Author Topic: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)  (Read 7445 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« on: April 25, 2017, 12:12:23 PM »

Offline Fireworks_Boom!

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 502
  • Tommy Points: 57
Build vs. Buy vs. Both?
Draft vs. Free-agency vs. Both?


I believe this team's window is to stack NOW to make a run for 3-4 years of high level competition at a championship level. Why?

Al Horford: 31 years old
Isaiah Thomas: young but impending Max FA (2018)
Avery Bradley: impending FA (2018)

Shouldn't the debate be Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn 2017 pick as part of a package?

I would argue we need to make a trade in order to accelerate this objective. Drafting another 20 year old puts us on a path to seriously compete in 3-4 years after developing at the NBA level and building rapport with roster. Target: Paul George

Which do we value more (Brooklyn 2017 or Jaylen Brown)? Which does the league value more?

My guess is the league values the Brooklyn pick more not only because it could be #1 but also because the unknown is the intrigue. And for all the regular season promise Jaylen Brown showed, he has disappeared in this his first playoffs (which is not uncommon or unexpected given he is a 20 year old rookie and CBS is shortening the bench in a tough round 1 matchup).

But the second discussion should be how do we improve the current roster avoiding redundancy. Brown is redundant to George (sure we could play Brown at the wing but we have a plethora of wings in Avery Bradley/Marcus Smart/Terry Rozier).

Path 1 vs. Path 2: Sure there are other paths but these are the 2 I would advocate

Path 1
Keep team as is and sign Gordon Hayward.

PG: Thomas
SG: Bradley
SF: Hayward
PF: Crowder
C: Horford

Bench: Smart, Brown, Rozier, Yabusele, Nader, Zizic, etc. (this would require us renouncing Jerebko, Johnson, Olynyk: please, fingers/toes crossed: can't stand him as a player).

Path 2
Trade Jaylen Brown/Jae Crowder/Avery Bradley for Paul George (conditional upon resigning).
Renounce all impending FA and options (Olynyk, Zeller, Johnson, Jerebko, Green, etc.)
Draft Markelle Fultz
Sign Gordon Hayward

PG: Thomas
SG: Smart
SF: Hayward
PF: George
C: Horford

Bench: Fultz, Rozier, Yabusele, Zizic, Nader, MLE, LLE

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2017, 12:34:23 PM »

Offline jakeopp

  • Joe Mazzulla
  • Posts: 138
  • Tommy Points: 12
Pacers aren't giving away PG13 for Jaylen Brown. An offer for him starts with the 2017 pick, & they'll want more than just the pick.

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2017, 12:40:29 PM »

Offline Granath

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2154
  • Tommy Points: 567
I love Jaylen Brown (look at my sig - it was changed on draft night) but you have to give the nod to the 2017 Brooklyn pick. The Cs are guaranteed a top 4 pick in this draft and all 4 are more highly rated than Brown coming out of college. Thus the 2017 pick is more valuable.

As for build or buy, I don't think we've crossed that bridge. In fact, I don't think we're going to need to cross it to a large extent. Why? Look at what you said, Horford is 31. IT wants to back the Brinks truck up in 2018. Bradley is an impending FA in 2018.

We're not going to keep these guys forever. But we don't need to. Boston can be a good FA destination for players who want to win now. Then we're backfilling with Brown, Smart, Zizic, Yabu, 2017 Nets top 4, 2018 Nets (realistically top 6), Memphis 2019, etc. The pipeline of talent keeps coming. So as one drops off, another one steps up.

So take your path #1 as an example and lets' assume Fultz is the pick just for giggles. It doesn't require the Cs to commit to either direction but allows them to continue to explore both. After 2018 season, Bradley is probably gone. But for that 2017-2018 season the Cs field a team that is - on paper - one of the best in the league and could win a title.

After 2018, the Cs pay up on IT unless Fultz shows he can excel. We'd have two more years on Brown before he'd be a RFA, 3 years on Yabu, Fultz pick and Zizic. Those guys start to come up as Horford drops off. Fultz and the 2018 pick come up for contracts as IT or Hayward starts to drop off. Older guys and guys out of contract are continually replaced by the younger guys.

As for redundancy, I think we've seen that Stevens can fit guys into the system outside of the traditionally defined roles. Of that I'm not really concerned. The NBA game has changed enough that non traditional systems can win. Case in point is Golden State - their top 6 guys in minutes played this year is a PG/SG combo, a SG, 3 SFs and a PF (Curry, Klay, Durant, Iguodola, Barnes and Green). In short, I'm not as concerned about redundancy. We've got the right coach for that.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2017, 12:46:00 PM »

Offline Eja117

  • NCE
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19274
  • Tommy Points: 1254
 I lean far more towards drafting for a ring. I think aiming at 34 year old Lebron (and whatever Durant will be) makes way more sense than aiming at 31 year old Lebron and the Warriors as constituted.

If we can do both and get a great free agent now that's great. But I want to keep flexibility. I don't think I want to sign max money max years deal. I like that Horford's contract comes off the books right around when they need to sign Jaylen and this year's pick

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2017, 12:50:28 PM »

Offline slamtheking

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31869
  • Tommy Points: 10047
I don't agree with the premise that they have to go all in right now.  that would be your path 2 -- at least based on the team you've built.

Path 1: possible options
1A. Sign one of Hayward/Griffin/Noel.  Hayward and Griffin would command more money as 'max' deals than Noel would command as a 'max' player (I think that's the case but someone can correct me on that).  each would address a need and improve the team.  Hayward also makes Crowder expendable as trade bait for a big man.
1B. Failing to sign a major FA, sign 2-3 solid FAs to fill out the roster with vets that are better than the players we already have.  I would renounce JJ, Amir, Green, Zeller and possibly KO depending on the cap space needed to get those FAs and who they would project to replace on the roster.  I would not want to go into next season with all of those guys back on the roster while only adding Yabu and Zizic to the bench with the Nets pick. 
The Nets pick, if Fultz, can gain experience behind AB and work with Smart off the bench as a shooter that we need in the backcourt who can also help run the offense. 
If the pick is Tatum or Jackson, they offer another backup behind Crowder and Brown.  Brown will hopefully improve over the summer where we can live without Green and Jerebko. 
I don't see the pick being Ball at this point unless both we and Ball slide to #4. 

Path 2:
It's a big IF to get PG to resign.  Very Big.  you're also banking on signing Hayward which would not be a given since both of them play SF.  A frontcourt of PG and Al would be swell on offense  but get killed on the boards even more than we already do.  if they play a team of any reasonable size we're screwed.
This path would address any scoring needs we have on the wing however it leaves us thinner on the bench in terms of experienced quality vets.  As listed, you've got all rookies except Rozier and a mystery player for the MLE and LLE (assuming those are even available to use --> not sure we can exceed the cap if signing Hayward --> he has to be signed with open cap space and if signed, I don't believe you get those exceptions.  there's some other exception I believe is available  but not 2 of them.  You're claiming to advocate for this approach thinking we're a contender but that frontcourt and bench will not get you a title.  may not even get to the ECF with it's lack of balance-->not enough height or proven depth.

while the thought process is to push all in while Horford still has gas in the tank is understandable, I'd rather build this team to take a 7-10 year run at contention with a solid nucleus than a short 2-3 year window and no-to-few trade assets left to improve the team.

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2017, 12:57:06 PM »

Offline Darío SpanishFan

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 981
  • Tommy Points: 141
I believe this team's window is to stack NOW to make a run for 3-4 years of high level competition at a championship level. Why?

Al Horford: 31 years old
Isaiah Thomas: young but impending Max FA (2018)
Avery Bradley: impending FA (2018)

I'll fix this.

GSW: 67 wins after 73 wins after67 wins.
Cleveland: LeBron, still in his prime, Irving and Love.

Still interested in winning NOW sacrificing future options?

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #6 on: April 25, 2017, 01:12:26 PM »

Offline positivitize

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2565
  • Tommy Points: 614
  • Puns of steel
Don't trade for PG.
My biases, in order of fervor:
Pro:
Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Kemba, Grant Williams, Sleepy Williams, Edwards!

Anti:
Kanter, Semi, Theis, Poierier

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #7 on: April 25, 2017, 01:22:37 PM »

Offline CoachBo

  • NCE
  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6069
  • Tommy Points: 336
Nothing makes me laugh quite like the idea that Danny Ainge can draft a champion.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #8 on: April 25, 2017, 01:39:15 PM »

Offline Fireworks_Boom!

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 502
  • Tommy Points: 57
Nothing makes me laugh quite like the idea that Danny Ainge can draft a champion.

Agreed. He doesn't exactly have the best draft record. If the pick is #1 then you keep and take Fultz who appears to be the surest of anyone in this draft. If it isn't #1 maybe we trade down to where we can still land a shooter like Malik Monk (currently projected #8).

Perhaps Sacramento would consider a package of WCS + Pick 8 for Pick 2-4? I might consider this IF Monk is guaranteed to us.

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #9 on: April 25, 2017, 02:50:09 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48120
  • Tommy Points: 8794
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
If keeping Brown is redundant given he plays the same position as Butler or George, well isn't keeping the Brooklyn pick where the top 4 players are PGs and wings also redundant?

« Last Edit: April 25, 2017, 03:40:13 PM by nickagneta »

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #10 on: April 25, 2017, 03:35:02 PM »

Offline mahcussmaht

  • Payton Pritchard
  • Posts: 118
  • Tommy Points: 6
Jaylen Brown isn't good.  The Brooklyn pick is 10x more valuable.

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2017, 03:42:45 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48120
  • Tommy Points: 8794
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
Jaylen Brown isn't good.  The Brooklyn pick is 10x more valuable.
Not sure which Jaylen Brown you have been watching but he is loaded with talent and upside. I am not sure that Jackson and Tatum are going to be all that much better, if better at all, than Brown in 4-5 years when they are established pros.

Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2017, 03:43:20 PM »

Offline D Dub

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3123
  • Tommy Points: 251
I think you keep Jaylen.

That pick is going to be uber-valuable and maybe even enough to land us a whale in the trade market --- that's why you deal it. 

17' pick
Jae
Amir

i mean, is that enough to land Paul George?  if so i think you HAVE to do it.

the problem with drafting another 1/2 with this pick is that we've already a great rotation that features an all-nba level 1/2.

I'd keep the Smart/Thomas thing together.  Smart is the perfect compliment for IT, especially now that he's grown into such a competent ball handler -- IT can run off screens and generally be used in more versatile ways to score.  That's not even getting into the defensive side of the ball.

And we've heard what Horford thinks of Terry.  The kid does have game.  As does Jaylen.  And our current starting 2 (AB) ain't too shabby either.

So...our team is kind of set in the back court, in my view, for present and future. 

We really need is a veteran 3/4 cold-blooded scorer & if this draft picks offers us the chance to trade for a SURE THING like  that (ie George, Butler or Anthony(?)....wait scratch that last part but...) but a player in that mold.  Point is, we are literally that one piece away from giving LBJ fits and being a legit contender.   

With the 18 BKL pick plus the Memphis pick still coming down the road, we could move this pick and the cupboard would still be mostly stocked.  Shaping up to be a good year for Ainge to harvest some of the crops. 



Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2017, 03:45:13 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11225
  • Tommy Points: 860
Nothing makes me laugh quite like the idea that Danny Ainge can draft a champion.

CoachBo.  I agree with you to the extend that drafting is a crap shoot but this applies to Danny or any other GM.  Wouldn't you concede though that we only need to get lucky in the draft once?  If we stay the path and use all the picks, we will have Smart, Brown, maybe Fultz, and a really good 2018 pick.  We just need to have one of these picks exceed expectation and become a star.  I think the odds are good.  No guarantee (look at Philly) but we aren't banking on hitting the jackpot with just one pick, we have 4 cracks at this.

So say we get Fultz and he turns into Westbrook.  Then all we need for Smart, Brown, and 2018 picks is for them to be decent players and we have something we can build on.  Mix in Zizic, Rozier, Yabusele and we have a team we can build on while we continue to be a team that is entertaining and winning games.

I don't see the alternative.  Do we gut our team and trade for Butler or George?  If we do that, we could end up the Knicks.  Do you have an alternate plan?  Yes, it is possible that we swing and miss on all the picks but even if you have no faith in Danny (I think Danny drafts about as well as any GM), you have to remember the adage of the blind squirrel.  With 4 top 6 picks in a row (hopefully), you could pick names out of a hat and probably get one star.


Re: The Debate: Jaylen Brown or Brooklyn Pick (not both)
« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2017, 03:47:17 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

  • NCE
  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3821
  • Tommy Points: 378
Do we really want Paul George here, with his long face, whining about how much he LOVES The Lakers--?
Larry Bird was Greater than you think.