Author Topic: Who Do You Take At #5?  (Read 9063 times)

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Who Do You Take At #5?
« on: March 27, 2017, 02:18:16 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Flashback to 2007 -- Celts have great odds at a top pick, but end up with #5, out of range of the most exciting prospects.

Ah, good times, right?  Well, it worked out pretty well back then.

Anyway, this year it's very likely the worst that the Celts will do in the lottery is #4.  However, with the Nets playing well (they have nothing to lose for, after all) and the Lakers and Suns in a full-on tank, there is an outside chance with 10-11 games remaining that the Celts could end up picking at #5.


So ... to prepare us for that possibility, I ask -- who would you take at #5?

Assume for this exercise that the top 4 are as follows:

1-2: Fultz, Ball

3-4: Jackson, Tatum


Some of the names in the next grouping are:

- Malik Monk, Kentucky
- De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky
- Dennis Smith Jr., NC State
- Lauri Markkanen, Arizona
- Frank Ntilikina, somewhere abroad
- Jonathan Isaac, Florida State


Out of the box -- like, way out of the box:

- Justin Jackson
- Jarrett Allen
- John Collins
- T.J. Leaf
- Harry Giles


I have to say, I don't love any of these options; I'm not sure any of these guys would get much playing time next year.  The most likely suspects here are mostly pure guards who would slot behind IT, Bradley, Smart, and maybe Rozier or even Jackson.

My guess, if this pick ends up at #5, Ainge tries like heck to trade it for anybody who could contribute without ruining the cap sheet this summer.  Imagine, for example, Orlando offering Aaron Gordon for a chance to draft Fox or Monk.  Or perhaps he makes another run at Justise Winslow.

If there's no trade, I expect Ainge to take a swing.  Monk might be worth going after, seeing as he's a pure shooter who could play alongside any of our current guards.  Otherwise, I wouldn't be shocked to see one of the names from the second group I listed -- perhaps Harry Giles or one of the other underclassmen big men who put up big numbers in the NCAA this year.
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Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2017, 02:25:43 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Fox   4th

Isaac 5 th

I hope it's not possible to pick lower than 5 th

But I never trust the luck that f the Celtics getting any help like the Cavs

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2017, 02:30:58 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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This is such a great question and there is a possibility we could be in this situation come June. I haven't watched enough videos on these guys to make a final assumption. Still waiting for draftexpress to finalize their scouting videos.

However, the thing that worries me about Monk is his wingspan. Smith Jr. also lacks a wingspan. Isaac has the ideal body frame, but I'm not a fan of his. At best I think he can be Rishard Lewis. People keep pointing out it's the system he's playing in, but the team really needed someone to step up and Isaac never did. If he really did deserve the ball, trust me the coach would give it to him. He's not going to change his mentality. He seems like a soft player to me.

I would probably go with Smith JR. because he is the most ready now. He has the best handles out of the remaining players and he has elite athleticism. He should also be easier to filp because of his flashy play. I mean he's a pretty underrated player. He could be a potential 20 plus a game player.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2017, 02:34:30 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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FRANK NTILIKINA is also very intriguing to me. I have to watch him play more, but I really liked what I've seen from him thus far.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2017, 02:35:22 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Firstly, Fox is my #5.  I think he has John Wall upside.  While it'd be a letdown relative to the alternatives, he's still an elite prospect, and arguably could have been as high as #2 if it were last year.

Secondly, with all of Thomas, Smart, and Bradley eligible for free agency in 2018, drafting an elite but raw guard could pay dividends the following summer, so there's no need to worry about any kind of logjam (unless you're Terry Rozier, who gets pushed out of the rotation).

Finally, it makes no sense to me to suggest trading the 5th overall pick in this draft for a prospect who's only got 1-2 years left on his rookie deal, like Gordon and Winslow.  That would be a bad long-term move, unless you're getting someone who's already at or near stardom (and I don't think Jokic is available.)

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2017, 02:44:39 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Issac or Tatum. 

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2017, 02:49:17 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Finally, it makes no sense to me to suggest trading the 5th overall pick in this draft for a prospect who's only got 1-2 years left on his rookie deal, like Gordon and Winslow.  That would be a bad long-term move, unless you're getting someone who's already at or near stardom (and I don't think Jokic is available.)


My thinking on this is simple.

Instead of drafting another point guard who probably won't help the team next year, Ainge could try to trade the pick for a player who will help next year, plus some additional minor assets.

However, that guy would need to be somebody who will not kill the cap sheet this summer, thus compromising the team's ability to sign a major FA.  Therefore, the trade target would need to be somebody with a year or two left on their rookie deal.

Gordon and Winslow make sense as potential targets because Ainge liked them a lot at the time of the draft, and they have yet to really blow up with the teams that drafted them, for various reasons.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2017, 02:55:18 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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If it's top 4 (which it will be), keep the pick and draft accordingly. If for some reason it turns out to be fifth, I'd try to trade it.

I think we get the best odds and pick top 2.
CELTICS 2024

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2017, 02:59:17 PM »

Offline footey

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Fox or Monk. Probably Fox. Assuming top 4 taken.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2017, 03:03:13 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Ball might be available in the 5 th pick , he has dropped in the latest predictions , I'm not even sure Magic Johnson is a lock to draft him 1 or 2

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2017, 03:11:22 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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About 40 Percocet.

That would be a disaster.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2017, 03:11:40 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Finally, it makes no sense to me to suggest trading the 5th overall pick in this draft for a prospect who's only got 1-2 years left on his rookie deal, like Gordon and Winslow.  That would be a bad long-term move, unless you're getting someone who's already at or near stardom (and I don't think Jokic is available.)


My thinking on this is simple.

Instead of drafting another point guard who probably won't help the team next year, Ainge could try to trade the pick for a player who will help next year, plus some additional minor assets.

However, that guy would need to be somebody who will not kill the cap sheet this summer, thus compromising the team's ability to sign a major FA.  Therefore, the trade target would need to be somebody with a year or two left on their rookie deal.

Gordon and Winslow make sense as potential targets because Ainge liked them a lot at the time of the draft, and they have yet to really blow up with the teams that drafted them, for various reasons.

You don't trade #5 for that.  Gordon has one more year on his rookie deal -- if he gets a big offer are you going to pay him?  Not to mention he takes up about a million more in cap space this year than the #5 pick.  That actually compromises your ability to sign a max free agent.  Winslow is at least cheaper and has more time left on his deal, but he's a) coming off a significant injury and b) is shooting at Marcus Smart levels.  Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to have Winslow on the Celtics, but if you think that's a good deal straight up for pick #5, you've really confused yourself about the quality of this draft. There's isn't some cliff in quality after #4.

Also, one of the bright sides about getting #5 is that the cap math for signing a max player gets a ton easier if that's where we wind up.  It would simply require trading Jackson (really easy) releasing all the non-guaranteed deals, and renouncing all free agents.  If we get even #4, we'll have to do something more complicated.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2017, 03:13:14 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Package it with Delonte & Wally and send it to Seattle.


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Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2017, 03:15:43 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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I'm with you, Pho. I like someone like Monk if we keep the pick, but I'd be happy with trading the pick for Gordon, who I'm high on and think would be a perfect long-term fit at the quick 4 for us. I think we'd need to get back a bit more than just Gordon, though.

Then again, there's still the possibility that pick 5 could be packaged (either at the draft or later after free agency) with someone like Bradley and/or Crowder/Brown/Smart/etc. for a Butler or George type, especially if the top-4 don't want to trade the picks for them. I think George gets traded almost certainly this summer, and Butler isn't far behind. So at least one of those options could be available for a trade, and a that's probably the most preferable route at 5, though I'd wait until after free agency to make the trade to see if we can sign a Hayward or Griffin first.

Re: Who Do You Take At #5?
« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2017, 03:35:15 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Fox, I think he's clearly the BPA.  If I'm looking at the outside the box choices I think Allen has a very high ceiling (and very low floor).