Author Topic: Turnovers and the MVP Race  (Read 880 times)

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Turnovers and the MVP Race
« on: March 12, 2017, 09:19:58 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Last season, James Harden broke the NBA record for most TO's in a season with 372. This season, with 16 games left, he already has 382 TO's and should smash through 400 without problem. Russell Westbrook currently sits at 356 and is also on pace to cruise past 400 TO's unless he misses significant injury time.

The only player I could find who has ever averaged 5 TO's per game is Pistol Pete in 1978, the first year the stat was officially kept. Maybe there are others, but I couldn't find any. Both Harden (5.8 ) and Westbrook (5.4) average more than he did that season.

Does this matter to anyone? I know both guys spend a lot of time with the ball in their hands but are we going to give the MVP to someone turning the ball over at unprecedented rates?
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Re: Turnovers and the MVP Race
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2017, 09:42:44 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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How do their teams rank overall in terms of turnover rate, assist rate, and scoring efficiency?
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Re: Turnovers and the MVP Race
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2017, 09:54:44 PM »

Offline Big333223

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How do their teams rank overall in terms of turnover rate, assist rate, and scoring efficiency?
Great question.

OKC and Houston are the 7th and 8th worst turnover teams in the league, respectively. When you adjust for pace, OKC is still the 7th worst but Houston improves to 11th worst.

Houston is #1 in offensive rating and #4 is assist rate, so that's good. OKC, though, is only 16th in offensive rating and a dismal 27th in assist rate.

All of which kind of confirms my feeling about Westbrook's stats lacking some substance.
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Re: Turnovers and the MVP Race
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 07:05:43 AM »

Online Who

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It's just the way the league is now. The rule changes have made it so. That is more effective / efficient to give your primary ball-handler more touches and time on the ball than ever before. To give them more responsibility to break down the defense than ever before. To score more often than ever before.

More touches, time on the ball, shot attempts = more turnovers.

Edit: I mean, both guys are going for something like 30 points and 10 assists. Putting up big numbers like that in both categories ... you are also going to put up a massive number of turnovers. It is expected (or should be expected) that they are also posting record turnover numbers.

What was the Bill Fitch quote on Larry Bird's big number of turnovers -- those who do the most painting, spill the most paint -- something like that.

This is what is happening with Westbrook and Harden. They are both doing so much for their teams. Putting up 30 / 10 stat lines. Numbers you just don't see. Freak numbers. And with those numbers come turnovers. A huge number of turnovers. No surprise they are breaking records for turnovers.

Last player to put up 30/10 was Tiny Archibald in the mid 70s and they didn't keep track of turnovers back then. So what Harden & Westbrook are doing in terms of 30 / 10 relative to turnovers is incomparable (statistically) to anything before it. They are simply doing more on offense than anyone else in terms of points / assists. And with that more turnovers.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2017, 07:30:35 AM by Who »

Re: Turnovers and the MVP Race
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2017, 07:12:15 AM »

Offline RockinRyA

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A good stat to look at would probably TO per touch.

Re: Turnovers and the MVP Race
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2017, 07:20:04 AM »

Offline Big333223

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It's just the way the league is now. The rule changes have made it so. That is more effective / efficient to give your primary ball-handler more touches and time on the ball than ever before. To give them more responsibility to break down the defense than ever before. To score more often than ever before.

More touches, time on the ball, shot attempts = more turnovers.
Harden and Westbrook are both in the top 15 in turnovers for a season all time (both for this season and last) but they're the only active players in the top 34 of that list. John Wall and Dwight Howard are the only other players in the last decade that have turned the ball over enough to make the top 100 in that list.

There also aren't more turnovers now in the NBA than there have been in the past. There are actually slightly fewer turnovers than there typically was in the late 90's.

So while you're right that the NBA is changing and the lead ballhandler is now more frequently the lead scorer as well, I don't see that as a trend that has affected TO's all that much, league-wide.
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