Author Topic: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why  (Read 4688 times)

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Offline dwlefty13

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One simple yet defining statistic that is backed up by 20 years of data - Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency is the essentially the amount of points an NBA team will allow per 100 possessions. According to my research on NBA.com, I looked at the past 20 years of defensive efficiency and found that the NBA Finals match up consists of two teams that were both in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. The following is the list of the finals matchup each year since 1996-97 as well as their defensive efficiency:

1996-97: Chicago Bulls (Champions) 4th vs Utah Jazz 11th
1997-98: Chicago Bulls (Champions) 3rd vs Utah Jazz 15th
1998-99: San Antonio Spurs (Champions) 1st vs NY Knicks 3rd
1999-00: LA Lakers (Champions) 1st vs Indiana Pacers 13th
2000-01: LA Lakers (Champions) 19th vs Philadelphia 76ers 3rd
2001-02: LA Lakers (Champions) 7th vs NJ Nets 2nd
2002-03: San Antonio Spurs (Champions) 3rd vs NJ Nets 1st
2003-04: Detroit Pistons (Champions) 2nd vs LA Lakers 8th
2004-05: San Antonio Spurs (Champions) 1st vs Detroit Pistons 3rd
2005-06: Miami Heat (Champions) 10th vs Dallas Mavericks 11th
2006-07: San Antonio Spurs (Champions) 2nd vs Cleveland Cavaliers 4th
2007-08: Boston Celtics (Champions) 1st vs LA Lakers 6th
2008-09: LA Lakers (Champions) 5th vs Orlando Magic 1st
2009-10: LA Lakers (Champions) 6th vs Boston Celtics 5th
2010-11: Dallas Mavericks (Champions) 7th vs Miami Heat 5th
2011-12: Miami Heat (Champions) 4th vs OKC Thunder 9th
2012-13: Miami Heat (Champions) 7th vs San Antonio Spurs 3rd
2013-14: San Antonio Spurs (Champions) 4th vs Miami Heat 11th
2014-15: Golden State Warriors (Champions) 1st vs Cleveland Cavaliers 20th
2015-16: Cleveland Cavaliers (Champions) 10th vs Golden State Warriors 4th

* Teams in bold represent teams that made it to the finals and their defensive efficiency was outside of the top 10.

Why is this important: In the last 20 years, only six NBA teams actually made the finals with a defensive efficiency outside of the top 10. Furthermore, only the 2000-2001 LA Lakers were victorious winning the NBA Finals with a regular season defensive efficiency outside the top ten (though, a team with Kobe and Shaq back in the day were a dominant duo in their prime, creating an outlier for purposes of this argument). Essentially, since the 2007-2008 season, only two teams made the finals with middle of the road defensive efficiency, both were LeBron James lead teams that ultimately flamed out in the finals. When comparing to the Cleveland Cavaliers this season, they are currently ranked in the bottom third in defensive efficiency (23rd) while their main threats, Toronto 8th and Boston 11th have far superior defensive teams.

When evaluating the Cavs roster, they lack guards who can consistently cover other teams best shooting or point guards. Kyrie and JR are at best below-average defenders, and KK does not add any defensive presence to their team. This is a tall order to overcome in a series playing Washington with John Wall and Bradley Beal, Toronto with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, or Boston with Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. Instead, the Cavs have to rely heavily on score, rather than defense, to win games in the playoffs. Yes, the Cavs have LeBron James, but at 32 years old already logging 40 minutes a night, it is hard to imagine he elevating his game another level for the playoffs and overcoming the defensive inefficiencies of this team to make a finals appearance, let along when it all.

Conclusion: Therefore, based on historical data and current season statistics, I guarantee the Cavs will NOT make the finals based on their inability to defend at an elite level and their over reliance on outscoring opponents to win games. Though I do not know which team will come out of the East (hopefully Celtics), I can assure that the Cavs do not have the talent this year offensively to make up a relatively poor defensive group.
Let's Go Celtics!!

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2017, 01:30:55 AM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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If the Cavs don't win the east, I will forfeit all my tommy points.

Raptors, Celtics, Wizards are not real threats. They're simply benefitting from the east being as weak as ever.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2017, 01:34:36 AM »

Offline Rhyso

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2017, 01:46:00 AM »

Offline CelticSooner

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If the Cavs don't win the east, I will forfeit all my tommy points.

Raptors, Celtics, Wizards are not real threats. They're simply benefitting from the east being as weak as ever.

If the East is so weak wouldn't the Cavs have a better record? They are clear favorites but they aren't going to sweep their way to the Finals this go around. They built their team around scoring with GS and their defense suffers because of it.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2017, 01:50:09 AM »

Offline dwlefty13

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.

I agree on the Cavs getting healthy and primed for a playoff run. If they make it to the finals, let alone win, in my opinion its because of their elite offense, which would have to overcome a relatively lackluster defense. It is certainly possible, recent history seems to point the odds are against them though.
Let's Go Celtics!!

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2017, 01:53:28 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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So in the past 10 years the only teams that have made the Finals are LeBron led teams, and in the past 20 years the only team to win the title was the previous year's champion.

Seems like a fairly decent argument for the Cavs being as strong a threat as any team outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency making the Finals as any team.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2017, 02:06:59 AM »

Offline dwlefty13

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So in the past 10 years the only teams that have made the Finals are LeBron led teams, and in the past 20 years the only team to win the title was the previous year's champion.

Seems like a fairly decent argument for the Cavs being as strong a threat as any team outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency making the Finals as any team.

Though I don't disagree with your statement the Cavs only have this strong change because of their offense. There ability to spread the floor and have Kyrie and LeBron create three point opportunities for JR, KK, Frye, Love, etc. Enables this possiblity to happen. This, along with the elite play of Kyrie and Lebron to create for themselves and others and score 30 at will will be the reason they did make the finals. It would NOT be because their defense suddenly picks up in the playoffs. They have to rely on their offensive output to head back to the finals. If the shots are not falling, the Cavs are in trouble since their defense is not good enough to be relied on to win games for them.
Let's Go Celtics!!

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2017, 02:10:53 AM »

Offline Clench123

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If the Cavs don't win the east, I will forfeit all my tommy points.

Raptors, Celtics, Wizards are not real threats. They're simply benefitting from the east being as weak as ever.

This ridiculous argument is a weak one and hasn't been true for couple years now.

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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2017, 05:55:11 AM »

Offline chambers

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Problem with this is that they've had Love and JR Smith out, who are two key starters for them. They are crucial to their success.

They are basically coasting right now. Lebron doesn't care about the regular season. He probably wants the #1 seed but he knows they'll be going away for 4 games of the finals anyway.

When you have the best player in the world on your team, you are favorites to make the finals in your conference, especially when your conference is this weak.

Also consider how good their defense was on Curry in the pick and roll last year. They man handled him. Will be tougher to beat GSW and they probably won't now with Durant, but they are huge favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference which is the topic here.

Cool stats though and good discussion. TP.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2017, 06:11:47 AM »

Offline kraidstar

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Cavs don't have a ton of athleticism right now. IMO a few too many vets and not enough young legs.

Love, Smith, Korver, D-will, Jefferson, Frye... none of those guys are particularly quick or physically intimidating.

And LeBron does look like he might have slowed down at least a little bit.

I think there are some concerns there in Cleveland, though I wouldn't hit the panic button just yet.

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2017, 08:57:44 AM »

Offline Moranis

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is
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Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2017, 09:10:22 AM »

Offline greg683x

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i stopped reading when I saw that the Cavs themselves busted this theory, year before last.
Greg

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2017, 09:44:46 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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guarantee, OP?  How?

Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2017, 11:15:21 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is
over stated moranis. the basic point is an interesting one, and worth discussing, even if we conclude differently from the OP.

clearly, the premise that being a top defensive team helps you to the finals seems to born out by the data. what we can add is that being a top defensive team does not automatically admit you to the finals. (since only 2 max of the top defensive teams can play in the finals, EIGHT top 10 defensive teams DO NOT make the finals.)

further, some non-top defensive teams make the finals, but they are a minority in the sample shown above.

the next step would be to look at what other data might shed more light on who reaches the finals. for example - teams with top defense AND superior +/-. (i made this up. dont debate it.  ;D )

this is an interesting thread in its approach, argument, and use of info. tp to the OP.
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Re: The Cleveland Cavaliers will NOT make the NBA Finals. Here's why
« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2017, 11:31:39 AM »

Offline Moranis

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The only teams in the East in the top 10 of defensive ratings are the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets. Can we assume then that only one of these teams will make the finals? The Cavs have the 3rd best offense in the league and they didnt have Love, Korver, and Smith for large parts of the season. They are ridiculously stacked and getting healthy at the right time of the year imo.
This shows what a complete and utter fail this thread is
over stated moranis. the basic point is an interesting one, and worth discussing, even if we conclude differently from the OP.

clearly, the premise that being a top defensive team helps you to the finals seems to born out by the data. what we can add is that being a top defensive team does not automatically admit you to the finals. (since only 2 max of the top defensive teams can play in the finals, EIGHT top 10 defensive teams DO NOT make the finals.)

further, some non-top defensive teams make the finals, but they are a minority in the sample shown above.

the next step would be to look at what other data might shed more light on who reaches the finals. for example - teams with top defense AND superior +/-. (i made this up. dont debate it.  ;D )

this is an interesting thread in its approach, argument, and use of info. tp to the OP.
But that premise only works if the other top teams in the conference are top defensive teams.  The fact that the top 4 teams in the East are not in the top 10 defensively makes this a failed exercise, unless of course you think the Hawks are going to be in the Finals.  But that wasn't the thread premise.  That is why the thread was a complete and utter fail, it only focused on Cleveland and failed to look at the other top tier teams. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip