Author Topic: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?  (Read 1132 times)

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Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2017, 05:08:42 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I think my point is clear: Danny might be doing a whole lot of scheming and planning for nothing.

The Spurs lucked into Duncan, the Lakers lucked into Gasol, the Heat lucked into the Superfriends; even the Cavs got a bit lucky...

It's like Danny is waiting for a perfect situation—á la KG and Ray—that might very well not exist.

Does Danny have a plan? Yes.

Is it worth having a plan? Yes.

Is Danny "over-planning" and not gambling enough? I don't think so.

He's kept draft picks instead of trading them for established players. That's a risk.

He signed Horford hoping Durant would come too. That was a risk.

He held the 2017 BKN pick and will gamble that (a) we get a high draft slot, and may further gamble by keeping the pick and drafting an unproven rookie. Risk.

He hired Stevens, an unproven coach. Big risk.

He traded KG and Pierce for highly uncertain future draft picks. Big gamble.

So to cite the examples of Miami or San Antonio as being ones where there was a certain amount of planning but then a stroke of luck, and to therefore conclude that Danny by comparison isn't allowing luck to enter the picture....it just doesn't match the facts.

You need good planning, yes. And you have to gamble, yes. But Danny's done that, over and over. Maybe we forget he's been gambling because so many of those gambles have been winners.

And the idea that luck is more important than good planning is just clearly wrong. The teams that turned luck into rings complemented their luck with great planning, and the NBA graveyard is littered with teams who hit it big with a franchise player and squandered their chance.

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2017, 05:15:12 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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To answer the OP, plans are good.  But many of the great teams are also blessed with luck.  I don't believe the Celts have gotten that lucky break just yet.  Still have two more chances for convert those Nets picks into a star.  Hopefully it will happen.

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2017, 05:48:47 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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I believe Ainge has a plan and it is a great plan. Sports fans/commentators are so fickle sometimes.  Early this year and for the past 4 years people have praised Ainge's rebuild and said the Celtics are doing something that is extremely rare, i.e. rebuilding while also fielding a competitive team.  Now we lose our first 2 playoff games and all of that is thrown out the window?  Seriously?  We still have great draft picks in this years draft and next years draft along with a young core, that hasn't changed.  Cowherd has been ripping Ainge for not making trades at the deadline, specifically Butler or Paul George, but if you have to gut the core of your team to make a deal for Butler, then you become no different than the Bulls.  If the Bulls would take some draft picks and young players and you could add Butler or George while keeping most of our core, then Ainge probably does it.  If the Bulls are asking for our 2 Brooklyn 1sts along with Crowder, Bradley and Smart then we lose a lot of our core and a lot of our future core for 1 player.  If you say the Bulls should make this trade, then they would end up with Crowder, Bradley, Smart, and the 2 Brooklyn 1sts.  If they should make this trade, then we shouldn't because we already have all of them.  Anyway, I believe Ainge has a plan and he would make a trade for a superstar if we could still keep the bulk of our core in tact.  Otherwise he is committed to building through the draft.  By the way we have a couple of examples of teams that were primarily built through the draft, i.e. Golden State.  They drafted Curry, Thompson, Draymond, Harrison Barnes; they signed a free agent that was a core player in Igudola, but before they even signed Durant much of their core was built through the draft and it took some time.  The Thunder built their team primarily through the draft up until they lost Durant to free agency.  Ultimately I believe we are still in a great position and am excited to see what the future holds!

Yeah, I thought about GS as I was writing the OP, but I concluded that they got pretty lucky—Steph was a No. 7 pick and Thompson a No. 11, and I doubt anyone foresaw them being this good. I'm not even sure GS thought they would be as good as they are. And Green was a second-rounder.

The Thunder are an example often brought up, but as I said in my OP, look at all the great talent OKC drafted and it got them only one Finals trip and zero titles.

I don't buy the premise of this thread at all. 

Sure San Antonio didn't plan on Robinson getting hurt, but once he was, they went into full on tank mode and ended up with the 3rd worst record (which historically has led to more #1 picks than any other position). 

Pau Gasol was an all star before he ever landed in Los Angeles.  All of the major stats (aside from rebounds) his career high was set in Memphis, not Los Angeles.  Pau Gasol was a great player before he went to L.A., period. 

Pat Riley had been planning for that summer for years.  He made all kinds of moves with the sole intention of entering that summer with the ability to offer 3 near max contracts so that he could lure two other top level free agents to play with Wade in Miami.  Now sure, he couldn't really know that James and Bosh would go there, but it was only possible because of the groundwork Riley had laid years prior. 

Sure it takes some luck to build a champion, but every championship team is built by some sort of plan.  Maybe it is a plan like Philly to downright suck for multiple seasons, maybe it is a plan to create cap space for multiple max players and swing for the fences (like Boston did last summer and Miami did in 2010), maybe it is to draft players only to trade them for veterans (like Ainge did in 2008), etc.  You don't build a championship team without a plan.

That's fine. I was feeling pretty emotional at the time I wrote the OP.

My point with the San Antonio example was that they got pretty dang lucky, landing the No. 1 pick despite only the third-best odds, and of course it was in the year Duncan was available and the Celtics had the best odds. Third-best odds may have gotten the most No. 1 picks over time, but that's lucky, any way you slice it.

As far as Pau Gasol, I messed up on that one—yes, he was already a good player when the Lakers got him; what I meant to say was that the Lakers got him for what was thought at the time to be peanuts. Marc Gasol turned out to be pretty dang good himself, but at the time, a lot of people thought the Lakers had pulled a big heist, as the Lakers got Pau in exchange for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, the draft rights to Marc Gasol, and first round picks in 2008 and 2010 (picks that I think were pretty low).

Riley, meanwhile, had been planning, but as you said, he had no guarantees. If those three had decided to go to CLE or TOR, his planning would've meant very little.

All of which is to say, yeah, there has to be some level of planning. But it also seems to me that a ton of planning could be done but ultimately without a huge payoff. That's certainly possible.
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Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2017, 05:53:25 PM »

Online mctyson

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Yes he has a plan, he is executing it, and it has been obvious for a few seasons:

1) Compile assets in the form of draft picks, young players, expiring deals, and veterans on reasonable contracts. 

Status: complete

2) Maintain financial flexibility and cap space so they can compete in the FA market for max-salary players.

Status: complete

3) Draft well, make shrewd trades, and let Brad Stevens demonstrate his player development skills to maximize the talent on the roster.

Status: in progress, with some clear signs of early success

4) When the opportunity presents itself, go ALL IN on a top-10 NBA talent (or young player on his way to that)

Status: to be determined.

I think everything is working according to plan as best it could, and if we get the #1 pick in this draft you will see it all come to fruition.

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #19 on: April 20, 2017, 05:56:45 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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I think he's been stuck between maybe full on rebuilding through the draft and wanting a quick turnaround. The quick turnaround was absolutely an option with Cousins, and maybe even Butler/George available, he's just not willing to forgo the youth rebuild to go that route. He's teetering on what to do and i'm sick of it.

By the time he figures out what to do, he'll have wasted our time supporting a good team he never wanted to take to the next level.
I will never believe Cousins or George would resign in Boston. Danny did the right thing.
 Butler after these 2 wins and if they win the series is the new face of the Bulls. We will have money without Amir Zeller and JJ for someone.  The Draft is the way to go. I trust in DA.
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Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2017, 05:56:57 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Well, we have a terrific young prospect in Jaylen Brown, a top 4 pick in this draft and a nice array of future assets in picks and stashed youngsters overseas and on top of that the team won over 50 games this year.

Yeah, I think the plan is working.

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2017, 06:20:37 PM »

Offline mspring

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There's no doubt that there is always some luck involved in all of this.  If you look at Jimmy Butler, he was the 30th pick, Draymond Green was a 2nd round pick.  No one had any idea they would turn out to be all-star players.  We still don't know how good players like Smart and Brown will turn out to be. 

Someone else pointed out a while back that if you look at Butler's stats his first 2 seasons no one knew he would break out and become as good as he has.  He first came in the league at 22 years old and put up 2.6 pts per game and didn't start putting up double figures until he was 24 years old.  Smart is just now 22 years old and averaged 10.6 points per game.  Who knows how high his ceiling will be.  Butler is 27 now, which is the prime of his career.

All of this to say, there is always luck involved and Ainge has also said that he sees multiple draft picks similar to lottery tickets, i.e. the more you have the more chance you have of landing an all-star no matter where that player was drafted.  Take Isaiah Thomas for example, the last pick in his draft. 


Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #22 on: April 20, 2017, 06:50:40 PM »

Online Ilikesports17

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does it really need to be explained that is is "worth having a plan"?

are we really at that point?
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #23 on: April 20, 2017, 07:35:59 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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does it really need to be explained that is is "worth having a plan"?

are we really at that point?

Well, I said this above, but I'll reiterate:

Quote
I wrote the OP in the heat of the moment, in the immediate aftermath of the Game 2 loss.

So I'm admitting that I wasn't in the best head space at the time, and spoke more harshly than I should've. My apologies for that.

I agree that Danny has a plan. I agree that having some sort of plan is necessary and worth it. I also think that Danny's plan has worked pretty well up to this point. He's giving himself options, ready to strike when the iron is hot.

All of that said, I'm not convinced his plan will work out as well as we all hope. None of us knows, of course, not even Danny—that's where the "luck" part factors in, sometimes to a pretty high degree. But I think a series loss to the Bulls will make it more difficult to attract premier free agents; rival GMs are leery of trading with Danny (rightfully so); and Danny's draft record is not what I'd call outstanding.

I guess his plan is "great" in the sense that he's giving himself the maximum number of opportunities to hit paydirt (multiple draft picks, good cap space, etc.).

"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

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Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #24 on: April 20, 2017, 08:21:45 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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danny's plan was to flip picks for top talent and no one bit on a deal. wyc and danny have said this in the past.

but any team could've easily figured that out by just looking at all their picks, they showed their hand pretty much by acquiring so many picks. which put them in a substantial disadvantage when negotiating.

these draft picks would have been great to keep if there were a Durant, KG, Jordan available but there wasn't or doesn't appear there will be.

Ainge did a great job acquiring these picks and robbing the nets but it's essentially going to amount to us just getting some nice players but nothing like we'd hope for.

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #25 on: April 20, 2017, 09:34:29 PM »

Offline flybono

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When Larry Brown Coached the Pistons to back to back Championship appearances with 1 title in 04 and 05 he did it with NO hall of fame players...

Playing "we need a star card" is just an excuse.. Ainge has zero b@lls in the trade market, zero. He is a pick and stash GM who got lucky with the KG trade.

Again, 3 HOF's those years and 1 Championship is and was a joke!

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #26 on: April 20, 2017, 09:36:23 PM »

Offline flybono

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danny's plan was to flip picks for top talent and no one bit on a deal. wyc and danny have said this in the past.

but any team could've easily figured that out by just looking at all their picks, they showed their hand pretty much by acquiring so many picks. which put them in a substantial disadvantage when negotiating.

these draft picks would have been great to keep if there were a Durant, KG, Jordan available but there wasn't or doesn't appear there will be.

Ainge did a great job acquiring these picks and robbing the nets but it's essentially going to amount to us just getting some nice players but nothing like we'd hope for.


If it were the Spurs or Lakers with those Nets picks, you can bet they would have dealt those picks for Talent..Not pick the Smarts and Browns

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #27 on: April 20, 2017, 09:45:40 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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danny's plan was to flip picks for top talent and no one bit on a deal. wyc and danny have said this in the past.

but any team could've easily figured that out by just looking at all their picks, they showed their hand pretty much by acquiring so many picks. which put them in a substantial disadvantage when negotiating.

these draft picks would have been great to keep if there were a Durant, KG, Jordan available but there wasn't or doesn't appear there will be.

Ainge did a great job acquiring these picks and robbing the nets but it's essentially going to amount to us just getting some nice players but nothing like we'd hope for.

I think there's some bad timing involved, which isn't Danny's fault.

Boston has major cap space for the first time in, like, ever, and there haven't been/doesn't project to be many great ones available—last summer we got Horford but missed Durant, this summer we could very well see Griffin and Hayward return to their current teams, George apparently wants to become a Laker, etc. Just doesn't seem like there's many great options for utilizing the cap space.

Not only that, but right when Boston finally gets cap space, every other team gets big cap space via the new TV deal, and suddenly our cap space doesn't really stand out in the crowed.

"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

"You don't have a soul. You are a Soul. You have a body."

— C.S. Lewis


Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2017, 02:33:45 AM »

Offline cousytoheinsohn

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Plus, who wants to trade with Ainge now? As much as he struggles at drafting, he succeeds in trading, but everyone knows that now and doesn't want to deal with him. And not only do other GMs mistrust Danny, they know that his leverage lessens as various deadlines approach, because at some point he has to actually use those assets—trade exceptions expire, cap room does no good if it's not used, and he has way too many draft picks. So other teams just won't bite, preferring to watch Danny and his assets wither on the vine than take the risk of inadvertently helping him.


Great post, outstanding points.

I think this one is key. Danny is in a double bind of his own making and choosing and, one might add, because of some unsound choosing.

He learned from one of the best, of course, Red, but has taken things a little too far and to the point where he and the Celtics are really going to need the legendary leprechaun to sprinkle some magic dust all over the Garden, or whatever leprechauns do, in the process of delivering some green good luck and a lot of it in order to get to where everyone wants and expects them to be.

And, it's infinitely tougher in this era than it was in Red's.

So, are we feelin' lucky?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I530sPVQSc8

Re: Does Danny have a plan? Is it even worth having a plan?
« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2017, 05:55:00 AM »

Online mr. dee

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I don't think having many 2nd rounders is a bad thing. The more the picks, the better the odds of striking a diamond in a rough. 1st rounder is a different matters though. You can use it to its advantage since rookie scale contracts are much cheaper than some grizzly veteran, especially with bigs.