Author Topic: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.  (Read 5617 times)

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Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« on: March 30, 2017, 02:06:25 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2017, 02:15:55 PM »

Offline gift

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Good decisions made by Chicago at the draft last year and the deadline this year.  ;)

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2017, 02:18:13 PM »

Online hwangjini_1

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well, i dont know how many years each of these players have been in the league and that affects their hit on the cap.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

"0-6 year (25%) maximum, and up to the 7-9 year (30%) maximum"

If each of the three players you mention are 7+ years, then those three would tie up, theoretically, 90% of the cap. so, while it is possible, i suppose, that doesnt leave much for a supporting cast.
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Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2017, 02:28:05 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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Think I'd rather see Josh Jackson and Gordon Hayward here next season, than 2 years of Butler-or a year of PG13.
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Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2017, 02:30:54 PM »

Offline The One

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Be careful what you wish for...what if Cleveland had kept Wiggins instead of trading him for Love?

Maybe they have a better outlook.

If the Celtics get Butler..."As great as Butler is, he’s a low-efficiency scorer and has suffered a long list of nagging lower-body injuries. He will be a 29-year-old unrestricted free agent in 2019."

https://theringer.com/cleveland-cavaliers-kevin-love-andrew-wiggins-nba-trade-c39d8a560866

Fultz/Jackson and Hayward could be a better long term solution.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2017, 02:41:46 PM »

Online Moranis

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I don't see how Chicago would have any leverage to require the 2017 pick next summer (remember this would be after the draft).  I don't even think they would really have much pull to ask for Brown. 

I'd gladly do something like this (which is still solid enough value for Chicago)

Bradley, Smart, Rozier, BOS 18, and MEM 1st

for

Butler

I think that trade would make a great deal of sense for both teams.  If it took adding in Yabu or another future 1st I'd do that.  If they insisted on Brown, I might do that if you did a swap for Smart. 
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Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2017, 02:51:38 PM »

Offline saltlover

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2017, 03:00:05 PM by saltlover »

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2017, 02:52:06 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Be careful what you wish for...what if Cleveland had kept Wiggins instead of trading him for Love?

Maybe they have a better outlook.

If the Celtics get Butler..."As great as Butler is, he’s a low-efficiency scorer and has suffered a long list of nagging lower-body injuries. He will be a 29-year-old unrestricted free agent in 2019."

https://theringer.com/cleveland-cavaliers-kevin-love-andrew-wiggins-nba-trade-c39d8a560866

Fultz/Jackson and Hayward could be a better long term solution.
Butler has a TS% ot 58%, 56%, and 58% the last three years. That is not low efficiency. It's slightly above average. And we wouod have him during seasons when he is 28 and 29. That is just the beginning of his prime. And if we trade Bradley, aren't we also giving up a guy with a long list of injuries?

I would take Butler just the way he has been playing this year as I would expect that over the next two years:

23.5 PPG
6.2 RPG
5.5 APG
1.9 SPG
58.1 TS%
86.4 FT%
.226 WS/48
Excellent defense and ability to guard 3 positions
« Last Edit: March 30, 2017, 03:03:41 PM by nickagneta »

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2017, 02:55:39 PM »

Offline vgulab

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I don't see how Chicago would have any leverage to require the 2017 pick next summer (remember this would be after the draft).  I don't even think they would really have much pull to ask for Brown. 

I'd gladly do something like this (which is still solid enough value for Chicago)

Bradley, Smart, Rozier, BOS 18, and MEM 1st

for

Butler

I think that trade would make a great deal of sense for both teams.  If it took adding in Yabu or another future 1st I'd do that.  If they insisted on Brown, I might do that if you did a swap for Smart.

I agree. If Butler is traded to Boston, the 17 Nets pick won't be included

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2017, 03:19:49 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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We're not the only team that would want Butler if he goes on the market. 
I don't see how Chicago would have any leverage to require the 2017 pick next summer (remember this would be after the draft).  I don't even think they would really have much pull to ask for Brown. 

I'd gladly do something like this (which is still solid enough value for Chicago)

Bradley, Smart, Rozier, BOS 18, and MEM 1st

for

Butler

I think that trade would make a great deal of sense for both teams.  If it took adding in Yabu or another future 1st I'd do that.  If they insisted on Brown, I might do that if you did a swap for Smart. 
We're not the only team that would want Butler if he goes on the market.  I don't see us getting him without giving up a Nets pick. 

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2017, 03:25:25 PM »

Offline mef730

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

+1 for the post.

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Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2017, 03:57:04 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

Thanks, TP.

I figured it would have to be after the draft and we signed the draftee utilizing his salary, too. I was hoping we'd be able to do it with a similar amount of flexibility at the draft itself, since it seemingly would increase the chance of a good trade in our direction. I know we can always agree to a deal on draft night (or some prior time) and perform it later after the draftee has been signed (ala the Love deal), but that always involves some amount of risk.

But I agree with you on questioning whether or not it's the right thing to do, to an extent. The playoffs will ultimately (at least partly) determine what route we should take next, but other factors should be involved, too:

1) If we would happen to get bounced in the first round, or at least struggle in the first round and give very little resistance in the second round, then perhaps we're not as "close" as we once thought and keeping the pick would make more sense.

2) If both Indiana or Chicago would insist on Crowder being part of the deal instead of AB, it makes little sense to complete the trade, since it'd be really difficult to afford everyone in that scenario next year and beyond anyways.

3) The draft order and how the draft actually plays out will affect how it should go, too. I'm in love with Fultz, and if we have a chance to get him, either at the number one pick or him falling to two or three, then I don't think I can justify trading him.

So further question - some think we might be able to get one of George or Butler without giving up the Brooklyn pick this year. I seriously doubt that, because I don't think we could legitimately keep that out of the deal and still have a realistic shot at one of them. But could that even work financially without decimating our core, i.e. losing both AB AND Crowder, perhaps along with Smart, too? (Assuming we're keeping space for a free agent, that is. Obviously we could do it if we're not concerned about that.)

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2017, 04:00:54 PM »

Offline blackbird

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Be careful what you wish for...what if Cleveland had kept Wiggins instead of trading him for Love?

Maybe they have a better outlook.

If the Celtics get Butler..."As great as Butler is, he’s a low-efficiency scorer and has suffered a long list of nagging lower-body injuries. He will be a 29-year-old unrestricted free agent in 2019."

https://theringer.com/cleveland-cavaliers-kevin-love-andrew-wiggins-nba-trade-c39d8a560866

Fultz/Jackson and Hayward could be a better long term solution.
Butler has a TS% ot 58%, 56%, and 58% the last three years. That is not low efficiency. It's slightly above average. And we wouod have him during seasons when he is 28 and 29. That is just the beginning of his prime. And if we trade Bradley, aren't we also giving up a guy with a long list of injuries?

I would take Butler just the way he has been playing this year as I would expect that over the next two years:

23.5 PPG
6.2 RPG
5.5 APG
1.9 SPG
58.1 TS%
86.4 FT%
.226 WS/48
Excellent defense and ability to guard 3 positions

I was confused by that statement too. So I checked and Butler is currently ranked:

#38 in True Shooting Percentage (Isaiah Thomas is #7)
#36 in Assist to Turnover Ratio (Al Horford is #13)
#6 in Free Throw Attempts to Field Goal Attempts Ratio (Isaiah Thomas is #19)
#1 in Steals per Foul (Marcus Smart is #19)
#2 in Defensive Plays per Foul (Al Horford is #18)
#10 in Player Efficiency (Isaiah Thomas is #13)
#15 in Win Score (Isaiah Thomas is #35)
#8 in Game Score (Isaiah Thomas is #5)

I don't know what those last ones are but they are in the efficiency section! Bottom line, he is an elite player with all-around skills. Really hope we get him.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2017, 04:13:29 PM »

Offline saltlover

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2700867-jimmy-butler-rumored-to-be-as-good-as-gone-from-bulls-after-this-season

Good news for us. Not only does this give us extra options at the draft and/or this summer, it probably lowers the market value on Butler a bit from the absurd asking price they have.

Question for our resident cap experts: is there any realistic way to trade for one of Butler or George at the draft AND stil have room to sign someone like Griffin this offseason? Let's say that Danny keeps Crowder off the table - how close would it bring us if we traded AB, the 2017 Brooklyn pick, the Memphis pick, and some other filler like the rights to Zizic/Yab or Rozier? That brings us somewhat close after we drop Zeller, KO, and the other non-guaranteed contracts, right?

Firstly, post 8000!

Secondly, yes, it is possible, but there are caveats.  The first caveat is it really matters what pick we end up with.  Letting all free agents walk/releasing non-guaranteed players and getting a top 4 pick does not leave us with maximum cap space.  If Yab stays overseas (or is renounced), that gets us to the #3 pick and max cap space.  Trade away Jackson, and we're #2.  If it's #1, it takes even more effort (Rozier seems the best candidate for dumping in addition to the above).

Say you sign Griffin with the max.  Then you can trade Bradley and the Nets pick (if it's a top two pick) for Butler or George (after the 30-day waiting period is up, so expect to see the Brooklyn pick signed July 1st).  If the pick is #3 or #4, it's the same trade plus Rozier.  You can add any future picks into the deal you want, since they don't have a cap hit this year.

But you have to do it in that order, since that lets you take on more in incoming salary than outgoing salary, after the cap space has been used on the free agent.  If you do it backwards, and make the trade first, then you need at least as much guaranteed outgoing 2017 salary as incoming, because otherwise you won't have room for the free agent, or will have to make greater salary dumps.

But I'm also going to question if it's the right thing to do.  Say it's George you're acquiring -- presumably you're maxing both him and IT in 2018.  Horford, Griffin/Hayward, George and IT will make a combined $121.6 million in 2018.  The luxury tax is $125 million.  The tax bill would be huge -- even if it were only minimum salary guys filling out the roster it's be over $15 million, and with the actual roster that exists, it could be well over $50 million.  If it's Butler it's cheaper in 2018, but still not cheap, and well into luxury tax territory anyway.

But if ownership give Ainge a blank check for a few years, it would be possible to both acquire a max free agent and trade for Butler or George without giving up too much in the way of guys under contract.

Note: All figures assume the current cap and tax projections put it by the NBA of $102/$122 million in 2017, and $103/$125 million in 2018.  Different actual cap numbers produce different outcomes.

Thanks, TP.

I figured it would have to be after the draft and we signed the draftee utilizing his salary, too. I was hoping we'd be able to do it with a similar amount of flexibility at the draft itself, since it seemingly would increase the chance of a good trade in our direction. I know we can always agree to a deal on draft night (or some prior time) and perform it later after the draftee has been signed (ala the Love deal), but that always involves some amount of risk.

But I agree with you on questioning whether or not it's the right thing to do, to an extent. The playoffs will ultimately (at least partly) determine what route we should take next, but other factors should be involved, too:

1) If we would happen to get bounced in the first round, or at least struggle in the first round and give very little resistance in the second round, then perhaps we're not as "close" as we once thought and keeping the pick would make more sense.

2) If both Indiana or Chicago would insist on Crowder being part of the deal instead of AB, it makes little sense to complete the trade, since it'd be really difficult to afford everyone in that scenario next year and beyond anyways.

3) The draft order and how the draft actually plays out will affect how it should go, too. I'm in love with Fultz, and if we have a chance to get him, either at the number one pick or him falling to two or three, then I don't think I can justify trading him.

So further question - some think we might be able to get one of George or Butler without giving up the Brooklyn pick this year. I seriously doubt that, because I don't think we could legitimately keep that out of the deal and still have a realistic shot at one of them. But could that even work financially without decimating our core, i.e. losing both AB AND Crowder, perhaps along with Smart, too? (Assuming we're keeping space for a free agent, that is. Obviously we could do it if we're not concerned about that.)

If you want to keep the Brooklyn pick, you have two "realistic" options (up to the reader to decide how realistic):

If the pick is #1, such that Rozier needs to be traded for max FA room, then it's AB+Brown+Zizic+future picks.

If the pick is #2 or lower, such that we don't have to trade Rozier to make max room, you can sub him in for Zizic in the above.

Crowder makes $2 million less than AB this season, so it's probably not doable with him instead of Bradley in the #1 pick scenario.  In the #2-4 pick scenario, you can make it Crowder+Brown+Zizic+Rozier, but I think that's even more ridiculous than the other options.  You can also sub Smart in for Brown in most of the combinations, if you'd rather keep Jaylen.

Pretty much all of these lead to record tax bills, however, so I wouldn't count on any of them.

Re: Report: Butler is "as good as gone" this offseason.
« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2017, 04:21:43 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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Wyc gonna pony up the dough for all of this and a new Max for IT in a year--?
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