Author Topic: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler  (Read 8853 times)

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Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #45 on: March 31, 2017, 02:57:46 PM »

Offline jakeopp

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Tatums ceiling is danny granger. Not sure why you would want to pass on that.

Lots of players have ceilings that high, whether they get there is another matter completely.

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #46 on: March 31, 2017, 03:00:03 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Tatums ceiling is danny granger. Not sure why you would want to pass on that.

Lots of players have ceilings that high, whether they get there is another matter completely.
first off no lots players don't

2nd: We're the #1 seed. We can add 1-2 star  free agents and draft a top 4 pick this off season and continue the dynasty without trading for a rental of Jimmy "9 seed" butler. There's no rush to add butler unless he's a free  agent

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #47 on: March 31, 2017, 03:14:33 PM »

Offline jakeopp

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Tatums ceiling is danny granger. Not sure why you would want to pass on that.

Lots of players have ceilings that high, whether they get there is another matter completely.
first off no lots players don't

2nd: We're the #1 seed. We can add 1-2 star  free agents and draft a top 4 pick this off season and continue the dynasty without trading for a rental of Jimmy "9 seed" butler. There's no rush to add butler unless he's a free  agent

Many of the leagues best SFs weren't even drafted highly

Butler - 30th
George - 10th
Kawhi - 15th
Giannis - 15th
Hayward - 9th

Non-SFs

IT - 60th
Draymond - 35th
Kyle Lowry - 24th
Marc Gasol - 48th
Millsap - 47th
Tony Parker - 28th
Manu - 57th

My point? Stars come from all over the draft.

As for being the one seed, that's great and all but I don't see what it has to do with anything. We aren't contending this year.

Add two star free agents?

1. We can't afford two star free agents to my knowledge.
2. Our chances at any of them are very minimal.


The Bull's playoff seeding is irrelevant.

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #48 on: March 31, 2017, 03:42:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Tatums ceiling is danny granger. Not sure why you would want to pass on that.

Lots of players have ceilings that high, whether they get there is another matter completely.
first off no lots players don't

2nd: We're the #1 seed. We can add 1-2 star  free agents and draft a top 4 pick this off season and continue the dynasty without trading for a rental of Jimmy "9 seed" butler. There's no rush to add butler unless he's a free  agent

Many of the leagues best SFs weren't even drafted highly

Butler - 30th
George - 10th
Kawhi - 15th
Giannis - 15th
Hayward - 9th

Non-SFs

IT - 60th
Draymond - 35th
Kyle Lowry - 24th
Marc Gasol - 48th
Millsap - 47th
Tony Parker - 28th
Manu - 57th

My point? Stars come from all over the draft.

As for being the one seed, that's great and all but I don't see what it has to do with anything. We aren't contending this year.

Add two star free agents?

1. We can't afford two star free agents to my knowledge.
2. Our chances at any of them are very minimal.


The Bull's playoff seeding is irrelevant.
My post from this thread http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=88502.960  Basically, yeah you can get talent from anywhere, but you are just so much more likely to get the real franchise altering talent, when you pick at the top of the draft.  I mean the difference between a top 6 pick and a pick 11-16 is a very large gap. 

Quote
BTW, I found our friend LarBrd's post over on Reddit about this exact topic.  He looked at every draft from 1972-2012 and performed an analysis.  I haven't checked his analysis, but its seems about right to me and I have no reason to not believe the information.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/5zwryt/is_tanking_worth_it_analysis_on_the_probability/

It is a rather long post, but here are the highlights.

- A top 6 pick has a 43% chance of ending up an all-star.  29% chance of all-NBA.  18% chance of Hall of Famer
- 11-16 pick has a 13% chance of ending up an all-star.  7% chance of All-NBA.  4% chance of Hall of Famer.


Now if you look at 3 years with picks in those range.

- Three Top 6 picks give you an 83.5% chance of ending up with at least 1 star.  66.5% chance of an All-NBA player.   46% chance at a hall-of-Famer
- Three 11-16 picks give you a 35.7% chance at a star.  19.7% chance at All-NBA.  12.7% chance at Hall of Famer.


If you add in that 4th top 6 pick

- Four Top 6 picks = 91.1% chance at star.  77% chance at All-NBA.  56.5% chance at Hall of Fame.
- Four 11-16 picks = 44.8% chance at star.  25.6% chance at All-NBa.  16.6% chance at Hall of Fame.   


In other words, it isn't just suck and get lucky.  Every single team has significantly higher odds of landing franchise changing talent from being a bottom 6 team vs. barely missing or barely making the playoffs.  The Sixers were a team that was in that 11-16 range and had been in that range for years.  The odds of them finding a Kawhi Leonard just weren't that good.  It might have eventually happened, of course just 1 Kawhi Leonard doesn't make them a contender without other hits as well, and those hits are just so much more difficult to come by drafting outside of the top 6.  The goal of a NBA franchise is to win a title, as strange as it sounds, the Sixers best path to winning a title was to tank.  That is why countless franchises throughout league history have tanked.  Heck the NBA put the lottery into effect because of teams tanking.  This isn't some new thing Philly did.  They were a bit more brazen about it, but tanking has existed as long as the league has existed because basketball is the one sport where 1 player can be the difference between being a bottom feeder and a perennial contender.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #49 on: March 31, 2017, 06:54:42 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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The only thing that Shane Battier and Tatum have in common are that they are light skinned guys that went to Duke.

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #50 on: March 31, 2017, 07:20:37 PM »

Offline chambers

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Tatums ceiling is danny granger. Not sure why you would want to pass on that.

We're the #1 seed. We can add 1-2 star  free agents and draft a top 4 pick this off season and continue the dynasty without trading for a rental of Jimmy "9 seed" butler

So Tatum's ceiling is Granger, and Granger wasn't ever as good as Butler is now, but you would risk the gamble  that Tatum might reach Granger status rather than give the pick up for Butler, who is better than Granger.

Right-ee-o.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #51 on: March 31, 2017, 07:24:06 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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Problem with trading for Butler -- or any other player -- on draft night is that the draft comes before free agency. The Celtics have a decent shot of adding Gordon Hayward, for instance, and hanging on to their top draft pick. If you trade for Butler you basically take yourself out of the running for free agents, that's the issue.

I'm sure they can make the deal on draft night--and just delay the trade, until after FA starts.

Clev did something similar in the Love/Wiggins deal.
Larry Bird was Greater than you think.

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #52 on: March 31, 2017, 08:29:50 PM »

Offline ThaPreacher

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If this question essentially boils down to "3-5 years of Jimmy Butler at age 28-30+ or 8-9+ years of Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum at age 20-28," I think I would probably prefer to use the pick.

After all, we might be able to trade for Butler without including the 2017 Nets pick anyway.

Indeed! Don't sleep  on Josh Jackson or Jonathan Isaac.  They may be the players in this years draft! Keep the pick and sign a free agent!
"Just do what you do best."  -Red Auerbach-

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #53 on: March 31, 2017, 09:34:57 PM »

Offline LilRip

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For the record, I would think Butler's price has gone down. Bulls aren't really dealing from a position of strength and I don't think it will cost us a BKN pick to do the deal.

Marcus Smart is my favorite player on this team, but all feelings and fandom aside, I think Rozier + Smart + 2 non-BKN 1st rounders as well as salary filler get this deal done. Our 1-3 rotation would look like:
IT/Fultz
Bradley/Brown
Butler/Crowder

That's pretty elite.

LOL

You don't really think you're getting a top ~15 player for two backup point guards and late first round picks do you?

I don't think it's crazy. 2 first rounders is a pretty good haul, as well as a couple of intriguing prospects. Add in salary filler like Zeller and you get cap space.

After all, what did the Kings get for all-NBA Cousins? Buddy Hield and a pick? What did Orlando get for perennial DPOY Dwight Howard? Vucevic (an unknown at the time) and Afflalo? What did we get for trip-dub machine and multiple time all star Rondo? Crowder (an unknown) and Brandan Wright?

- LilRip

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #54 on: April 01, 2017, 01:59:27 AM »

Offline jakeopp

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If this question essentially boils down to "3-5 years of Jimmy Butler at age 28-30+ or 8-9+ years of Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum at age 20-28," I think I would probably prefer to use the pick.

After all, we might be able to trade for Butler without including the 2017 Nets pick anyway.

Indeed! Don't sleep  on Josh Jackson or Jonathan Isaac.  They may be the players in this years draft! Keep the pick and sign a free agent!

During the claimed "3-5 years" of Jimmy Butler you are getting a guaranteed All-Star talent. The "8-9+ years" of Jackson/Tatum/Isaac sounds great if they end up being all-star level players, but a majority of top 5 picks don't get there. It's a gamble, but could pay off big if Danny drafts well. Trading for Jimmy puts us maybe at Clevelands level (if they keep playing like this), but we'd still be a star away from the Warriors level in my opinion, so maybe the "build for the future" route is best while we wait for GSW to cool off.


Decided to look at recent draft history to get an idea of how top 5 picks have turned out, here's what I came up with. Excluded 2013-2016 since the jury is still out on some of those guys.

Top 5 picks from 2004-2012 who made at least one All-Star Game
2004 - Dwight, Devin Harris (?)
2005 - Deron Williams, CP3
2006 - Aldridge
2007 - Durant, Horford
2008 - Rose, Westbrook, Love
2009 - Griffin, Harden
2010 - Wall, Cousins
2011 - Kyrie
2012 - Davis, Beal*

*Hasn't actually made it yet but he's an all star talent obviously

Anyways, that's just 17 out of 45 players or ~37.8%.  Out of those 17, 6 of them were drafted #1 overall. Leaving Andrea Bargnani, Greg Oden & Andrew Bogut as the only #1 pick busts over that span. No suprise, but the odds of picking an all-star at #1 have been much better than 2-5.

Obviously though these drafts are all different in strength. This is supposed to be a stronger draft, so maybe it ends up like 2008 or 2003 (Lebrick, Darko, Melo, Bosh, Wade - though there isn't a Lebron level talent in this draft).
« Last Edit: April 01, 2017, 02:27:20 AM by jakeopp »

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #55 on: April 01, 2017, 04:35:19 AM »

Offline greece66

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@jakeopp

good stuff

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #56 on: April 01, 2017, 05:23:06 AM »

Offline gouki88

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If this question essentially boils down to "3-5 years of Jimmy Butler at age 28-30+ or 8-9+ years of Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum at age 20-28," I think I would probably prefer to use the pick.

After all, we might be able to trade for Butler without including the 2017 Nets pick anyway.

Indeed! Don't sleep  on Josh Jackson or Jonathan Isaac.  They may be the players in this years draft! Keep the pick and sign a free agent!

During the claimed "3-5 years" of Jimmy Butler you are getting a guaranteed All-Star talent. The "8-9+ years" of Jackson/Tatum/Isaac sounds great if they end up being all-star level players, but a majority of top 5 picks don't get there. It's a gamble, but could pay off big if Danny drafts well. Trading for Jimmy puts us maybe at Clevelands level (if they keep playing like this), but we'd still be a star away from the Warriors level in my opinion, so maybe the "build for the future" route is best while we wait for GSW to cool off.


Decided to look at recent draft history to get an idea of how top 5 picks have turned out, here's what I came up with. Excluded 2013-2016 since the jury is still out on some of those guys.

Top 5 picks from 2004-2012 who made at least one All-Star Game
2004 - Dwight, Devin Harris (?)
2005 - Deron Williams, CP3
2006 - Aldridge
2007 - Durant, Horford
2008 - Rose, Westbrook, Love
2009 - Griffin, Harden
2010 - Wall, Cousins
2011 - Kyrie
2012 - Davis, Beal*

*Hasn't actually made it yet but he's an all star talent obviously

Anyways, that's just 17 out of 45 players or ~37.8%.  Out of those 17, 6 of them were drafted #1 overall. Leaving Andrea Bargnani, Greg Oden & Andrew Bogut as the only #1 pick busts over that span. No suprise, but the odds of picking an all-star at #1 have been much better than 2-5.

Obviously though these drafts are all different in strength. This is supposed to be a stronger draft, so maybe it ends up like 2008 or 2003 (Lebrick, Darko, Melo, Bosh, Wade - though there isn't a Lebron level talent in this draft).
TP for the good write up. I always forget that Devin Harris was once a pretty formidable point guard.

However if we were able to get Butler AND the top 4 pick then that's obviously the go.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #57 on: April 01, 2017, 05:42:24 AM »

Offline greece66

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For the record, I would think Butler's price has gone down. Bulls aren't really dealing from a position of strength and I don't think it will cost us a BKN pick to do the deal.

Marcus Smart is my favorite player on this team, but all feelings and fandom aside, I think Rozier + Smart + 2 non-BKN 1st rounders as well as salary filler get this deal done. Our 1-3 rotation would look like:
IT/Fultz
Bradley/Brown
Butler/Crowder

That's pretty elite.

LOL

You don't really think you're getting a top ~15 player for two backup point guards and late first round picks do you?

I don't think it's crazy. 2 first rounders is a pretty good haul, as well as a couple of intriguing prospects. Add in salary filler like Zeller and you get cap space.

After all, what did the Kings get for all-NBA Cousins? Buddy Hield and a pick? What did Orlando get for perennial DPOY Dwight Howard? Vucevic (an unknown at the time) and Afflalo? What did we get for trip-dub machine and multiple time all star Rondo? Crowder (an unknown) and Brandan Wright?
Ehm wait, we also got Jameer Nelson, a second in 2015 (iirc Marcus Thornton), and a first in 2016 (Yabusele).

With hindsight, there is little doubt Boston won that trade. This is not only because the return was pretty good, but also because the post ACL injury 29 yo Rondo was not the same value as the All Star Rondo. (I'm p sure Dallas was aware of this, why they still agreed to the trade is another story.)

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #58 on: April 01, 2017, 07:53:17 AM »

Offline chambers

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So let's say we end up only landing with #3 or #4, do you take Josh Jackson or somebody else or do you trade it away for Jimmy Butler and look forward to another top pick in 2018?

You miss the question badly.

Pick 3/4 + Smart + Crowder + Brown or Jimmy Butler??

I have zero doubts.

Way too much for Butler. We would nevet give that up.
It would be Bradley+pick #3 or 4.

The Bulls laugh at that offer. We need two good assets at least, plus the pick.

If that was the price, Butler would be a Celtic long ago.

Mate you are miles off. lol.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Pick #3/#4 or Jimmy Butler
« Reply #59 on: April 01, 2017, 08:24:12 AM »

Offline Darío SpanishFan

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So let's say we end up only landing with #3 or #4, do you take Josh Jackson or somebody else or do you trade it away for Jimmy Butler and look forward to another top pick in 2018?

You miss the question badly.

Pick 3/4 + Smart + Crowder + Brown or Jimmy Butler??

I have zero doubts.

Way too much for Butler. We would nevet give that up.
It would be Bradley+pick #3 or 4.

The Bulls laugh at that offer. We need two good assets at least, plus the pick.

If that was the price, Butler would be a Celtic long ago.

Mate you are miles AWAY. lol.

Fixed for you, "mate"  ::)