How Good is Our Future, Really?

[celticsclay]

Embiid and Simmons have played how many games out of the games possible?

Embiid 31/164
Simmons 0/82

And how did the Sixers do this year?
28-54

Celtics?
53-29

Grass is always greener guys.

Even with the Celtics sitting on the top chances of the #1 overall pick in the draft.

To turn that around, the Sixers were able to go from 10 wins to 28 wins even though Embiid only played 31 games, Simmons played ZERO games and Bayless, an expected starter, only played 3 games.  They had TJ McConnell, a 2nd year undrafted player, as their starting PG.  Saric, Holmes and TLC showed significant improvement during the season.  The Sixers have a chance to be much improved next season. 

We do have the best chance at the #1 pick but even so that is only 25%.   The Sixers have a 14.7% chance at the #1 pick.  They also have a 53% chance of getting the Lakers pick (4th-6th).

. Bayless couldn't be less relevant. Don't lose your point by acting like that was some significant loss.

[mqtcelticsfan]

I'm confused as to why we're comparing future assets with Philly and Minnesota, when in addition to our prospects and picks we also have a core that won 50 games this year. We aren't just going to let everyone of those players walk away, so you either have to factor in them or asssts we could get for them.

[Celtics4ever]

I'm confused as to why we're comparing future assets with Philly and Minnesota, when in addition to our prospects and picks we also have a core that won 50 games this year. We aren't just going to let everyone of those players walk away, so you either have to factor in them or asssts we could get for them.

Sixers are still in tank mode so it is impossible to know what they have.

[mctyson]

I'm confused as to why we're comparing future assets with Philly and Minnesota, when in addition to our prospects and picks we also have a core that won 50 games this year. We aren't just going to let everyone of those players walk away, so you either have to factor in them or asssts we could get for them.

Because that's what the NBA2KTradeMachine does to basketball.

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid and Simmons have played how many games out of the games possible?

Embiid 31/164
Simmons 0/82

And how did the Sixers do this year?
28-54

Celtics?
53-29

Grass is always greener guys.

Even with the Celtics sitting on the top chances of the #1 overall pick in the draft.

To turn that around, the Sixers were able to go from 10 wins to 28 wins even though Embiid only played 31 games, Simmons played ZERO games and Bayless, an expected starter, only played 3 games.  They had TJ McConnell, a 2nd year undrafted player, as their starting PG.  Saric, Holmes and TLC showed significant improvement during the season.  The Sixers have a chance to be much improved next season. 

We do have the best chance at the #1 pick but even so that is only 25%.   The Sixers have a 14.7% chance at the #1 pick.  They also have a 53% chance of getting the Lakers pick (4th-6th).

Using Bayless as an argument means that it is very very weak.

Ignore everything else and just focus on Bayless.  That's a very, very weak response.   Even so, Bayless will be replacing Rodiguez which should be a significant improvement.  Bayless shot 43.7 3P% when he was playing with Giannis.  He ought to be a good fit with Simmons and Embiid. 

In any case, Simmons and especially Embiid are the keys.   With Embiid on court, the Sixers had a team +/- of 2.2 and def rtg of 99.1.  With him off court, the Sixers team +/- was -6.5 and def rtg was 108.1.  So if the Embiid can play 60 or so games that will make a huge difference for the Sixers.  Then you add in Simmons playing, the improvement of their other young players Saric, Holmes, TLC and probably somewhat improved vets plus whoever they acquire in the draft (53.1% 2 top 7 picks, 39.5% 2 top 5 picks).   

Simmons, Bayless, Covington, Saric and Embiid is not a bad starting lineup.  However if I'm the Sixers, I'd try to trade for Butler (or possibly George).  I'd also see about getting Lowry in free agency.  He's a hardcore North Philly guy and the Raptors may get bounced in the 1st round with limited options to improve. 

[tazzmaniac]

Embiid and Simmons have played how many games out of the games possible?

Embiid 31/164
Simmons 0/82

And how did the Sixers do this year?
28-54

Celtics?
53-29

Grass is always greener guys.

Even with the Celtics sitting on the top chances of the #1 overall pick in the draft.

To turn that around, the Sixers were able to go from 10 wins to 28 wins even though Embiid only played 31 games, Simmons played ZERO games and Bayless, an expected starter, only played 3 games.  They had TJ McConnell, a 2nd year undrafted player, as their starting PG.  Saric, Holmes and TLC showed significant improvement during the season.  The Sixers have a chance to be much improved next season. 

We do have the best chance at the #1 pick but even so that is only 25%.   The Sixers have a 14.7% chance at the #1 pick.  They also have a 53% chance of getting the Lakers pick (4th-6th).

. Bayless couldn't be less relevant. Don't lose your point by acting like that was some significant loss.

Bayless by himself isn't significant but Simmons and Embiid need good shooters around them to be most effective and Bayless could be one of those shooters.  McConnell played surprising well for an undrafted 2nd year player but he only shot 20.0 3P%.  Saric and TLC shot 31.1 and Covington with a horrendously poor start only shot 33.3.  Besides getting Embiid and Simmons healthy, improving their shooting is the most significant improvement that the Sixers could make next season. 

[hwangjini_1]

Embiid and Simmons have played how many games out of the games possible?

Embiid 31/164
Simmons 0/82

And how did the Sixers do this year?
28-54

Celtics?
53-29

Grass is always greener guys.

Even with the Celtics sitting on the top chances of the #1 overall pick in the draft.

To turn that around, the Sixers were able to go from 10 wins to 28 wins even though Embiid only played 31 games, Simmons played ZERO games and Bayless, an expected starter, only played 3 games.  They had TJ McConnell, a 2nd year undrafted player, as their starting PG.  Saric, Holmes and TLC showed significant improvement during the season.  The Sixers have a chance to be much improved next season. 

We do have the best chance at the #1 pick but even so that is only 25%.   The Sixers have a 14.7% chance at the #1 pick.  They also have a 53% chance of getting the Lakers pick (4th-6th).

Using Bayless as an argument means that it is very very weak.

Ignore everything else and just focus on Bayless.  That's a very, very weak response.   Even so, Bayless will be replacing Rodiguez which should be a significant improvement.  Bayless shot 43.7 3P% when he was playing with Giannis.  He ought to be a good fit with Simmons and Embiid. 

In any case, Simmons and especially Embiid are the keys.   With Embiid on court, the Sixers had a team +/- of 2.2 and def rtg of 99.1.  With him off court, the Sixers team +/- was -6.5 and def rtg was 108.1.  So if the Embiid can play 60 or so games that will make a huge difference for the Sixers.  Then you add in Simmons playing, the improvement of their other young players Saric, Holmes, TLC and probably somewhat improved vets plus whoever they acquire in the draft (53.1% 2 top 7 picks, 39.5% 2 top 5 picks).   

Simmons, Bayless, Covington, Saric and Embiid is not a bad starting lineup.  However if I'm the Sixers, I'd try to trade for Butler (or possibly George).  I'd also see about getting Lowry in free agency.  He's a hardcore North Philly guy and the Raptors may get bounced in the 1st round with limited options to improve.

but that's the rub, isn't it? we honestly don't know whether or not embiid will play, or play as well in the future.

what does the equation look like if we change the bolded to "with embiid off the court..."? this whole route by philly has not gone far enough to reasonably judge anything.

[hwangjini_1]

nm. double post, sorry

[smokeablount]

To say we dont have a good future because other teams are further along in their rebuild is dumb.

For how many seasons have the bucks been terrible?  In the last 10 years the bucks have 8 seasons under 40 wins.  We won a championship 9 years ago.

Philly has has been tanking for HALF A DECADE to get where they are.  We had 1 year where we missed the playoffs.


We cant be compared to these teams.  It's pointless.  We do have a bright future, not as bright as theirs, but they have suffered way way more then us to get that.  Thats typically how it goes. 

So why are people arguing about it?

I never said we didn't have a good future, I asked how good it was. And we're making these comparisons because to win a championship, we have to beat Cleveland or Golden State in the short term or win in the medium to long term, and the 3 teams I mentioned have formidable cores moving forward in terms of potential, at least on paper. Not sure how anyone doesn't understand this.

Put it this way- do you think it's more likely we beat Golden State/whoever in the finals the next few years, or win our next title 4+ years from now?

[smokeablount]

To say we dont have a good future because other teams are further along in their rebuild is dumb.

For how many seasons have the bucks been terrible?  In the last 10 years the bucks have 8 seasons under 40 wins.  We won a championship 9 years ago.

Philly has has been tanking for HALF A DECADE to get where they are.  We had 1 year where we missed the playoffs.


We cant be compared to these teams.  It's pointless.  We do have a bright future, not as bright as theirs, but they have suffered way way more then us to get that.  Thats typically how it goes. 

So why are people arguing about it?

I never said we didn't have a good future, I asked how good it was. And we're making these comparisons because to win a championship, we have to beat Cleveland or Golden State in the short term or win in the medium to long term, and the 3 teams I mentioned have formidable cores moving forward in terms of potential, at least on paper. Not sure how anyone doesn't understand this.

Put it this way- do you think it's more likely we beat Golden State/whoever in the finals the next few years, or win our next title 4+ years from now?

[celticsclay]

Embiid and Simmons have played how many games out of the games possible?

Embiid 31/164
Simmons 0/82

And how did the Sixers do this year?
28-54

Celtics?
53-29

Grass is always greener guys.

Even with the Celtics sitting on the top chances of the #1 overall pick in the draft.

To turn that around, the Sixers were able to go from 10 wins to 28 wins even though Embiid only played 31 games, Simmons played ZERO games and Bayless, an expected starter, only played 3 games.  They had TJ McConnell, a 2nd year undrafted player, as their starting PG.  Saric, Holmes and TLC showed significant improvement during the season.  The Sixers have a chance to be much improved next season. 

We do have the best chance at the #1 pick but even so that is only 25%.   The Sixers have a 14.7% chance at the #1 pick.  They also have a 53% chance of getting the Lakers pick (4th-6th).

. Bayless couldn't be less relevant. Don't lose your point by acting like that was some significant loss.

Bayless by himself isn't significant but Simmons and Embiid need good shooters around them to be most effective and Bayless could be one of those shooters.  McConnell played surprising well for an undrafted 2nd year player but he only shot 20.0 3P%.  Saric and TLC shot 31.1 and Covington with a horrendously poor start only shot 33.3.  Besides getting Embiid and Simmons healthy, improving their shooting is the most significant improvement that the Sixers could make next season.

I mean they cut probably their best shooter in Hollis Thompson, which would be odd if they were extremely desperate for shooting. With respect to Bayless, he will be 29 next year and in his 10th NBA season he has never started 20 games in a season and usually that was as an injury replacement in spot starts. Also before his good final shooting season for the Bucks he was at 30% from 3 the previous two years. That is at the same level as TLC and Saric and Covington.
Again, if you are mentioning Bayless as something relevant you are hurting your point.