help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice

[PhoSita]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

[celticsclay]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

I agree 100% Phosita. I also agree that these plus minus off and on have a ton of noise related to value of backup. If IT has Smart backing him up and Smart is playing well that is going to majorly impact IT's off and on stats. If IT has phil pressey backing him up and coming in with other bad bench players the numbers will change dramatically for factors that have nothing to do with IT.

So look at Westbrook's backups and the OKC bench players. They had Semaj Christon, who was benched partly through the playoffs. They had Norris Cole who was out of the league most of the season. Jerian Grant? An athletic marvel that has added next to nothing to his game. Alex Abrines, a decent shooter that is very raw.

Then you look at Houston. Hilario, Gordon and Louis Williams are coming in. I mean, is that not an insane difference? 

[Ilikesports17]

It blends in with bench qualtiy but on/off splits also are largely reliant on team construction.

OKC is built, both in terms of personnel and gameplan, to be the Russell Westbrook show. They have a bunch of very good defenders, so Russ doesnt have to try there and the only other player on the team comfortable with the ball in his hands is probably oladipo. No one else demands touches, so its all Westbrook all the time. Westbrook also is a bit of a rythym killer.

He comes out of the game and the roster (and gameplan) is lost. No one else does Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline. when Russ is in, so its hard to ask them to leap into rythym and play well.

Houston on the other hand has Lou Williams and Eric Gordon. Harden comes out and you have a couple players very comfortable creating in a pinch. Also, I think Harden helps his teammates more. Now this continues to reflect when Harden sits down. If Harden can help get a couple guys going the team isnt as doomed when he hits the bench.

its similar with James. The team is built speicifcally for him (and by him), so when he (the engine) leaves, the team is lost. This reflects most poorly on Kyrie, who should be able to maintain most of the playmaking Lebron brings, but has not been able to.

[Ilikesports17]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

I agree 100% Phosita. I also agree that these plus minus off and on have a ton of noise related to value of backup. If IT has Smart backing him up and Smart is playing well that is going to majorly impact IT's off and on stats. If IT has phil pressey backing him up and coming in with other bad bench players the numbers will change dramatically for factors that have nothing to do with IT.

So look at Westbrook's backups and the OKC bench players. They had Semaj Christon, who was benched partly through the playoffs. They had Norris Cole who was out of the league most of the season. Jerian Grant? An athletic marvel that has added next to nothing to his game. Alex Abrines, a decent shooter that is very raw.

Then you look at Houston. Hilario, Gordon and Louis Williams are coming in. I mean, is that not an insane difference?

Jerian Grant started last game for the Chicago Bulls.

[Moranis]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

The Cavs and Spurs have very good benches yet when James and Leonard go to the bench their teams are much worse.  Why is it only Houston where this happens?  Might it just be that Harden is a terrible defender such that when he is on the bench the team is just better defensively (obviously not as good offensively)?  I think you are giving Harden a pass that he just doesn't deserve.  His defense is terrible.  Worse than Thomas who at least makes the effort.

[celticsclay]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

The Cavs and Spurs have very good benches yet when James and Leonard go to the bench their teams are much worse.  Why is it only Houston where this happens?  Might it just be that Harden is a terrible defender such that when he is on the bench the team is just better defensively (obviously not as good offensively)?  I think you are giving Harden a pass that he just doesn't deserve.  His defense is terrible.  Worse than Thomas who at least makes the effort.

Curious how you can say the Cavs have a very good bench (or at least have for the whole year) when Lebron was consistently complaining they needed more playmakers and depth for the first 2/3 of the season. Their bench prior to their deadline acquisitions and while missing Smith was Shumpert, Frye, Liggins, Jefferson, Felder?

[Moranis]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

The Cavs and Spurs have very good benches yet when James and Leonard go to the bench their teams are much worse.  Why is it only Houston where this happens?  Might it just be that Harden is a terrible defender such that when he is on the bench the team is just better defensively (obviously not as good offensively)?  I think you are giving Harden a pass that he just doesn't deserve.  His defense is terrible.  Worse than Thomas who at least makes the effort.

Curious how you can say the Cavs have a very good bench (or at least have for the whole year) when Lebron was consistently complaining they needed more playmakers and depth for the first 2/3 of the season. Their bench prior to their deadline acquisitions and while missing Smith was Shumpert, Frye, Liggins, Jefferson, Felder?

If you count Lou Williams then you have to count guys like Korver. And while Eric Gordon only started 15 of his 75 games he was third on the team in mpg so it isn't like he didn't play the majority of the time with Harden.  And Jefferson and Shumpert are very solid bench wings.  Dunleavy was as well before he was traded for Korver.

[celticsclay]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

The Cavs and Spurs have very good benches yet when James and Leonard go to the bench their teams are much worse.  Why is it only Houston where this happens?  Might it just be that Harden is a terrible defender such that when he is on the bench the team is just better defensively (obviously not as good offensively)?  I think you are giving Harden a pass that he just doesn't deserve.  His defense is terrible.  Worse than Thomas who at least makes the effort.

Curious how you can say the Cavs have a very good bench (or at least have for the whole year) when Lebron was consistently complaining they needed more playmakers and depth for the first 2/3 of the season. Their bench prior to their deadline acquisitions and while missing Smith was Shumpert, Frye, Liggins, Jefferson, Felder?

If you count Lou Williams then you have to count guys like Korver. And while Eric Gordon only started 15 of his 75 games he was third on the team in mpg so it isn't like he didn't play the majority of the time with Harden.  And Jefferson and Shumpert are very solid bench wings.  Dunleavy was as well before he was traded for Korver.

I would argue that Louis Williams is twice the player that Korver is at this stage of their career and is far and away the best bench player on either team (will probably be 6th man of the year). Though you are right they only had him for 23 regular season games.

Dunleavy is pretty irrelevant (he saw 7 minutes off the bench in the Hawks last game).

Shumpert and Jefferson are pretty average wings(And Jefferson started about the same number of games as Gordon). I mean are they any better than Sam Decker?
 
It probably isn't getting into the noise of trying to dissect how many times Lebron James was replaced by someone like McCrae/Korver/Jefferson when Harden was replaced by Gordon/Williams.

I feel like you want to have it both ways here. You are suggesting Lebron should get consideration for MVP. However, if they have a decent bench as you seem to be arguing, and two all-stars in Love and Irving (and I do remember you arguing Love should be on the all-star team). How does James bear no responsibility for them massively underachieving and finishing with the 6th best record in the league? Keep in mind the award is just for the regular season....

Either the bench sucked (which skews Lebron's plus/minus numbers in his favor) or the bench was solid, but collectively the talent did not perform enough (including) to win more than 52 games. Can't be both.

[kraidstar]

Swap Westbrook out for LeBron and OKC wins that series comfortably.

He should not be the MVP.

I wouldn't be so sure. Lebron playing alongside two all stars and a large group of accomplished role players won by 1, 6, 5 and 4 points over a team much worse than the Rockets. He would have needed to play MUCH better to beat the Rockets with Oladipo, Adams and Taj Gibson as his teammates. The second best player is probably Oladipo who may very well be the 5th best player on the Cavs team. Will be interesting to see if they can take it up a notch next series if they play the Raptors. The kind of defensive effort against George and scrubs would not get it done against Lowry, Ibaka and Derozen.

I like how all of a sudden Oladipo, Gibson, Adams, Kanter etc are bums when half this blog is on record wanting to trade for them. They were good players until they became scapegoats for OKC's rotten, ball-stopping offense.

Regarding LeBron,

Two seasons ago LeBron gave the Warriors a scare in the Finals playing alongside Tristan Thompson and a bunch of nobodies.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2015-nba-finals-cavaliers-vs-warriors.html

He took the 2008 Celtics (one of the best teams of the last decade IMO) to 7 games with a dubious supporting cast.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2008-nba-eastern-conference-semifinals-cavaliers-vs-celtics.html

He beat a very good Pistons squad in the conference finals in 2007 with a garbage team . (Sasha effing Pavlovic played 32mpg in that series)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2007-nba-finals-cavaliers-vs-spurs.html



Now imagine LeBron playing alongside Durant, Harden, and Ibaka. Good lord.

[celticsclay]

Swap Westbrook out for LeBron and OKC wins that series comfortably.

He should not be the MVP.

I wouldn't be so sure. Lebron playing alongside two all stars and a large group of accomplished role players won by 1, 6, 5 and 4 points over a team much worse than the Rockets. He would have needed to play MUCH better to beat the Rockets with Oladipo, Adams and Taj Gibson as his teammates. The second best player is probably Oladipo who may very well be the 5th best player on the Cavs team. Will be interesting to see if they can take it up a notch next series if they play the Raptors. The kind of defensive effort against George and scrubs would not get it done against Lowry, Ibaka and Derozen.

I like how all of a sudden Oladipo, Gibson, Adams, Kanter etc are bums when half this blog is on record wanting to trade for them. They were good players until they became scapegoats for OKC's rotten, ball-stopping offense.

Regarding LeBron,

Two seasons ago LeBron gave the Warriors a scare in the Finals playing alongside Tristan Thompson and a bunch of nobodies.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2015-nba-finals-cavaliers-vs-warriors.html

He took the 2008 Celtics (one of the best teams of the last decade IMO) to 7 games with a dubious supporting cast.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2008-nba-eastern-conference-semifinals-cavaliers-vs-celtics.html

He beat a very good Pistons squad in the conference finals in 2007 with a garbage team . (Sasha effing Pavlovic played 32mpg in that series)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2007-nba-finals-cavaliers-vs-spurs.html



Now imagine LeBron playing alongside Durant, Harden, and Ibaka. Good lord.

You are kind of creating a bit of a made up situation here. Let us start with the fact that I really don't recall anyone on this board ever clamoring for Kanter. Perhaps when he was very young with Utah. However, on a big contract and locked into a bench scoring big role that is very bad at defense, did people really want him? I honestly didn't expect there.

I do think Celtics would like Adam but that is a combination of us not having a true defensive center and being weak on the boards rather than him being an all-star level player. Similarly Gibson is certainly a solid player and he fits the same needs the Celtics have had the last few years. These are the main reasons people have proposed trades or mentioned them.

The point I was making was that OKC does have a really awful bench. They hardly played it for a little and were changing their backup point guard position throughout the playoffs between christon/Cole. No other way to slice that. That is an awful backup guard rotation.

With respect to your second point. James is obviously an amazing player, and I don't really think many people are calling Westbrook better than him overall (if anyone is). I do think it is a regular season award and for this particular regular season Westbrook had a better regular season. I mean I don't think anyone can argue that Irving and Love are better than Oladip and Adams and Thompson is a capable starting 5. Yet the Cavs won 4 more games. That is crazy.

There is also a pretty big difference between someone being a bum and saying someone is not that great as a second best player.

[Celtics4ever]

Then you would agree Oscar should have won it when he averaged that, but came in 3rd?

Given how long the record stood ought to show you how difficult it truly was, his team is crap without him.   It was last done in 62 so the record stood over what 55 years?

James is obviously an amazing player, and I don't really think many people are calling Westbrook better than him overall (if anyone is). I do think it is a regular season award and for this particular regular season Westbrook had a better regular season.

Kyrie helped carry the Cavs last year.   Wade pretty took over for one of the titles in MIA.   LeBron is a great player but he is not always the best player on his team at times.   I recall clearly when he used to avoid the big moment and pass up such a shot.   He has definitely improved in that regard but my point is he too has his flaws.   He also gets more help from the NBA with all the travels and bail out calls.   Still a great player, even though he is on PEDs.

[Moranis]

I think the On / Off numbers are best for measuring how good or bad a team's bench is, to be honest with you.

Harden has capable backups.

Russ has none.

Whether this figures into the question of how "valuable" they are is a matter of debate.

To say that Harden adds virtually no value to his team because his team doesn't drown in the minutes that he's sitting is a befuddling statement, to say the least.  One might characterize it as mildly insane.


From what I understand, ESPN's RPM statistic attempts to take into account quality of teammates and opponents when looking at such on/off numbers.  The reason for that is obvious -- if you have a good bench, your bench guys might be solidly in the plus against opposing bench players.  That doesn't mean you could run out your bench for a full game and still win.

Harden is solidly in the + in ESPN's RPM.  Russ ranks a bit higher.

I think the statistical case for either Russ or Harden is fairly obvious.  To me, the best argument is what Zach Lowe stated on his podcast: You either believe that Russ's style of play comes with a team-wide cost, or you don't.

I do.

But, Russ is almost certainly going to win MVP, and good for him I suppose.  He had an amazing individual season.  His team was garbage in the post-season because when it came down to it, nobody on that team knew how to execute at the end of a close game unless the plan was to give Russ the ball and hope he made the shot or drew a foul.

Harden won't win MVP but he'll be playing in Round 2, and possibly Round 3.

The Cavs and Spurs have very good benches yet when James and Leonard go to the bench their teams are much worse.  Why is it only Houston where this happens?  Might it just be that Harden is a terrible defender such that when he is on the bench the team is just better defensively (obviously not as good offensively)?  I think you are giving Harden a pass that he just doesn't deserve.  His defense is terrible.  Worse than Thomas who at least makes the effort.

Curious how you can say the Cavs have a very good bench (or at least have for the whole year) when Lebron was consistently complaining they needed more playmakers and depth for the first 2/3 of the season. Their bench prior to their deadline acquisitions and while missing Smith was Shumpert, Frye, Liggins, Jefferson, Felder?

If you count Lou Williams then you have to count guys like Korver. And while Eric Gordon only started 15 of his 75 games he was third on the team in mpg so it isn't like he didn't play the majority of the time with Harden.  And Jefferson and Shumpert are very solid bench wings.  Dunleavy was as well before he was traded for Korver.

I would argue that Louis Williams is twice the player that Korver is at this stage of their career and is far and away the best bench player on either team (will probably be 6th man of the year). Though you are right they only had him for 23 regular season games.

Dunleavy is pretty irrelevant (he saw 7 minutes off the bench in the Hawks last game).

Shumpert and Jefferson are pretty average wings(And Jefferson started about the same number of games as Gordon). I mean are they any better than Sam Decker?
 
It probably isn't getting into the noise of trying to dissect how many times Lebron James was replaced by someone like McCrae/Korver/Jefferson when Harden was replaced by Gordon/Williams.

I feel like you want to have it both ways here. You are suggesting Lebron should get consideration for MVP. However, if they have a decent bench as you seem to be arguing, and two all-stars in Love and Irving (and I do remember you arguing Love should be on the all-star team). How does James bear no responsibility for them massively underachieving and finishing with the 6th best record in the league? Keep in mind the award is just for the regular season....

Either the bench sucked (which skews Lebron's plus/minus numbers in his favor) or the bench was solid, but collectively the talent did not perform enough (including) to win more than 52 games. Can't be both.

the Cavs are terrible when James isn't the game.  There were multiple games this year where the Cavs were +10 or better with James yet lost the game because of the 10 minutes James was on the bench.  The reason for that is because James is just that good and is that valuable.  He has by far the largest on Court vs  off Court numbers in the league.  That is a real measure of value.  Couple that with James having one of the three best statistical seasons of his career and he is the clear MVP in my mind.