Everyone seems to think Bradley's the odd man out if we keep Fultz here; I have a sneaking suspicion it's actually IT we don't value as much. His game's not likely to age well and he's got a mega-contract coming up next offseason. As much as I like him I think we'll find a way for him to not be here for it.
What evidence do we really have to support the idea that IT won't age well?As of right now he has played 441 career regular season games and 24 career playoff games. He has played a total of 14,056 minutes.
At the start of his next deal, he will be entering his 8th season in the league, a season during which he will turn 30 years old.
Tony Parker, by comparison, was a very good starting point guard through his 13th season. Through his 13th season + playoffs (2014), he had played approximately 38,000 minutes.
Now, Tony Parker is bigger than Isaiah, but not by a lot, and he seems to me to be a pretty good comparison in terms of a guy who relied on speed as a younger guy but who increasingly relied on pull-up jumpers and guile as he got older.
There's reason to believe Isaiah could age even better than Tony Parker, given that he is a significantly better outside shooter, and the spacing around him should only get better as he ages.
Even if Isaiah looks like 31 or 32 year old Tony Parker by the end of his next deal (i.e. 15-17 ppg on decent shooting splits in about 30 mpg), that would be well worth the overpayment if he gives the Celts a couple more seasons in the low to mid 20s or higher in terms of scoring, along with steadily improving decisionmaking and outside shooting.
Bottom line, there are not many examples in the history of the NBA of guys well under 6 feet tall playing at a high level through their 35th birthday. However, there also have been very few players under 6 feet tall who have been able to play at the level Isaiah is at right now.
Furthermore, the game has changed a great deal to where guard who can shoot and run the pick and roll can stay relevant for much longer. With the spacing in today's game and the way the rules are called in favor of ballhandlers, I think we could see many of these star point guards playing into their late 30s.