http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season
Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.
Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?
Firstly, post 8000!
Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats. The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with. Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space. If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space. Trade away Jackson, and we're #2. If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).
Say you sign Griffin with the max. Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st). If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier. You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.
But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent. If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.
But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do. Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018. Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018. The luxury tax is $125 million. The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million. If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.
But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.
Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018. Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.
Thanks, TP.
I figured it would have to be after the draft and we signed the draftee utilizing his salary, too. I was hoping we'd be able to do it with a similar amount of flexibility at the draft itself, since it seemingly would increase the chance of a good trade in our direction. I know we can always agree to a deal on draft night (or some prior time) and perform it later after the draftee has been signed (ala the Love deal), but that always involves some amount of risk.
But I agree with you on questioning whether or not it's the right thing to do, to an extent. The playoffs will ultimately (at least partly) determine what route we should take next, but other factors should be involved, too:
1) If we would happen to get bounced in the first round, or at least struggle in the first round and give very little resistance in the second round, then perhaps we're not as "close" as we once thought and keeping the pick would make more sense.
2) If both Indiana or Chicago would insist on Crowder being part of the deal instead of AB, it makes little sense to complete the trade, since it'd be really difficult to afford everyone in that scenario next year and beyond anyways.
3) The draft order and how the draft actually plays out will affect how it should go, too. I'm in love with Fultz, and if we have a chance to get him, either at the number one pick or him falling to two or three, then I don't think I can justify trading him.
So further question - some think we might be able to get one of George or Butler without giving up the Brooklyn pick this year. I seriously doubt that, because I don't think we could legitimately keep that out of the deal and still have a realistic shot at one of them. But could that even work financially without decimating our core, i.e. losing both AB AND Crowder, perhaps along with Smart, too? (Assuming we're keeping space for a free agent, that is. Obviously we could do it if we're not concerned about that.)
If you want to keep the Brooklyn pick, you have two "realistic" options (up to the reader to decide how realistic):
If the pick is #1, such that Rozier needs to be traded for max FA room, then it's AB+Brown+Zizic+future picks.
If the pick is #2 or lower, such that we don't have to trade Rozier to make max room, you can sub him in for Zizic in the above.
Crowder makes $2 million less than AB this season, so it's probably not doable with him instead of Bradley in the #1 pick scenario. In the #2-4 pick scenario, you can make it Crowder+Brown+Zizic+Rozier, but I think that's even more ridiculous than the other options. You can also sub Smart in for Brown in most of the combinations, if you'd rather keep Jaylen.
Pretty much all of these lead to record tax bills, however, so I wouldn't count on any of them.
That's actually not quite as crazy as I was thinking. If we were able to land Griffin this summer, I'd really, really think hard about trading AB, Brown, Rozier, and future picks for Butler, depending upon the exact picks. Zizic would make things a bit less desirable, though.
But the record tax bills would be assuming that we'd keep both IT AND Smart next summer in this scenario, right? If we'd be lucky enough to nab Fultz, preferably with the 2nd pick, and he plays up to his potential, it might not be a guarantee that we retain both IT AND Smart in that scenario.
If he does play up to his potential, either he'd prove that he's ready to start and contribute in year two, letting us let IT walk for the max elsewhere, or (more likely) he'd show that he's capable and versatile enough to lead the bench unit until ready to start full-time, allowing us to let Smart take bigger money elsewhere.