm all for Melo in a backup safety option.  I believe the 2nd year left on his contract is a player option, which he is likely to decline to get one last contract before he retires.  So, it could be a 1 year rental and make the decision after we see how the season goes.  I don't think it will cost much to get him.  Maybe Rozier and Crowder (with a non-BK first round if needed) for Melo and O'quinn, while we eat up the salary difference. 
   
 I think we would still have around 8 million to work with after this deal. O'quinn would help out with rebounding and blocking.  I think Melo would play much better once he gets a change of scenery and comes to a team that emphasizes team and defense.

You don't even have to give up Crowder. Something like Zeller and one of Jonas/Amir(in a S&T)for salary matching plus the Clippers' first and one of Rozier or Boston's own 2018 pick probably gets it done.


To give up non-guaranteed Zeller, I think the trade would have to be done before July as Zeller's contract will become guaranteed end of June, unless Knicks are willing to be in the hook for Zeller next year.  I don't think Danny will prematurely make a trade for Melo before trying to get G Hayward in free agency.