A couple months ago I took a look at the Four Factors with respect to the Celts vs potential playoff opponents.
Those Four Factors, you probably recall, are as follows:
- Scoring efficiency (EFG% and Opponent EFG%)
- Rebounding (Offensive Rebound Rate and Defensive Rebound Rate)
- Turnovers (TO per 100 and Opponent TO per 100)
- Free Throws (FTM / 100 and Opponent FTM / 100)
To those FF, I added a measure for three pointers -- 3PM per game and Opponent 3PA per game.
Here's how the Celts stack up:
Offense
ORR - 24th
EFG% - 9th
FTM/100 - 9th
3PM - 3rd
TO / possession - 7th
Defense
DRR - 27th
OEFG% - 5th
O3PA - 14th
O. TO / possession - 16th
O. FTM / 100 - 25th
The Celts shoot well, get to the free throw line, hit a lot of threes, and don't turn the ball over too much. They are a good offensive team despite getting very few offensive rebounds.
Defensively, they can't grab defensive boards, they don't force very many turnovers, they give up a lot of free throws, and they're about average at deterring three point attempts. However, they do a good job of defending shots generally.
Here's how the Bulls stack up:
Offense
ORR - 4th
EFG% - 30th
FTM / 100 -14th
TO / per possession - 14th
3PM - 28th
Defense
DRR - 11th
O. EFG% - 10th
O. 3PA - 9th
O. TO - 19th
O. FTM/100 - 2nd
The Bulls are an awful offensive team. They're the least efficient scoring team in the league and they don't hit very many three pointers at all. However, they beast the offensive boards about as well as anybody, and they are about average at getting to the line. They don't turn the ball over too often.
Defensively, they're solid, especially in terms of not sending opponents to the line. They don't force very many turnovers, however.
What it means
Overall, the picture painted by these numbers is about what you would expect: the Celts are a far superior offensive team to the Bulls, but their weakness on the boards combined with the Bulls' strength on the offensive glass means the Bulls will probably have an edge in the possession battle.
The battle of the boards is the heart of this matchup. The Celts only hope is to out-shoot the Bulls and try very hard not to give up too many free throws or offensive rebounds. This Bulls team shouldn't have the firepower to out-score any decent playoff opponent, but the Celts are really bad about bailing opponents out by allowing second chances and sending shooters to the free throw line.
I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Celts to win the possession battle, so I think it'll ultimately come down to Celts role players getting hot from outside. This is the reason that I didn't feel super confident about this matchup.
Last year, the story with this Celts team was that they forced a lot of turnovers to make up for the rebound disparity. This year, they've instead tried to bury opponents with jumpshots and free throws.
These numbers were certainly borne out by how Game 1 of the series went. Let's hope the Celts bring something new to the table for Game 2, or else they could find themselves sent home very early for a very long summer.
If Jimmy Butler continues to match or exceed Isaiah's 4th quarter production, there will be a great deal of pressure on Isaiah's teammates to step up to make the difference. We haven't really seen anybody consistently do that over the course of the regular season, and nobody showed up to do so yesterday.
How the rest of this series plays out will go a long way toward answering whether the formula for success of this current Celts group is something that can be expected to work in the post-season.
So far, the Isaiah Thomas / Brad Stevens Celts are 2-9 in the post-season. There are plenty of caveats and explanations for why that might be, but the number stands all the same. Great players and great coaches find ways to win games they shouldn't and prevail in series against equal or lesser opponents.
Topic: Updated Four Factors - BOS vs CHI (Read 741 times)