Author Topic: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...  (Read 1716 times)

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The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« on: March 19, 2017, 10:57:34 PM »

Online CelticD

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...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I figured it was primarily due to the idea that if Smart wasn't looking for his shot, then it was because he was facilitating more, but in those 40 games where he attempted 10 or less field goals, he averaged 4.4 assists, which is his season average.

He's averaging less than 8 FGA in those games as well, so it's interesting to entertain the idea that Smart could contribute even more to the team if he just shot less.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&is_playoffs=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=fga&c1comp=lt&c1val=10&order_by=pts&player_id=smartma01

Edit: I can't get the hyperlink to work. Sorry for pasting this long link.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 11:01:37 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 11:23:51 PM »

Online KG Living Legend

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A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.



 It's also a good example. 40 games that's significant. It tells me that he should be careful with his shots.
 Take those post up shots and be selective with the three's.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 11:24:24 PM »

Online KG Living Legend

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A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.



 It's also a good example. 40 games that's significant. It tells me that he should be careful with his shots.
 Take those post up shots and be selective with the three's.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 11:49:09 PM »

Online CelticD

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A lot of this is because when our best players dont play Marcus has to shoot more.

Yep that's a good point. Although out of those 40 games, 19 of those were played without one of AH, AB, or IT. I didn't get a chance to look at the W-L for those 19 games, but to your point I imagine most of those 10 losses will be attributed to games where one of those starters are missing.

Still, Smart's shooting is so poor, the defense would've done it's job if a Celtics possession ends with a Marcus Smart FGA.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2017, 11:50:12 PM »

Offline playdream

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If he is afraid to take shots he is forever a role player
I want him to keep shooting while learning how to make them

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2017, 12:37:18 AM »

Offline feckless

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If he is afraid to take shots he is forever a role player
I want him to keep shooting while learning how to make them

Marcus's shot selection is frequently bad to terrible--you do not learn how to make stupid shots -- you learn how to find good ones and move the ball when you don't have a shot.

These numbers make it pretty obvious that Marcus is not who we want shooting a lot, at this stage of his career.

And yes it seems obvious that until Marcus can discern a good shot from a bad one he will contribute more when he shoots less.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 12:42:39 AM by feckless »
Days up and down they come, like rain on a conga drum, forget most, remember some, don't turn none away.   Townes Van Zandt

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2017, 12:41:15 AM »

Online rocknrollforyoursoul

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One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.
"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

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Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2017, 12:45:02 AM »

Offline feckless

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One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.
Days up and down they come, like rain on a conga drum, forget most, remember some, don't turn none away.   Townes Van Zandt

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2017, 12:54:22 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.
Turner existed just fine on 1 3pa per game.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2017, 12:58:54 AM »

Online rocknrollforyoursoul

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One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.

I didn't see today's game, so I can't speak specifically to his performance today, but it seems like (in theory, at least) any of Brad's players could take as many or as few shots as they'd like, and he'd be fine with it. As far as I know, he never discouraged Sully despite bad shooting, and he's never discouraged Smart. But I'm with you in that I don't think Smart should be shooting nearly as much as he does.
"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

"You don't have a soul. You are a Soul. You have a body."

C.S. Lewis


Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2017, 01:13:14 AM »

Offline feckless

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One drawback of the Brad Stevens offense is that whoever's open is supposed to shoot, but that only works consistently if everyone's a good shooter.

I do not believe Brad's offense calls for Marcus to take half the shots he took tonight or most nights.

I didn't see today's game, so I can't speak specifically to his performance today, but it seems like (in theory, at least) any of Brad's players could take as many or as few shots as they'd like, and he'd be fine with it. As far as I know, he never discouraged Sully despite bad shooting, and he's never discouraged Smart. But I'm with you in that I don't think Smart should be shooting nearly as much as he does.

In general I agree Brad is very tolerant but tonight he clearly yanked Kelly immediately after an atrocious shot.   

What bothers me most about Marcus is this year he seems to be making a decent percentage when he takes good shots but he really does not get what is a good shot and what is not --or his desire to be the hero blocks his ability to figure out shot selection.  I still have hope he will continue to grow into making better choices.  I do believe he is much better than last year.
Days up and down they come, like rain on a conga drum, forget most, remember some, don't turn none away.   Townes Van Zandt

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2017, 06:35:38 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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It's not about decision-making, mostly.  It's that there are a smaller number of "good" shots in Marcus' repertoire versus good offensive players.  And NBA defenses are likely squeezing Marcus into taking more shots than he wants to (like the way they used to do Rondo).

That is why it is important a lead guard to be a good offensive player even if he doesn't take a lot of shots.  In the long run, NBA defenses will force you to your weaknesses.  For Marcus, that will mean taking away many of his passing options. 

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2017, 06:48:49 PM »

Online mctyson

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...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I could break down the Celtics record on probably 100 different data points with cutoffs like this and get this same results.

This is a meaningless conclusion.

Re: The Celtics are 30-10 in Games Where Marcus Smart...
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2017, 06:56:57 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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...attempts 10 or less field goals. Conversely the C's are 18-16 when he attempts 10 or more.

I could break down the Celtics record on probably 100 different data points with cutoffs like this and get this same results.

This is a meaningless conclusion.
The Celtics have a better record when Avery Bradley doesnt play.

pretty big sample size on that one too.

Should we bench Avery Bradley?

absolutely not.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.