Was the Lottery Rigged?

[Boris Badenov]

My guess is that it's possible to tilt the odds a bit by tampering with the ping pong balls to make one number come up more often than all the other numbers. If the "1" ball was tampered with, that would substantially weigh things in the worst team's favor.

That said, I don't believe it's rigged, despite the worst team getting the pick three years in a row (1/64 odds), the Cleveland #1s, the Philly/LA/Boston trifecta two years in a row, etc.

This struck me as a funny example of how statistics can be taken different ways. It's true, but it's also true that it was more likely than any other single outcome.

[the TRUTH]

Another thought - if you look back to the 2006-07 season, the fact that the Celtics continued to draw well even during such a miserable season may have sealed Boston's lack of fortune in the lottery. While I love the passion and loyalty of this fan base, the fact that the fans still showed up may have been an indication to the league that it could take the Celtics for granted and prop up some other organizations in the lottery instead. All's well that ends well, as we still won #17, but landing Durant would've been nice.

[RockinRyA]

As someone from Blazers Edge said.. If it was rigged there's no way the Blazers would get 1st pick over the Celtics in 2007

Remember Ryan Gomes, the tank commander?

"I probably (would have played), but since we were in the hunt for a high draft pick, of course things are different. I understand that. Hopefully things get better. Now that we clinched at least having the second-most balls in the lottery, the last three games we'll see what happens. We'll see if we can go out and finish some games."

This was the first public comment by a Celtic in 2007 implying that the team was losing games purposely, to improve their status for the draft. As a matter of fact, many teams had tanked hard that year hoping to land either Oden or Durant. It's only logical to assume that Stern wasn't particularly happy with the whole situation. What happened was that the teams with the 3 worst records obtained the fourth, fifth and sixth pick respectively. These were the lowest possible picks they could have obtained through the lottery.

This is called confirmation bias.

In a lottery, anything can happen. Even the most unlikely outcome you can think of might happen. Its when it happens that people think  it is rigged, but in reality it is not.

[Androslav]

47% = 100%
It is never rigged, balls fall in the right place each time.

[RLewis35]

I don't think the lottery has been rigged since Adam silver took over. Before that? All the time.

[Jvalin]

As someone from Blazers Edge said.. If it was rigged there's no way the Blazers would get 1st pick over the Celtics in 2007

Remember Ryan Gomes, the tank commander?

"I probably (would have played), but since we were in the hunt for a high draft pick, of course things are different. I understand that. Hopefully things get better. Now that we clinched at least having the second-most balls in the lottery, the last three games we'll see what happens. We'll see if we can go out and finish some games."

This was the first public comment by a Celtic in 2007 implying that the team was losing games purposely, to improve their status for the draft. As a matter of fact, many teams had tanked hard that year hoping to land either Oden or Durant. It's only logical to assume that Stern wasn't particularly happy with the whole situation. What happened was that the teams with the 3 worst records obtained the fourth, fifth and sixth pick respectively. These were the lowest possible picks they could have obtained through the lottery.

This is called confirmation bias.

In a lottery, anything can happen. Even the most unlikely outcome you can think of might happen. Its when it happens that people think  it is rigged, but in reality it is not.

You wrote ''If it was rigged there's no way the Blazers would get 1st pick over the Celtics in 2007''.

I guess there is a way after all. If you choose to believe it or not, that's a whole other issue. At the end of the day, no matter what happens people are gonna believe what they want to believe.

[Donoghus]

No...no...no.

Too many hands involved to make it a viable conspiracy.  And I've mentioned it before, but do you really think a global accounting firm like E&Y would risk their professional reputation by rigging a professional sports lottery of all things?

[kozlodoev]

Until they do the process in the open it will always have allegations surrounding it.   There is no reason to do it behind closed doors.

Because it's takes forever and isn't appealing to the mass audience. They usually release it later on in it's entirety.

By ''forever'' you mean 15 minutes?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB2GNcAG6i4

That's 15 minutes with all the boring explanatory speeches involved. If they started the live coverage right after the speeches part ended, it would be far less than that.

This year they had to redraw 2 times and the actual lottery part was about 9 minutes long.

The main problem is that you can't do a reverse reveal if you broadcast the entire thing. So it's bad live television.

Given that there are team reps, league reps, and certified auditors in the room, and a full recording is later released, there are no transparency issues and the chance for foul play is about zero. You're not going to convince the doubters either way.

[OldSchoolDude]

I don't think the lottery has been rigged since Adam silver took over. Before that? All the time.

I agree.
Back in 84 the envelope was frozen!