Cleveland wins because the refs let Lebron travel and commit offensive fouls.
Lebron once went FIVE GAMES without being called for a foul.
This, to me, is the issue that too many people are overlooking. IMO, LeBron's teams (not just him individually, but everyone on his team, home or away, both in Cleveland and Miami) have been coddled by the refs much more so than I've ever seen in NBA history, and it's been that way since his rookie year. Just being better than his team isn't anywhere close to good enough to beat them in the playoffs. In '08, we were much, much better than the Cavs, and still almost lost the series because the officiating was that one-sided. The officiating was horrible in 2010 as well, but we were once again good enough to overcome it.
I honestly don't think we'd win a seven game series against the Cavs this year even with fair officiating, as I don't think we have an answer for them inside and on the boards. I think that mythical series would go 6 or 7 games. But that's a moot point, because there's no way we'll have a fairly officiated series against the Cavs. Our time is coming where we'll be good enough once again to overcome that, but I don't think it's this year. Assuming full health for both teams, I think Cleveland wins in 5. All five games may be nailbiters, but the Cavs are too good when the you have to beat them 5-on-8 in late-game situations. Much more so than any other sport, the officiating in the NBA is extremely crooked, and no one in the media has the balls to call them out on it.