We're 14-4 (78%) against our our 6 possible 1st round matchups (ATL, CHI, DET, IND, MIA, MIL), 24-7 (77%) with our starting 5 intact, and 38-18 (68%) since Deceember 1st (i.e., we've been playing at a contender level pace for a while and have improved). The only 1st round team that would worry me is MIA, but we're 4-0 against them, they have no one to guard IT, and we've got defenders that we can match up against their best players.
I'm worried about TOR and CLE and that's it. Barring injuries, if we lose to anyone else, it would be a major upset.