Author Topic: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.  (Read 5650 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2017, 04:29:59 PM »

Offline jpotter33

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48137
  • Tommy Points: 2922
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

Thanks, TP.

I figured it would have to be after the draft and we signed the draftee utilizing his salary, too. I was hoping we'd be able to do it with a similar amount of flexibility at the draft itself, since it seemingly would increase the chance of a good trade in our direction. I know we can always agree to a deal on draft night (or some prior time) and perform it later after the draftee has been signed (ala the Love deal), but that always involves some amount of risk.

But I agree with you on questioning whether or not it's the right thing to do, to an extent. The playoffs will ultimately (at least partly) determine what route we should take next, but other factors should be involved, too:

1) If we would happen to get bounced in the first round, or at least struggle in the first round and give very little resistance in the second round, then perhaps we're not as "close" as we once thought and keeping the pick would make more sense.

2) If both Indiana or Chicago would insist on Crowder being part of the deal instead of AB, it makes little sense to complete the trade, since it'd be really difficult to afford everyone in that scenario next year and beyond anyways.

3) The draft order and how the draft actually plays out will affect how it should go, too. I'm in love with Fultz, and if we have a chance to get him, either at the number one pick or him falling to two or three, then I don't think I can justify trading him.

So further question - some think we might be able to get one of George or Butler without giving up the Brooklyn pick this year. I seriously doubt that, because I don't think we could legitimately keep that out of the deal and still have a realistic shot at one of them. But could that even work financially without decimating our core, i.e. losing both AB AND Crowder, perhaps along with Smart, too? (Assuming we're keeping space for a free agent, that is. Obviously we could do it if we're not concerned about that.)

If you want to keep the Brooklyn pick, you have two "realistic" options (up to the reader to decide how realistic):

If the pick is #1, such that Rozier needs to be traded for max FA room, then it's AB+Brown+Zizic+future picks.

If the pick is #2 or lower, such that we don't have to trade Rozier to make max room, you can sub him in for Zizic in the above.

Crowder makes $2 million less than AB this season, so it's probably not doable with him instead of Bradley in the #1 pick scenario.  In the #2-4 pick scenario, you can make it Crowder+Brown+Zizic+Rozier, but I think that's even more ridiculous than the other options.  You can also sub Smart in for Brown in most of the combinations, if you'd rather keep Jaylen.

Pretty much all of these lead to record tax bills, however, so I wouldn't count on any of them.

That's actually not quite as crazy as I was thinking. If we were able to land Griffin this summer, I'd really, really think hard about trading AB, Brown, Rozier, and future picks for Butler, depending upon the exact picks. Zizic would make things a bit less desirable, though.

But the record tax bills would be assuming that we'd keep both IT AND Smart next summer in this scenario, right? If we'd be lucky enough to nab Fultz, preferably with the 2nd pick, and he plays up to his potential, it might not be a guarantee that we retain both IT AND Smart in that scenario.

If he does play up to his potential, either he'd prove that he's ready to start and contribute in year two, letting us let IT walk for the max elsewhere, or (more likely) he'd show that he's capable and versatile enough to lead the bench unit until ready to start full-time, allowing us to let Smart take bigger money elsewhere.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2017, 04:39:00 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8826
  • Tommy Points: 289
I wouldnt trade the 2017 Nets pick for Butler at this point. The Bulls are also a mess they have no idea what they are doing. It's a bipolar front office and owner.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2017, 04:49:40 PM »

Offline JBcat

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3642
  • Tommy Points: 512
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

Thanks, TP.

I figured it would have to be after the draft and we signed the draftee utilizing his salary, too. I was hoping we'd be able to do it with a similar amount of flexibility at the draft itself, since it seemingly would increase the chance of a good trade in our direction. I know we can always agree to a deal on draft night (or some prior time) and perform it later after the draftee has been signed (ala the Love deal), but that always involves some amount of risk.

But I agree with you on questioning whether or not it's the right thing to do, to an extent. The playoffs will ultimately (at least partly) determine what route we should take next, but other factors should be involved, too:

1) If we would happen to get bounced in the first round, or at least struggle in the first round and give very little resistance in the second round, then perhaps we're not as "close" as we once thought and keeping the pick would make more sense.

2) If both Indiana or Chicago would insist on Crowder being part of the deal instead of AB, it makes little sense to complete the trade, since it'd be really difficult to afford everyone in that scenario next year and beyond anyways.

3) The draft order and how the draft actually plays out will affect how it should go, too. I'm in love with Fultz, and if we have a chance to get him, either at the number one pick or him falling to two or three, then I don't think I can justify trading him.

So further question - some think we might be able to get one of George or Butler without giving up the Brooklyn pick this year. I seriously doubt that, because I don't think we could legitimately keep that out of the deal and still have a realistic shot at one of them. But could that even work financially without decimating our core, i.e. losing both AB AND Crowder, perhaps along with Smart, too? (Assuming we're keeping space for a free agent, that is. Obviously we could do it if we're not concerned about that.)

If you want to keep the Brooklyn pick, you have two "realistic" options (up to the reader to decide how realistic):

If the pick is #1, such that Rozier needs to be traded for max FA room, then it's AB+Brown+Zizic+future picks.

If the pick is #2 or lower, such that we don't have to trade Rozier to make max room, you can sub him in for Zizic in the above.

Crowder makes $2 million less than AB this season, so it's probably not doable with him instead of Bradley in the #1 pick scenario.  In the #2-4 pick scenario, you can make it Crowder+Brown+Zizic+Rozier, but I think that's even more ridiculous than the other options.  You can also sub Smart in for Brown in most of the combinations, if you'd rather keep Jaylen.

Pretty much all of these lead to record tax bills, however, so I wouldn't count on any of them.

That's actually not quite as crazy as I was thinking. If we were able to land Griffin this summer, I'd really, really think hard about trading AB, Brown, Rozier, and future picks for Butler, depending upon the exact picks. Zizic would make things a bit less desirable, though.

But the record tax bills would be assuming that we'd keep both IT AND Smart next summer in this scenario, right? If we'd be lucky enough to nab Fultz, preferably with the 2nd pick, and he plays up to his potential, it might not be a guarantee that we retain both IT AND Smart in that scenario.

If he does play up to his potential, either he'd prove that he's ready to start and contribute in year two, letting us let IT walk for the max elsewhere, or (more likely) he'd show that he's capable and versatile enough to lead the bench unit until ready to start full-time, allowing us to let Smart take bigger money elsewhere.

I'm not sure about including Brown in a deal for Bulter.  I think his upside equals Butler's level. Also while AB is not on Butler's level he can guard many of the top PGs in the league while Thomas is guarding off the ball. Then we are talking about the Nets pick too...just not sure what I think about it.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2017, 04:56:13 PM »

Offline hardlyyardley

  • NCE
  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1190
  • Tommy Points: 149
Smart, Brown Bradley etc in any combo plus the 2018 pick is too much....Rather see an IT for Butler as a starter

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2017, 05:18:04 PM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

Thanks, TP.

I figured it would have to be after the draft and we signed the draftee utilizing his salary, too. I was hoping we'd be able to do it with a similar amount of flexibility at the draft itself, since it seemingly would increase the chance of a good trade in our direction. I know we can always agree to a deal on draft night (or some prior time) and perform it later after the draftee has been signed (ala the Love deal), but that always involves some amount of risk.

But I agree with you on questioning whether or not it's the right thing to do, to an extent. The playoffs will ultimately (at least partly) determine what route we should take next, but other factors should be involved, too:

1) If we would happen to get bounced in the first round, or at least struggle in the first round and give very little resistance in the second round, then perhaps we're not as "close" as we once thought and keeping the pick would make more sense.

2) If both Indiana or Chicago would insist on Crowder being part of the deal instead of AB, it makes little sense to complete the trade, since it'd be really difficult to afford everyone in that scenario next year and beyond anyways.

3) The draft order and how the draft actually plays out will affect how it should go, too. I'm in love with Fultz, and if we have a chance to get him, either at the number one pick or him falling to two or three, then I don't think I can justify trading him.

So further question - some think we might be able to get one of George or Butler without giving up the Brooklyn pick this year. I seriously doubt that, because I don't think we could legitimately keep that out of the deal and still have a realistic shot at one of them. But could that even work financially without decimating our core, i.e. losing both AB AND Crowder, perhaps along with Smart, too? (Assuming we're keeping space for a free agent, that is. Obviously we could do it if we're not concerned about that.)

If you want to keep the Brooklyn pick, you have two "realistic" options (up to the reader to decide how realistic):

If the pick is #1, such that Rozier needs to be traded for max FA room, then it's AB+Brown+Zizic+future picks.

If the pick is #2 or lower, such that we don't have to trade Rozier to make max room, you can sub him in for Zizic in the above.

Crowder makes $2 million less than AB this season, so it's probably not doable with him instead of Bradley in the #1 pick scenario.  In the #2-4 pick scenario, you can make it Crowder+Brown+Zizic+Rozier, but I think that's even more ridiculous than the other options.  You can also sub Smart in for Brown in most of the combinations, if you'd rather keep Jaylen.

Pretty much all of these lead to record tax bills, however, so I wouldn't count on any of them.

That's actually not quite as crazy as I was thinking. If we were able to land Griffin this summer, I'd really, really think hard about trading AB, Brown, Rozier, and future picks for Butler, depending upon the exact picks. Zizic would make things a bit less desirable, though.

But the record tax bills would be assuming that we'd keep both IT AND Smart next summer in this scenario, right? If we'd be lucky enough to nab Fultz, preferably with the 2nd pick, and he plays up to his potential, it might not be a guarantee that we retain both IT AND Smart in that scenario.

If he does play up to his potential, either he'd prove that he's ready to start and contribute in year two, letting us let IT walk for the max elsewhere, or (more likely) he'd show that he's capable and versatile enough to lead the bench unit until ready to start full-time, allowing us to let Smart take bigger money elsewhere.

If we assume a roster in 2018-2019 that looks like this:

Horford
Griffin (max)
IT (max)
George (max)
Crowder
Fultz (2nd pick)
Zizic
8 guys at the vet min

You get to $151 million salary, and a $70 million tax bill, which would be #2 all-time behind the Nets year where they literally burnt money.

Now if it's Butler instead of George, the tax bill drops to a less expensive number around ~$30 million, but it's still high.  It's also a 7-man roster, hoping that half of the player will make the minimum -- you're going to have to concede with quite a few guys on the fringes of the NBA on the team.  And in 2019-2020, you have a similar-sized tax bill regardless of whether it's Butler or George, since then they'd both make the max.  The bill over two years could certainly be the highest ever, unless Golden State exceeds it themselves in the coming seasons.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2017, 05:29:21 PM by saltlover »

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2017, 06:44:26 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29873
  • Tommy Points: 2944
  • On To Banner 18!
Smart, Brown Bradley etc in any combo plus the 2018 pick is too much....Rather see an IT for Butler as a starter

And how exactly does this improve this team if you're trading away easily our best player right now for Jimmy Butler?

It would be one thing if we already had another legit scorer on this team (and we don't).
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2017, 06:54:55 PM »

Offline colincb

  • NCE
  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5095
  • Tommy Points: 501
Smart, Brown Bradley etc in any combo plus the 2018 pick is too much....Rather see an IT for Butler as a starter

Cs need 2 scorers to contend. That's the whole point of getting Hayward, Butler, etc.

Otherwise, Butler being available is good. Just increases the options Danny has.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2017, 07:17:40 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8593
  • Tommy Points: 1389
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

I don't have anything to gain from this flattery, but in a group text with some college buddies in NY (Knicks fans), I shared this post to demonstrate how badass CsBlog posters are. 

About 1/3 of the way through the first video posted in "Jaylen Brown's Youtube,' he talks about how passionate and informative (i.e. 'they know everything about you') Celtics fans are.  We must be unique in this regard. 
The Tarstradamus Group, LLC

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2017, 07:29:23 PM »

Offline colincb

  • NCE
  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5095
  • Tommy Points: 501
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.


TP. By my reckoning we can get any UFA in the 7-9 year experience bucket without much pain (10+ years takes a lot of maneuvering) and then trading for another star player is more an issue of matching salaries (and picks). Down the road you soon hit the issue of luxury taxes and how much the owners are willing to pay. It's been my impression that they'd be willing to pay luxury tax, but likely not Mad Russian or Dan Gilbert level luxury taxes.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2017, 08:48:50 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

  • Larry Bird
  • *****************************
  • Posts: 29873
  • Tommy Points: 2944
  • On To Banner 18!
I think we are better off going after Fultz/Jackson + Hayward/Griffin.

Trading for either PG13 or Butler creates complications, and could really impact cap space going forward (having like 3-4 max guys on the team = massive luxury tax).

Also it would require giving up Bradley + Nets Pick, and possibly some more.

PG13 is an expiring, and is Butler THAT much better than Bradley? I don't think he's worth Bradley + Nets Pick + possibly any of Crowder/Brown/Smart
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2017, 09:03:53 PM »

Offline mahcus smaht

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 577
  • Tommy Points: 4
I think plan A has to be Griffin/Hayward +make the pick. Then you have to make a move somewhere to improve your bigs. That probably means parting with some good assets like Bradley Crowder or the Nets '18 pick. Especially if you get Hayward as opposed to Griffin.

Plan B is probably shelling out big time assets for Butler or George and then addressing the PF need through FA.

Plan C is make the pick and then throw money at an Otto Porter or a Jamychal Green.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2017, 09:37:11 PM »

Offline jpotter33

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48137
  • Tommy Points: 2922
I think we are better off going after Fultz/Jackson + Hayward/Griffin.

Trading for either PG13 or Butler creates complications, and could really impact cap space going forward (having like 3-4 max guys on the team = massive luxury tax).

Also it would require giving up Bradley + Nets Pick, and possibly some more.

PG13 is an expiring, and is Butler THAT much better than Bradley? I don't think he's worth Bradley + Nets Pick + possibly any of Crowder/Brown/Smart

Yes, by quite a bit. Bradley can barely dribble and chew gum at the same time, and that's not even getting into his passing.

But I mostly agree. I don't think it'd be worth it in most scenarios, especially if we get Fultz.

My question is this, though: who replaces Bradley in the starting lineup when we inevitably trade Bradley this summer? I guess it depends upon whether we land Hayward or not, but let's assume that we get Griffin instead. It has to be Brown, right? I guess you could say Fultz if we get him, but I'm not sure about that pairing defensively, along with if he'd be ready to start yet.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #27 on: March 31, 2017, 07:43:57 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2493
  • Tommy Points: 199
I think we are better off going after Fultz/Jackson + Hayward/Griffin.

Trading for either PG13 or Butler creates complications, and could really impact cap space going forward (having like 3-4 max guys on the team = massive luxury tax).

Also it would require giving up Bradley + Nets Pick, and possibly some more.

PG13 is an expiring, and is Butler THAT much better than Bradley? I don't think he's worth Bradley + Nets Pick + possibly any of Crowder/Brown/Smart

Yes, by quite a bit. Bradley can barely dribble and chew gum at the same time, and that's not even getting into his passing.

But I mostly agree. I don't think it'd be worth it in most scenarios, especially if we get Fultz.

My question is this, though: who replaces Bradley in the starting lineup when we inevitably trade Bradley this summer? I guess it depends upon whether we land Hayward or not, but let's assume that we get Griffin instead. It has to be Brown, right? I guess you could say Fultz if we get him, but I'm not sure about that pairing defensively, along with if he'd be ready to start yet.
Why are you trading Bradley this summer? By investing in a max FA aren't we fighting for a championship? I don't see us moving one of our better players in that scenario. We'd keep him for a title run and risk losing him the following summer

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #28 on: March 31, 2017, 08:47:45 AM »

Offline PAOBoston

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8098
  • Tommy Points: 533
When Wyc said 2 stars away, I see him meaning one guy via FA/trade and one guy from the draft.

I think they go hard after Griffin/Hayward in FA depending on what happens in draft (Do they drafta guard of forward?).

As for Butler, not sure what CHI would want as a realistic offer at this point and if it makes sense for Cs to give up

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #29 on: March 31, 2017, 01:36:07 PM »

Offline SuddenFame

  • Derrick White
  • Posts: 261
  • Tommy Points: 28
I think plan A has to be Griffin/Hayward +make the pick. Then you have to make a move somewhere to improve your bigs. That probably means parting with some good assets like Bradley Crowder or the Nets '18 pick. Especially if you get Hayward as opposed to Griffin.

Plan B is probably shelling out big time assets for Butler or George and then addressing the PF need through FA.

Plan C is make the pick and then throw money at an Otto Porter or a Jamychal Green.

Ainge isn't parting with any assets to get a big, in fact, he isn't planning on "getting" any big nor should he when he has Ante Zizic waiting to come over, which he is next season.
Makes absolutely no sense to be trading away high value draft picks and players to acquire a mediocre seven-foot journeyman when we have a young & hungry guy tearing up the Adriatic league and is ready to go.

Also, why in god's name would Danny Ainge give up "big time assets" for a one year rental of Paul George??  Is that what you really want him to do??  I'd send Isiah Thomas and let Indiana back up the Brinks truck for a guy who is five foot seven, but that's about all I'd send them....
« Last Edit: March 31, 2017, 01:42:38 PM by SuddenFame »