Author Topic: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice  (Read 4899 times)

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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2017, 08:05:07 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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I see a lot of guys trying to adjust their MVP criteria to satisfy the media led RW case. Try to use the WB criteria (amazing season, mediocre supporting cast, probable 1st round bounce) and you will realise that MJ, Grant Hill, T-Mac etc. had those and walked away without the award.
Kawhi is the more complete, more succesful and just plain better player this year. He is in that Nowitzki, MJ, Barkley etc. MVP tier. I don't change my case from year to year, that is silly.

Yeah, MJ had a year where he averaged 32.5/8/8, with close to 3 steals and 3.6 turnovers. He did that while shooting 53.8% from the floor. He was 1st team All-Defense. He didn't win MVP, because he only won 47 games. Magic had less impressive stats but a better team.


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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #46 on: April 13, 2017, 08:58:08 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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As I explained above, I think the Thunder would be a slightly below average kind of team if you replace Westbrook with an average starting caliber point guard.

I think the Rockets would be in a similar range with an average starting caliber point guard in place of Harden.


Yet with their stars, the Rockets are significantly better than the Thunder.


Also, I really don't see what you see with Westbrook's defense.  He seems mostly indifferent to me.  Harden at least tries more frequently.
You are underrating the Rockets' supporting cast too much, they would be a borderline playoff team with an average PG (eg. Jeremy Lin)replacing Harden while the Thunder would be a kings type of team if that happened with Westbrook

Am I?

Or am I considering that the Rockets supporting cast would look worse if they didn't play with Harden?

Whereas I'm honestly not convinced the OKC guys wouldn't play better on a team that had to integrate their full skillsets.
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2017, 09:28:10 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Just a note about the quality of the Rockets vs that of the Thunder.

The Rockets have a SRS of 5.84, good for third in the league, with an Expected W-L of 55-27.

The Thunder have a SRS of 1.14, good for 10th in the league, with an Expected W-L of 43-39.

In other words, Harden has elevated the Rockets to genuine contender status.

Russ, on the other hand, hasn't raised OKC above the middle of the pack.


You could point to the fact that they finished a few wins higher than expected and say that Russ's performance in the clutch helped them over perform. One could also argue that was probably due to a good deal of luck.
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2017, 09:32:00 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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OKC without RW a slightly below average kind of team ? seriously????



Read what I said and you'll see I was talking about what would happen if you replaced him with an average starting point guard.

Obviously if you took the star point guard off a team with literally zero nba caliber backups, they'd be terrible.

I don't think MVP ought to be based on how bad your backup is.
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2017, 09:32:38 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I'd still vote for James but I don't expect him to win the award.
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #50 on: April 13, 2017, 09:58:24 AM »

Offline gift

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Quote
OKC is 32-9 when he gets a TD.
When he doesn't 14-25 .....

An alternate theory:

Maybe because once he's achieved his arbitrary counting stats he can focus on winning, rather than forcing assists and stealing rebounds from teammates?

Whereas, on nights when he hasn't reached arbitrary statistical milestones, he chases those stats, winning be [dang]ed.

I can't buy the alternative theory.

  Westbrook seems good at getting triple doubles (league record).
Therefore:
  On nights where he tries to get triple doubles, you would think he would be rather successful at getting triple doubles. If he's good at it and tries to do it, it's more likely he would succeed at the triple double than on nights where he is being more focused on winning. If he's more focused on winning because he already has the triple double, we'd have to conclude that he is great at accidentally getting triple doubles, but terrible at actually trying for them.

It's more likely he's always trying for the stats, and the way his team is built, that actually helps his team win. If that's the case, it's a solid MVP argument.

I don't like Harden and actually hate watching him play, but I'd have to admit he's probably MVP this year (with Lebron being the real MVP every year). I'd like to see Westbrook get it though.

Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2017, 10:24:21 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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It's more likely he's always trying for the stats, and the way his team is built, that actually helps his team win. If that's the case, it's a solid MVP argument.


I agree with the first part, but I don't find it to be a persuasive argument for MVP.

It seems to me that the Thunder have built their roster and their gameplan around "letting Russ be Russ."  I think it has been their goal almost every night to actually help Russ to achieve the statistical milestones he's been gunning for basically all season.

It's a donkey-backward way to go about playing basketball, but it has made their team a lot more interesting than they ought to have been after Durant left them in the lurch.

When the plan works, the Thunder are more likely to win, just as any team is more likely to succeed when it's managing to execute its first choice gameplan.


Two years ago, Kevin Durant got hurt and missed all but 27 games in the 2014-2015 season.  The Thunder won 45 games while Russ went HAM on the league every night.  Russ didn't come close to winning MVP that year.

Why should it be different this year because he added a couple points, a couple assists, and a couple rebounds to his averages?  His usage rate went up and he had sole possession of the team's driver's seat for the full season.  I'm not sure he's a much better player this season than he was back then.
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2017, 10:40:27 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnAL17fUogE


Coach Nick with a case for Kawhi.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2017, 11:14:47 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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I'd still vote for James but I don't expect him to win the award.

Would you be mailing your vote In from your house in Cleveland?

Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2017, 11:40:07 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I've been saying for the past few years that Westbrook, not Durant, was the best player in OKC. Now he's proving that to be true.

Of all the things in your post I disagree with, of which there are a lot, this is by far the one I disagree with the most.

I do not in any way think this proves Westbrook is better than Durant.

What I do think it does, is completely validate Durant for leaving OKC. It has become glaringly obvious this is what Russ wanted to be the whole time, the unquestioned alpha dog. Russ has proven to everyone that he is the selfish, me-first ball hog everyone always knew him to be. 

Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #55 on: April 13, 2017, 11:47:45 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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I guess I'm just missing the boat here on where its egregious if Westbrook wins the MVP?  I certainly don't think it'd go down as one of more controversial MVPs in league history.    Some people are really getting their panties in a bunch about this possibility.

(And its probably not a question of "if, it's "when")


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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #56 on: April 13, 2017, 12:01:23 PM »

Offline Who

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I think it's neck and neck between Harden and Westbrook.

I don't see Kawhi in the race. He would be most years but those two have both just been so incredible this season. They have blown everyone else out of the water.

LeBron's team has underachieved too badly for me to consider him as MVP. The 3 Golden State guys (Durant, Steph, Draymond) have all gotten each other's way a bit. All 3 have a solid case for being a top 5 MVP candidate.

I don't like the argument that the MVP should only come from a contender. I will give extra notice to players on strong teams but every one in awhile someone comes along and does something truly astonishing from a mid-level team and when that happens I am happy to consider them for MVP. I think Kobe Bryant was the last one to do so.

Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #57 on: April 13, 2017, 01:26:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I guess I'm just missing the boat here on where its egregious if Westbrook wins the MVP?  I certainly don't think it'd go down as one of more controversial MVPs in league history.    Some people are really getting their panties in a bunch about this possibility.

(And its probably not a question of "if, it's "when")

Personally I think about what Bill Simmons wrote about "the secret" of basketball.

Quote
"The secret of basketball is that it’s not about basketball."
Here’s what Isiah Thomas meant: the guys who have the best numbers don’t always make the best team. Now here’s an excerpt from the book where Simmons talks about a trade the Detroit Pistons made:

"Maybe Dantley was a better player than Aguirre, but Aguirre was a better fit for the 1989 Pistons. If they didn’t make that deal, they wouldn’t have won the championship. It was a people trade, not a basketball trade.And that’s what Isiah learned while following those Lakers and Celtics teams around: it wasn’t about basketball.Those teams were loaded with talented players, yes, but that’s not the only reason they won. They won because they liked each other, knew their roles, ignored statistics, and valued winning over everything else."
Simmons went on to say the following:

"Fans overlook The Secret completely. Nobody writes about The Secret because of a general lack of sophistication about basketball; even the latest ‘revolution’ of basketball statistics centers more around evaluating players against one another over capturing their effect on a team.Numbers help, but only to a certain degree. You still have to watch the games.The fans don’t get it. Actually, it goes deeper than that—I’m not sure who gets it. We measure players by numbers, only the playoffs roll around and teams that play together, kill themselves defensively, sacrifice personal success and ignore statistics invariably win the title. We have trouble processing the ‘teamwork over talent’ thing. But how do you keep stats for ‘best chemistry’ and ‘most unselfish’ or even ‘most tangible and consistent effect on a group of teammates’? It’s impossible. That’s why we struggle to comprehend professional basketball."
And here’s a quote from NBA legend Bill Russell:

"I always thought that the most important measure of how good a game I played was how much better I made my teammates play."



This, to me, is why Tim Duncan had a better career and was a better player at his peak than Kobe Bryant, hands down.  It's not even close, to be honest.

And that is also why I think you've got to take team success and chemistry into account when you are looking at who should be considered "most valuable" in any given season.  The award should not just be about who racks up the most counting stats.  It should be about who actually elevates their team. 

Russ has had an amazing season, but if I'm being perfectly honest I think his team did more to help him achieve those stats than he did to help his team play the best basketball they could play.  Does that make sense?  I want to really emphasize that, because it's really the heart of my argument on Russ.  I've tried to articulate that notion in a few different ways in this thread.

Harden and Kawhi both played on teams with better roster balance and cohesion, with offensive systems that maximized the strengths of the players in them.

However, I think Russ is also a product of a system -- that is, a system in which he does everything and his teammates clean up whatever mess is left over.  I think that as KG's Knee pointed out, Russ is in large part the cause of that state of affairs.  The Thunder were left with no stars but Russ, and they know exactly how Russ would want to play: with the ball in his hands always, doing everything for the team while he was on the floor. 

I think they were probably as good this year as they possibly could be playing that style.  I don't agree that that style was the best way they could achieve success as a team.  But it certainly maximized Russ's ability to put up counting stats.


If you want to argue for Kawhi, I won't argue much.  He's the best two way player on the second best team in the league in terms of record.

Harden I think did more than any other individual player this season to lift his team offensively.  He made his teammates better.  Just look at the seasons that Nene and Capela had, not to mention Anderson, Gordon, and Ariza.

Steph Curry should still be in this conversation, in my opinion, because he's every bit as good this year as he was in 2015, and his team was the clear cut best team in the league from start to finish.  The fact that Durant joined his team this year knocked him out of the running, though I'm not sure that's fair.  He's still the best player on the best team.  He still breaks the game when he's on the floor because of his unreal shooting and ball handling.


In any case, to me Russ is maybe the 5th or 6th best player in the world, and he didn't really make his teammates better, nor does his presence on the floor make his team a threat to win a playoff series.  Therefore, he's not my first or second choice for MVP.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2017, 01:34:40 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #58 on: April 13, 2017, 04:00:18 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I guess I'm just missing the boat here on where its egregious if Westbrook wins the MVP?  I certainly don't think it'd go down as one of more controversial MVPs in league history.    Some people are really getting their panties in a bunch about this possibility.

(And its probably not a question of "if, it's "when")

The sort-of paradox is that among the 3 guys likely to get it, there are no bad choices, but they're all bad omissions. Meaning whoever wins will deserve it for his incredible season, but the two guys who don't will be terrible snubs for THEIR incredible seasons, if that makes any sense. Especially Harden/Westbrook.

The NBA picked the right year to switch the awards to a end-of-year ceremony, I'll say that.

Re: help prevent a crime: post here to support correct MVP choice
« Reply #59 on: April 13, 2017, 04:30:53 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I guess I'm just missing the boat here on where its egregious if Westbrook wins the MVP?  I certainly don't think it'd go down as one of more controversial MVPs in league history.    Some people are really getting their panties in a bunch about this possibility.

(And its probably not a question of "if, it's "when")

The sort-of paradox is that among the 3 guys likely to get it, there are no bad choices, but they're all bad omissions. Meaning whoever wins will deserve it for his incredible season, but the two guys who don't will be terrible snubs for THEIR incredible seasons, if that makes any sense. Especially Harden/Westbrook.

The NBA picked the right year to switch the awards to a end-of-year ceremony, I'll say that.


If the Thunder get bounced in 4-5 games in the 1st round, Westbrook winning MVP sometime in June will have a slightly different tone than if they handed out the award before the playoffs started.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain