Author Topic: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why  (Read 4694 times)

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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2017, 11:51:21 AM »

Offline Ogaju

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TP to the OP for a well reasoned post. This finding was highlighted last night in the Wizards victory over the Cavs.

Bad defense, bad defense man, too weak for even Lebron to neutralize.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2017, 11:54:46 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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LeBron has played 40 minutes or so the last couple of games, so I'm not sure you can argue that they're coasting.  They're just not playing well.  It's not always easy to just turn it on come playoff time, I guess we'll just get to see if they can pull it off.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2017, 12:02:17 PM »

Offline Ogaju

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So in the past 10 years the only teams that have made the Finals are LeBron led teams, and in the past 20 years the only team to win the title was the previous year's champion.

Seems like a fairly decent argument for the Cavs being as strong a threat as any team outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency making the Finals as any team.

But LeBron is now a year older and the playoffs start early for him this year because he is in a fight just for the #1 seed.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2017, 12:17:54 PM »

Offline Moranis

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So in the past 10 years the only teams that have made the Finals are LeBron led teams, and in the past 20 years the only team to win the title was the previous year's champion.

Seems like a fairly decent argument for the Cavs being as strong a threat as any team outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency making the Finals as any team.

But LeBron is now a year older and the playoffs start early for him this year because he is in a fight just for the #1 seed.
Lebron has been to 6 straight Finals and was on the 1 seed only 2 of those times.  Being the 1 seed doesn't really matter at all to his teams.
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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2017, 01:03:40 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is
over stated moranis. the basic point is an interesting one, and worth discussing, even if we conclude differently from the OP.

clearly, the premise that being a top defensive team helps you to the finals seems to born out by the data. what we can add is that being a top defensive team does not automatically admit you to the finals. (since only 2 max of the top defensive teams can play in the finals, EIGHT top 10 defensive teams DO NOT make the finals.)

further, some non-top defensive teams make the finals, but they are a minority in the sample shown above.

the next step would be to look at what other data might shed more light on who reaches the finals. for example - teams with top defense AND superior +/-. (i made this up. dont debate it.  ;D )

this is an interesting thread in its approach, argument, and use of info. tp to the OP.
But that premise only works if the other top teams in the conference are top defensive teams.  The fact that the top 4 teams in the East are not in the top 10 defensively makes this a failed exercise, unless of course you think the Hawks are going to be in the Finals.  But that wasn't the thread premise.  That is why the thread was a complete and utter fail, it only focused on Cleveland and failed to look at the other top tier teams.
and yet, here we sit (well, i am assuming your dont blog and stand. ;) ) going back and forth about this topic, redefining and adding to the initial post.

sounds like a success to me. :)
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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2017, 01:16:38 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Lebron coasts on defense during the regular season. 

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2017, 01:22:34 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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So in the past 10 years the only teams that have made the Finals are LeBron led teams, and in the past 20 years the only team to win the title was the previous year's champion.

Seems like a fairly decent argument for the Cavs being as strong a threat as any team outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency making the Finals as any team.

But LeBron is now a year older and the playoffs start early for him this year because he is in a fight just for the #1 seed.

I highlighted the #1 reason that may prevent the Cavs from making the Finals this season.  That's really all anyone needs to know.

The Cavs are not a dramatically different team than they have been the past two seasons.  A bit less engaged during the regular season, possibly, but otherwise not much different.

The Cavs also made the Finals as recently as two seasons ago with a defense that was not top 10.  Miami did it the year before with LeBron at the helm.  It's a extremely poor conclusion to draw based on the data, which is very incomplete anyway.  None of the teams that have any chance of coming out of the East this season have a top 10 defense, yet one of them will.

A more logical, and reasoned conclusion from the data presented would be that it is almost guaranteed a team without a top 10 defense will make the Finals this season.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2017, 01:30:27 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is

This is both silly and factually incorrect. Toronto is 8th in defensive efficiency at 104.9, and Boston is literally .1 from being a top-10 defensive team (11th at 105.3). This is completely consistent with this argument, and we were as high as 9th just a couple of days ago, iirc.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2017, 01:50:46 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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So OP... Are you willing to bet TP's that the Cavs will most likely make the finals?  :angel:
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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2017, 01:56:16 PM »

Offline dwlefty13

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So OP... Are you willing to bet TP's that the Cavs will most likely make the finals?  :angel:

Sure, how's 3 tp's?
Let's Go Celtics!!

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #25 on: March 26, 2017, 02:07:41 PM »

Offline dwlefty13

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Can the Cavs make the finals? Absolutely! They have LeBron James and the refs to help them after all  ;). But in all seriousness the reason for the original post is to say that no team that ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency has made, let alone win, the NBA finals based on the 20 year data. The few teams that have made the finals with an defensive efficiency outside of the top 10 lost and the one exception that team happened to have two first bailot hall of famers and arguable the best coach of the modern era.

This judgement is based on the fact that the Cavs is built around their offensive ability to score at a high rate. Because their defensive is not reliable on a night to night basis, they most likely need to rely on their elite offense to win playoff games. Over the course of the 20 years of data, in my honest opinion, these teams bulit with an overreliance of offense is unlikely to make the finals. This is why I make this prediction.

I fully respect any opinion whether you agree or disagree with my original post. If you find the thread a total fail or ridiculous I would like to ask out of respect for you to share your reasoning why. Your reasoning why is valuable to the discussion however you interpreted to be useful or a waste of your time and can give more insight why the numbers are unjustifiable for this particular argument. Thank you.
Let's Go Celtics!!

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #26 on: March 26, 2017, 02:25:38 PM »

Offline Thruthelookingglass

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They have LeBron James and the refs to help them after all  ;)

Truth.  While I'm not as sure that the Cavs' chances at the Finals are so low, this is an interesting historical take.  Brings to mind those bruising Pistons and Knicks teams of yesteryear.  I've come to think of the playoffs as a second season where the rules have been changed to favor tough defense--except that "star calls" are still in full force.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #27 on: March 26, 2017, 02:53:38 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Can the Cavs make the finals? Absolutely! They have LeBron James and the refs to help them after all  ;). But in all seriousness the reason for the original post is to say that no team that ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency has made, let alone win, the NBA finals based on the 20 year data. The few teams that have made the finals with an defensive efficiency outside of the top 10 lost and the one exception that team happened to have two first bailot hall of famers and arguable the best coach of the modern era.

This judgement is based on the fact that the Cavs is built around their offensive ability to score at a high rate. Because their defensive is not reliable on a night to night basis, they most likely need to rely on their elite offense to win playoff games. Over the course of the 20 years of data, in my honest opinion, these teams bulit with an overreliance of offense is unlikely to make the finals. This is why I make this prediction.

I fully respect any opinion whether you agree or disagree with my original post. If you find the thread a total fail or ridiculous I would like to ask out of respect for you to share your reasoning why. Your reasoning why is valuable to the discussion however you interpreted to be useful or a waste of your time and can give more insight why the numbers are unjustifiable for this particular argument. Thank you.

I think matchups (and health) will ultimately determine whether they make it to the Finals or not.

They could get really unlucky and face a healthy Atlanta or Milwaukee team in the first round, a dangerous Toronto or Washington team in the second round, and an equally dangerous Boston team in the Conference Finals.

At the very least, they're not going to have the cakewalk that they've had the last two years in the East, and they're going to have to work to get to the Finals. What's even worse for them is the fact that what's killed them lately is their guard defense, which doesn't bode well for them given that they'll have to face two of Toronto, Washington, and Boston before the Finals, all of which have probably top-5 or so backcourts in the league.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #28 on: March 26, 2017, 02:56:56 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is

This is both silly and factually incorrect. Toronto is 8th in defensive efficiency at 104.9, and Boston is literally .1 from being a top-10 defensive team (11th at 105.3). This is completely consistent with this argument, and we were as high as 9th just a couple of days ago, iirc.
according to bball reference the Raptors are 11th at 107.9 opp points per possession.  Boston is tied for 13th at 108.3.  The Wizards are 18th at 108.6.  The Cavs are 22nd at 110.4.  The only 4 teams in the East in the top 10 are in order the Hawks, Heat, Pistons, and Hornets. 

The problem with the analysis is that it says teams not in the top 10 won't make the Finals, yet the top 4 teams in the East are not in the top 10, so unless the OP is going to go out on a limb and claim the Hawks, Heat, Pistons, or Hornets is making the Finals, then the entire premise of the thread is a fail. 
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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #29 on: March 26, 2017, 03:06:41 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is

This is both silly and factually incorrect. Toronto is 8th in defensive efficiency at 104.9, and Boston is literally .1 from being a top-10 defensive team (11th at 105.3). This is completely consistent with this argument, and we were as high as 9th just a couple of days ago, iirc.
according to bball reference the Raptors are 11th at 107.9 opp points per possession.  Boston is tied for 13th at 108.3.  The Wizards are 18th at 108.6.  The Cavs are 22nd at 110.4.  The only 4 teams in the East in the top 10 are in order the Hawks, Heat, Pistons, and Hornets. 

The problem with the analysis is that it says teams not in the top 10 won't make the Finals, yet the top 4 teams in the East are not in the top 10, so unless the OP is going to go out on a limb and claim the Hawks, Heat, Pistons, or Hornets is making the Finals, then the entire premise of the thread is a fail.

Pretty sure those numbers are way off, and I think bball reference is always a bit off in that regard.

Both ESPN and NBA.com have the same numbers with the Raptors at 8th at 104.9, Boston at 11 at 105.3, Washington at 18 at 106.1, and Cleveland at 22 at 108.1.

http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/defensiveEff

http://stats.nba.com/teams/defense/#!?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1