The thing that concerns me is that the C's are 5 points better with Smart on the floor compared to Bradley. Bradley's net +/- is -2, and Smart's is +3.
If it weren't for that, I'd have no hesitation in saying we should pick AB over Smart, for all the reasons people list above.
I suppose there's hope that we might keep both, if Bradley's market doesn't pan out and we strike out in FA. We could re-sign him.
And yet the Celtics most used lineup, in terms of games and minutes played, features Avery Bradley, and not Marcus Smart. Simply substituting Smart for Bradley in that lineup results in a - 0.9 net point differential.
But as a point of reference, Boston only has five 5-man lineups that have played at least 20 games this season. Four of those lineups feature Smart, two of them Bradley. Both of the lineups that feature Bradley have positive point differentials, while only two of the four lineups that feature Smart have a positive point differential, and one of them also features Bradley.
This tells me Bradley has been the more impactful player, and that's Smart's overall better net point differential is boosted by the fact he has played more of his time against bench units. This is substantiated by the fact Smart is featured in more overall lineups, but that none of them have played significant minutes or games together, which is usually the case with bench units.
If there was one knock against Bradley, and it's not an insignificant knock, it's that he has trouble staying healthy.
TP for the strong analysis. I think I'm shifting from 'AB is the odd man out' to 'Incomplete: more info/time needed.'
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing