Author Topic: DeAndre Ayton thread  (Read 13553 times)

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Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #90 on: January 05, 2018, 09:23:58 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #91 on: January 13, 2018, 02:30:42 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Ayton on ESPN2 now.

Saw most of the earlier Duke game, Bagley looked like he'd fit in very well next to Horford.
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Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #92 on: January 13, 2018, 02:32:51 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I also agree with bagleys fit next to horford. I can an see the switches working on defense working nicely between them, bagley helping nicely on perimeter. Offense they compliment each other too

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #93 on: January 13, 2018, 05:46:49 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I'd go Ayton over Bagley but to get either one would be great. I think Bagley fits the team identify more but Ayton seems to just have higher upside. I don't know what I like more the fact Ayton stays at home and picks his spots or Bagley staying active most the game. Work outs and interviews are going to mean a lot for who gets picked first. One thing I noticed is that wings and guards still effect the game so much compared to the bigs. It's like bigs react while guards and wings act. Even when looking at these great prospects the game has changed so much.
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #94 on: January 30, 2018, 06:09:03 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Here is an article on Ayton from Cleaning the glass.
I subscribed to it and wanted to share it. Between paragraphs, there were video clips.

Deandre Ayton, another player discussed as a potential #1 overall selection, is a great counterpoint to Doncic. While Doncic excels because of basketball intellect despite some athletic limitations, Ayton dominates with his body ó but does not yet have the basketball mind to match.

Ayton checks basically every box from a physical standpoint: already, at the age of 19, he has the size and strength of an NBA center, with nimble feet, lateral quickness for his size, and easy lift off the floor. That combination, along with touch nice touch both around the rim and on midrange jumpers, gives him a ceiling as high as anyone. Itís not hard to imagine him as a dominant, two-way presence.

And yet thereís something missing. Ayton seems to lack an instinct for the game, that vague yet still tangible quality that scouts describe as ďfeelĒ.

ďYou canít teach height.Ē

Itís an old scouting maxim, often used to justify drafting raw, unpolished big men. No matter how unskilled they are, the thinking goes, itís at least possible to teach a 7-footer how to play the game ó but thereís no chance of turning a 6-foot guard into a 7-footer. Like most aphorisms, it oversimplifies, but also contains an important truth: some characteristics of players are more easily changed than others.

Scouting is about both observation (what is the player like right now) and projection (what will the player be like in the future). To take the step from observation to projection, a scout has to have a sense of what about the player can change, and what canít. Thatís where ďyou canít teach heightĒ can guide us to a helpful framework for evaluating players.

Imagine arranging all a playerís qualities on a spectrum: on one side are the ones that are least likely to change, like height. On the other end are those that are easiest to change, like experience (itís just a matter of playing time). We can take everything else about a player ó shooting, conditioning, shot blocking, weak side defensive recognition, handle, lateral quickness, et al. ó and try to put them somewhere in between. Where we put each characteristic tells us how much to value it when we scout.

For example, if we think one of the easiest things to change about a player is adding muscle and strength to a young, skinny player, we might look the other way when we see a skilled beanpole get bullied. But we might be more concerned if that prospect consistently misses open teammates.


Creating this kind of scouting spectrum isnít easy, and often causes significant disagreements when discussed. Itís also hard to verify statistically, since, while some of these characteristics can be measured, many are much harder to track. But this spectrum tells us a lot about how we project players, and itís important to think about when we discuss Deandre Ayton.

Because when we look at the things that are difficult, if not impossible, to change, Ayton is off the charts. His turnover rate so far has been extremely low for a big man, a testament to his footwork and hands. His defensive rebounding rate has also been outstanding, ranking 12th in the country despite often sharing the court with another big man, and comparing very favorably to other big men in the history of the draft. He has made 67% of his 203 shots in two-point range so far this season, largely because of almost unstoppable finishing: he has converted 76% of his attempts around the basket that werenít post ups, according to Synergy Sports.

You canít teach that. You canít take Nikola Jokic and teach him to move and jump like Ayton.

Usually, thatís where the analysis stops. But itís important to note: you also canít teach Ayton to see and think the game like Jokic. Ayton will surely get better, but he can be pretty confident in saying he will never get all of the way to one of the most instinctive players in the game. But just how much Aytonís basketball instinct can improve will be the determining factor in just what type of player Ayton becomes.

Because thatís where we see some real deficiencies. There are multiple aspects of Aytonís game that make it seem like he doesnít really know why heís doing what heís doing. Like an improv actor that doesnít know how to play along with their fellow actors, heís not reading others and reacting as much as following a script in his head.

A great example of this is his screening. In the games Iíve watched, Ayton did not seem to be able to effectively screen defenders. He whiffed on almost every screen he set, rarely making contact or re-routing defenders. And he often seemed like he was just going through the motions:

Thatís alarming not only because of what it means for his effectiveness now, but for what it indicates about his ability to pick up and execute on core basketball skills.

His assist rate is decent for his position and usage, and yet watching his assists suggests that he is far from an intuitive passer. Ayton has done a solid job locating open shooters when double teamed, and has the size and strength to whip passes over top of the defense. His hand-eye coordination is evident here as well, since he frequently places these bullets right on target:

But in watching all of his assists, you donít see much, if anything, that shows an anticipation of the defense. No drawing the defense and dropping off. No quick passes ahead of a rotation. No slick passes to cutters.
You will, however, see him missing open teammates, telegraphing passes, and some curious decisions

That last clip wasnít the only time I saw Ayton pass up what was likely to be a layup or dunk to shovel to a teammate in worse position. Thatís not necessarily bad, but it supports the idea that heís not reading the game as much as he is just reacting in the moment.

Ayton shows this same pattern on the defensive end as well. He moves his feet very well for his size, able to slide and chop his steps like a wing player. And, as expected playing for one of the NCAAís better defensive coaches, Sean Miller, he executes important off ball concepts. For example, watch him recognize his help responsibility and tag or get below the roller:

But, there are lots of little things that show the same lack of basketball intuition, a theory supported by very poor block and steal rates for a top tier big man prospect. He occasionally seems to get sucked into watching the ball and just space out:
He doesnít seem to have an instinct to take a step toward help when the ball is being driven:
This play against Alabama combines much of what weíve seen. Ayton tags the roller, but then is intent on recovering back to his man, so he doesnít step up in help when the ball is being driven at him. And he loses sight of his man, so he gets back cut and his man ends up getting an offensive rebound:
Even when he is in help position, his timing is quite worrisome. He is easily pump faked into the air or commits early, which is often a sign of not being quick enough to go get the ball once a player goes into the actual shooting motion:

These things are, in theory, learnable. We know Ayton will get better at some of this ó thatís what happens with experience and professional coaching. But what if basketball instinct is harder to learn than we think? What if Ayton is so far behind the curve that it will take a while for him to catch up? How do you teach someone how to time blocks properly? How to give second efforts? What does it say that he hasnít really gotten it yet?

Thatís the downside for Ayton: a player who has all the physical tools but lacks the feel to put it all together in a way that drives winning. That doesnít mean heíd end up a bad player. Ayton could be a beast on the glass, a threat as a roller, someone who puts up numbers and maybe even makes an All-Star team ó but not someone who is a true difference maker, who carries a team, who feels like a great pick at #1 overall.

On the other hand, if he gets it? Watch out. Ayton has good midrange touch already, and with work could potentially grow that range behind the NBA three point line. In addition to his other tools, he might be Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan ó but without the free throw problems and the ability to hit a three.

So as the season continues, as teams dig into Aytonís background, talk to former coaches, bring him in for workouts and get to know him, thatís what theyíll be looking for. Is Ayton improving as he gets more coaching and experience? What is he like as a person, as an intellect, that might give a sense of whether heíll be a quick learner or a slow one? And ultimately, what is the value of a player with this kind of ability, but without high-level feel?
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Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #95 on: January 31, 2018, 09:05:27 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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Another spot on link.  Watching the growth of these top players tells me a lot about who they might become.

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #96 on: March 10, 2018, 09:57:26 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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This guy has completely dominated in games
32pts/14rb

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E9nfdUeftEk



Thereís people on this forum who have followed him for years. He continues to improve and become the player everyone thinks he can be,
« Last Edit: March 10, 2018, 10:06:14 PM by CelticsElite »

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #97 on: March 10, 2018, 10:29:45 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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It's going to be tough for a team to pick Doncic over Ayton, in my opinion. The Spanish league is supposed to be more legit than the NCAA, but Ayton's size/skill can add him to the group of young talented big men in the NBA. The Celtics (and any other team) would love a guy like him.

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #98 on: March 11, 2018, 09:59:16 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
The Spanish league is supposed to be more legit than the NCAA

Which has produced more NBA stars, that ought to remove the supposed, right away to not.  Heck, I could be generous and pick a conference like the ACC and they would still have more stars.  That being said, Europeans have been improving and can play at a high level in the NBA.   

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #99 on: March 11, 2018, 10:39:49 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Quote
The Spanish league is supposed to be more legit than the NCAA

Which has produced more NBA stars, that ought to remove the supposed, right away to not.  Heck, I could be generous and pick a conference like the ACC and they would still have more stars.  That being said, Europeans have been improving and can play at a high level in the NBA.
It's apples and oranges to compare the two in regards to producing stars. But the Spanish league's top four teams would wipe the floor against a NCAA all star team. That league is far better than the NCAA. NCAA is all youth that hasn't even developed yet. Guys that are good in the NCAA end up in the NBA or overseas leagues how on earth would NCAA be considered better competition wise?
« Last Edit: March 11, 2018, 10:46:40 AM by Csfan1984 »
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #100 on: March 11, 2018, 12:06:12 PM »

Offline td450

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Here is an article on Ayton from Cleaning the glass.
I subscribed to it and wanted to share it. Between paragraphs, there were video clips.

Deandre Ayton, another player discussed as a potential #1 overall selection, is a great counterpoint to Doncic. While Doncic excels because of basketball intellect despite some athletic limitations, Ayton dominates with his body ó but does not yet have the basketball mind to match.

Ayton checks basically every box from a physical standpoint: already, at the age of 19, he has the size and strength of an NBA center, with nimble feet, lateral quickness for his size, and easy lift off the floor. That combination, along with touch nice touch both around the rim and on midrange jumpers, gives him a ceiling as high as anyone. Itís not hard to imagine him as a dominant, two-way presence.

And yet thereís something missing. Ayton seems to lack an instinct for the game, that vague yet still tangible quality that scouts describe as ďfeelĒ.

ďYou canít teach height.Ē

Itís an old scouting maxim, often used to justify drafting raw, unpolished big men. No matter how unskilled they are, the thinking goes, itís at least possible to teach a 7-footer how to play the game ó but thereís no chance of turning a 6-foot guard into a 7-footer. Like most aphorisms, it oversimplifies, but also contains an important truth: some characteristics of players are more easily changed than others.

Scouting is about both observation (what is the player like right now) and projection (what will the player be like in the future). To take the step from observation to projection, a scout has to have a sense of what about the player can change, and what canít. Thatís where ďyou canít teach heightĒ can guide us to a helpful framework for evaluating players.

Imagine arranging all a playerís qualities on a spectrum: on one side are the ones that are least likely to change, like height. On the other end are those that are easiest to change, like experience (itís just a matter of playing time). We can take everything else about a player ó shooting, conditioning, shot blocking, weak side defensive recognition, handle, lateral quickness, et al. ó and try to put them somewhere in between. Where we put each characteristic tells us how much to value it when we scout.

For example, if we think one of the easiest things to change about a player is adding muscle and strength to a young, skinny player, we might look the other way when we see a skilled beanpole get bullied. But we might be more concerned if that prospect consistently misses open teammates.


Creating this kind of scouting spectrum isnít easy, and often causes significant disagreements when discussed. Itís also hard to verify statistically, since, while some of these characteristics can be measured, many are much harder to track. But this spectrum tells us a lot about how we project players, and itís important to think about when we discuss Deandre Ayton.

Because when we look at the things that are difficult, if not impossible, to change, Ayton is off the charts. His turnover rate so far has been extremely low for a big man, a testament to his footwork and hands. His defensive rebounding rate has also been outstanding, ranking 12th in the country despite often sharing the court with another big man, and comparing very favorably to other big men in the history of the draft. He has made 67% of his 203 shots in two-point range so far this season, largely because of almost unstoppable finishing: he has converted 76% of his attempts around the basket that werenít post ups, according to Synergy Sports.

You canít teach that. You canít take Nikola Jokic and teach him to move and jump like Ayton.

Usually, thatís where the analysis stops. But itís important to note: you also canít teach Ayton to see and think the game like Jokic. Ayton will surely get better, but he can be pretty confident in saying he will never get all of the way to one of the most instinctive players in the game. But just how much Aytonís basketball instinct can improve will be the determining factor in just what type of player Ayton becomes.

Because thatís where we see some real deficiencies. There are multiple aspects of Aytonís game that make it seem like he doesnít really know why heís doing what heís doing. Like an improv actor that doesnít know how to play along with their fellow actors, heís not reading others and reacting as much as following a script in his head.

A great example of this is his screening. In the games Iíve watched, Ayton did not seem to be able to effectively screen defenders. He whiffed on almost every screen he set, rarely making contact or re-routing defenders. And he often seemed like he was just going through the motions:

Thatís alarming not only because of what it means for his effectiveness now, but for what it indicates about his ability to pick up and execute on core basketball skills.

His assist rate is decent for his position and usage, and yet watching his assists suggests that he is far from an intuitive passer. Ayton has done a solid job locating open shooters when double teamed, and has the size and strength to whip passes over top of the defense. His hand-eye coordination is evident here as well, since he frequently places these bullets right on target:

But in watching all of his assists, you donít see much, if anything, that shows an anticipation of the defense. No drawing the defense and dropping off. No quick passes ahead of a rotation. No slick passes to cutters.
You will, however, see him missing open teammates, telegraphing passes, and some curious decisions

That last clip wasnít the only time I saw Ayton pass up what was likely to be a layup or dunk to shovel to a teammate in worse position. Thatís not necessarily bad, but it supports the idea that heís not reading the game as much as he is just reacting in the moment.

Ayton shows this same pattern on the defensive end as well. He moves his feet very well for his size, able to slide and chop his steps like a wing player. And, as expected playing for one of the NCAAís better defensive coaches, Sean Miller, he executes important off ball concepts. For example, watch him recognize his help responsibility and tag or get below the roller:

But, there are lots of little things that show the same lack of basketball intuition, a theory supported by very poor block and steal rates for a top tier big man prospect. He occasionally seems to get sucked into watching the ball and just space out:
He doesnít seem to have an instinct to take a step toward help when the ball is being driven:
This play against Alabama combines much of what weíve seen. Ayton tags the roller, but then is intent on recovering back to his man, so he doesnít step up in help when the ball is being driven at him. And he loses sight of his man, so he gets back cut and his man ends up getting an offensive rebound:
Even when he is in help position, his timing is quite worrisome. He is easily pump faked into the air or commits early, which is often a sign of not being quick enough to go get the ball once a player goes into the actual shooting motion:

These things are, in theory, learnable. We know Ayton will get better at some of this ó thatís what happens with experience and professional coaching. But what if basketball instinct is harder to learn than we think? What if Ayton is so far behind the curve that it will take a while for him to catch up? How do you teach someone how to time blocks properly? How to give second efforts? What does it say that he hasnít really gotten it yet?

Thatís the downside for Ayton: a player who has all the physical tools but lacks the feel to put it all together in a way that drives winning. That doesnít mean heíd end up a bad player. Ayton could be a beast on the glass, a threat as a roller, someone who puts up numbers and maybe even makes an All-Star team ó but not someone who is a true difference maker, who carries a team, who feels like a great pick at #1 overall.

On the other hand, if he gets it? Watch out. Ayton has good midrange touch already, and with work could potentially grow that range behind the NBA three point line. In addition to his other tools, he might be Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan ó but without the free throw problems and the ability to hit a three.

So as the season continues, as teams dig into Aytonís background, talk to former coaches, bring him in for workouts and get to know him, thatís what theyíll be looking for. Is Ayton improving as he gets more coaching and experience? What is he like as a person, as an intellect, that might give a sense of whether heíll be a quick learner or a slow one? And ultimately, what is the value of a player with this kind of ability, but without high-level feel?

You make some good points, but many of these observations are really on the Arizona team as a whole. For example, there clearly are some skills associated with setting good picks, but almost all of the responsibility for the pick's contact is on the ball handler. Getting good passing out of double teams is just as much about spacing and movement of your offensive teammates as it is the skill of the passer.

I've only seen him play 4 or 5 times, but he looked like he had the potential to be an all NBA player. College ball is tougher on big men. You don't see the same spacing you see in the NBA. I saw a guy who consistently was able to find opportunities inside even though most teams pack the lane against him.

He might just end up being pretty good, but I doubt it. My guess is he'll be a cornerstone in the NBA.


Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #101 on: June 20, 2018, 12:58:17 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Per Adam Himmelsbach:

Quote
Likely No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton on what he would consider a success in the NBA: ďDefinitely getting to that second contract. Thatís my success.Ē

So his goal is to not be Anthony Bennett, which is okay, but I think Iíd want a little more ambition from my #1 overall pick.  Or desire for team success.  Just not what he said.
ďWhen an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.Ē

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #102 on: June 20, 2018, 01:05:51 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Per Adam Himmelsbach:

Quote
Likely No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton on what he would consider a success in the NBA: ďDefinitely getting to that second contract. Thatís my success.Ē

So his goal is to not be Anthony Bennett, which is okay, but I think Iíd want a little more ambition from my #1 overall pick.  Or desire for team success.  Just not what he said.

That's a terrible answer. Hopefully it was made as a joke by an immature 19 year old.

Is that a reference to wanting to get paid? Is that fear of busting? What is that?

Seriously, Michael Olowakandi 2.0

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #103 on: June 20, 2018, 01:13:03 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Per Adam Himmelsbach:

Quote
Likely No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton on what he would consider a success in the NBA: ďDefinitely getting to that second contract. Thatís my success.Ē

So his goal is to not be Anthony Bennett, which is okay, but I think Iíd want a little more ambition from my #1 overall pick.  Or desire for team success.  Just not what he said.

That's a terrible answer. Hopefully it was made as a joke by an immature 19 year old.

Is that a reference to wanting to get paid? Is that fear of busting? What is that?

Seriously, Michael Olowakandi 2.0

Assuming he doesnít seriously screw up, heís already getting $40 million over four years.  I guess we should take it as a positive that he didnít say ďgetting my Year 4 option picked upĒ.
ďWhen an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.Ē

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: DeAndre Ayton thread
« Reply #104 on: June 20, 2018, 07:05:46 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Per Adam Himmelsbach:

Quote
Likely No. 1 pick Deandre Ayton on what he would consider a success in the NBA: ďDefinitely getting to that second contract. Thatís my success.Ē

So his goal is to not be Anthony Bennett, which is okay, but I think Iíd want a little more ambition from my #1 overall pick.  Or desire for team success.  Just not what he said.

I don't disagree but this reminded me of that interview Fultz did with Tracy McGrady this time last year where McGrady asked him what Fultz wanted to accomplish in his first season and he was like, "I want to be MVP and Rookie of the Year."

So I don't know how much I care about this.
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