Suns and Lakers in full tank mode, Brooklyn keeps winning. Trouble for us?

[TheTruthFot18]

This is all going to be a moot point when LAL wins the lotto and BRK drops to #4.

I can't imagine LAL with Fultz though, he seems like a clone of Russel. They would be better off with Ball, Jackson, or Tatum.

Ideally I'd love to see us go with Fultz and LAL with Ball. We'd have 3 drafts of picking right after each other in the past 4 years.

REALLY ideally I'd love for that pick to drop to # 4 and go to Philly. I would throw a party just for that.

[slamtheking]

Have you actually looked at the standings?  Brooklyn has 7 less wins than the Lakers with 15 games left.  Do you honestly think Brooklyn is going to go 7-8 or better over those 15 games? 
The Lakers are certainly tanking hard but that is too secure the 2nd worst record.

Have you looked at Brooklyns remaining games? here are 12 very winnable games for them
2 against us - they will have motivation to beat us
2 against the bulls - team is on a downward spiral
2 against the 76ers - coin flip
suns- they will win
Magic - they could win
2 against the Pistons - they could win
2 against the hawks - I'd think they'd win one.

This team has motivation to Win, all these teams I listed above have hardly any motivation at all at this point.

TP jbpats for not counting your chickens early... I posted similar sentiments in the Lakers Tank Thread. Although I just said it could get close, the usual suspects voices of reason, showed up with their sarcasm common sense.  Let's hope the Celt's take care of business and we can look to the lottery.

fixed that for you.

Thanks for saving me the effort of finding which thread I responded to the Chicken Little panic being proposed.

Nets are locked in to the worst record in the league this year.  There is no way Lakers will close out the season with what would be 17 straight losses which would still have required the Nets to win 10 games out of 22 (at the time of that thread posting) just to tie the Laker record.  the fact it's closed to 7 doesn't make this worthy of concern.  As of this morning, lakers have 20 wins, the Nets have 13.  Nets would have to go 7-8 the rest of the year when they've gone 13-54 until now.  it isn't going to happen.  The Lakers have 14 games left.  it's inconceivable (cue the Princess Bride references) that the Laker don't win at least 1-2 games.  each win would push the Nets to win more than they lose and that's just not going to happen.
you can put the Chicken Little Panic Mode to rest.  worry about what happens once the lottery balls start being drawn but until that night, Nets will have the best odds to come out with the #1 pick when the season is over. 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Why worry about it? We can't control it. The Nets could've ended the season with a total of 0 wins and there still would be no guarantee we'd get the No. 1 pick (or even No. 2 or No. 3). It's all in how the pingpong balls bounce.

Well, I appreciate your counsel as my therapist, advising to let go of the things we can't control. Good to know.

It matters because (i) our odds of getting top pick increase significantly, (ii) our odds of getting a top 2 or top 3 pick increase significantly, (iii) we would be guaranteed no worse than a top 4 pick. If we finished 2nd in record, we would only be guaranteed a top 5 pick. That is significant because the consensus seems to be building that there are 4 high quality players in this draft (Fultz, Ball, Jackson and Tatum) and a sharp drop to the 5th pick (Isaacs??).

Didn't mean to ruffle anyone's feathers. I only meant to say—to borrow from Bill Belichick—that the situation is what it is (or at least, it will be what it will be). The No. 1 pick would be great to have, the 2 and 3 would be pretty good too, the 4 would be disappointing but still decent—but either of those scenarios is total gravy for a team that's likely going to be a top-3 seed in the conference. I used to let these kinds of things stress me out, and I've seen that it's not worth the stress.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I can't imagine LAL with Fultz though, he seems like a clone of Russel.

If Boston ends up with Fultz, I hope he's a sight better than Russell, who's shooting only 40.5% for his career and only 39.9% this season.

This is all going to be a moot point when LAL wins the lotto and BRK drops to #4.

This would be just our luck, huh? Tim Duncan all over again.

[fairweatherfan]

If they get to within 3 wins of either team with more than 3 games left, I think that'd be the time to get a bit concerned.

For right now, take a broader perspective. If somebody said back in November we'd have a 7- and 9-win cushion separating Brooklyn from the next worst teams with less than a month to go, we'd take that scenario in a millisecond. Instead of fretting about the slim chance we don't get the most Ping-Pong balls, be excited about the much, much higher likelihood we will, and the fact that even if Brooklyn did catch somebody we'd still be guaranteed a top 5 pick, AGAIN.

[nickagneta]

I am more worried about Celtic player injuries, how well the Cavs, Wiz, and Raps are playing, Jaylen's development, Marcus' shooting, IT's defense, Kelly's inconsistency, Trump budget cuts, the price of gas, if my liquor store is going to discontinue selling my brand of scotch, when the next George RR Martin book is coming out, if the sky will remain blue, if the sun is going to rise in the morning and ping ping balls than I am the Nets losing their hold on the worst record in the league. Its not happening.

[mef730]

Put this in the BKN 2016-17 thread, but it's probably worth repeating:

I'm trying to reconcile my natural pessimism with the laws of math. I don't want to be too confident that the Nets have this thing locked up but, with the recognition that jinxes don't actually exist, I took a look at their remaining schedule. I can find seven or eight games where they have a reasonable chance of winning (Your definition of reasonable may be different from mine.), but that's still going to be tough and would have to be combined with the Lakers losing every game between here and the end of the year.

Naturally, the Lakers are likely going to be the underdogs in every one of those games, but that's different than actually losing every one of them. Assuming that the Lakers have only a 10% chance of winning in each of those games (almost ludicrously low), there would still only be a 23% chance that they would actually do so. If the Lakers have a 20% chance of winning in each of those games, the likelihood that they lose all of them is 4%.

I think that there's going to be more sweating over the next month than we would have anticipated a few weeks ago, but ultimately, the Nets should have the worst record. Which, needless to say, is also not equivalent to having the first draft pick.

Mike

[slamtheking]

I can't imagine LAL with Fultz though, he seems like a clone of Russel.

If Boston ends up with Fultz, I hope he's a sight better than Russell, who's shooting only 40.5% for his career and only 39.9% this season.

This is all going to be a moot point when LAL wins the lotto and BRK drops to #4.

This would be just our luck, huh? Tim Duncan all over again.

#4 is absolute worst case and would suck from the viewpoint of having the best odds going into the lottery but this isn't a Duncan draft where the top player is an obvious franchise-changing talent.  The top 4 players in this draft (seems to be migrating to a top 3 draft at this point) would certainly be a welcome addition to this team in terms of talent or as a significant trade chip to bring in a good player.

just taking the viewpoint of having the current team jockeying for one of the top 3 seeds in the East while having just added the #3 pick from last year, the #1-#4 pick in this year's draft and the likelihood of adding another top 5 pick next year (along with whatever our own pick turns out to be) is reason to be excited or at least hopeful of the team's future

[mahcus smaht]

I can't imagine LAL with Fultz though, he seems like a clone of Russel.

If Boston ends up with Fultz, I hope he's a sight better than Russell, who's shooting only 40.5% for his career and only 39.9% this season.

This is all going to be a moot point when LAL wins the lotto and BRK drops to #4.

This would be just our luck, huh? Tim Duncan all over again.

Fultz should be more than slightly better than Russell. He should be much better.

[hwangjini_1]

This team has motivation to Win, all these teams I listed above have hardly any motivation at all at this point.

Ok so let me get this straight: The Brooklyn Nets, who own the worst record in the league by a large margin have more motivation to win, than the Pistons or Bulls, who are fighting for a playoff spot or the celtics who are trying to secure homecourt advantage in the 2nd round.

Yeah, sure, sounds logical!

Brooklyn absolutely has motivation to beat the Celtics, what's their incentive to lose out? Make a rival that much better for that much longer? And do you think tonight is a guarantee with IT out? Especially if Nets are playing hard like they have been?
Bulls season is over now that Wade is done, I predict that team will be in full on rebuild mode and Butler WILL become available this off season. What is more important to them a slim chance at a 8th seed or a good draft spot?
You are correct about the Pistons, they are just one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA, along with the Hawks. I think a streaky Nets team who wants to screw the Celtics can give both of these teams some serious run.

Bet us some TPs on it!

count me in. i always welcome free and easy tps. 

[hwangjini_1]

Yet another Nervous Nancy Thread. (YANNT)

This was my topic and in my OP I did say odds still favor Brooklyn ending up with the worst record. The fact that they are playing arguably their best ball of the season right now, albeit still not great ball, is what's concerning to me.. combined with the fact a lot of teams are entering tank mode right now, something of which Brooklyn has no motivation to do.

but, as was pointed out above, they have not had such notivation all year long. and how did that affect their win total?

childawg's basic point, and that of most other posters here, is that your worry is at best premature and at worst misplaced.

let's see how this all plays out shall we? oh, and i will wait for my tp from the bet. 

[Boris Badenov]

Slamtheking above is right. Even if the Lakers lose ALL of their games, BKN has to go 8-7 to pass them.

It's not going to happen.

Even if you allow for the possibility, let's say there is a 1% chance. So we have a 99% chance of the #1 slot and a 1% chance at the #2 slot.

and all that does is reduce our shot at #1 from 25% to 20%. So instead of a 25% chance at #1, we have an expected chance at #1 of 24.75%.

It's not worth thinking about. The variability in what happens on lottery day is more important than the variability in where BKN falls in the standings, by orders of magnitude.

[wdleehi]

Just not worried.   Has the Nets at any point put together such a run that would be needed?


And the "tanking" teams, have any of them put out a stretch that would be needed?

[SHAQATTACK]

Magic Johnson will tank out the Lakers , just like Philly to get stars ......he is not smart enough or clever enough guy to,build with brains and wit .   ......he is playing the 3 Rd grader way ....destroy the team and wait for the next MJ or LeBron . Trading and development is too complex for Lakers .

Magic is no genius, he hopes to build with luck and tanking.   

NBA really needs to step in ,  and penilize teams that sell orf they Vets and shut down players for no reason other than tank to get a lottery pick.   

[BitterJim]

Magic Johnson will tank out the Lakers , just like Philly to get stars ......he is not smart enough or clever enough guy to,build with brains and wit .   ......he is playing the 3 Rd grader way ....destroy the team and wait for the next MJ or LeBron . Trading and development is too complex for Lakers .

Magic is no genius, he hopes to build with luck and tanking.   

NBA really needs to step in ,  and penilize teams that sell orf they Vets and shut down players for no reason other than tank to get a lottery pick.

There's not a lot Magic can do right now, though.  He's shut down the vets (Mozgov and Deng), but what else can he do? He's not gonna force Walton to sit any of the young guys - that would hurt their development. So he'll just have to hope that the current team isn't good enough to win games this year, because there's no way Walton or the young guys are gonna throw games on purpose. And with them actually trying, they should pick up a win or two before the end of the year (especially if any of the teams they play decide to sit players, like we are doing against the Nets and 76ers, or the Warriors did against the Spurs)