Danny doesn't get enough credit

[Moranis]

Bradley was a great draft pick where he was picked  and is a quality starter level player, but let's not put him in the hall of fame. He is a 4th or 5th best player on a title team and that is if he can stay healthy.  He has missed a lot of games.  Again a great draft value but a guy that can easily be upgraded.  Given his contract situation and injury history he is also the small most likely to be moved.

[hwangjini_1]

Keep complaining about JR Giddens tho...

Bradley was a top two high school in his class, Ainge hit a gem.

He also took KO when he could have got the Greek Freak and drafted Fab Melo.   He is a great GM but no one is perfect.  We are lucky to have him but pretending he is perfect is silly.

where in this thread does someone state this? you are right, but you are arguing against a straw figure here.

[Moranis]

Keep complaining about JR Giddens tho...

Bradley was a top two high school in his class, Ainge hit a gem.

He also took KO when he could have got the Greek Freak and drafted Fab Melo.   He is a great GM but no one is perfect.  We are lucky to have him but pretending he is perfect is silly.

where in this thread does someone state this? you are right, but you are arguing against a straw figure here.

a bit of that but the thread title is Danny doesn't get enough credit and the opening post says for drafting Bradley and then concludes with Giddens.  If you don't look at the complete record then how can give Danny the appropriate credit?  Danny is a middle of the road drafter especially recently. He is an excellent trader.  Does ok in free agency.   All of that makes him a well above average GM. He has to get this summer right though as it will shape the team going forward for a very long time.

[trickybilly]

I trust Danny implicitly but seeing Ibaka, Noel, Nurkic, Bogut and even Tiago Splitter all go to good teams for next to nothing was a little offputting.

One can only presume that he only trusts Zeller being able to slide in understanding our team schemes if indeed in the playoffs.

[hpantazo]

I trust Danny implicitly but seeing Ibaka, Noel, Nurkic, Bogut and even Tiago Splitter all go to good teams for next to nothing was a little offputting.

One can only presume that he only trusts Zeller being able to slide in understanding our team schemes if indeed in the playoffs.

Splitter is pretty much retired, he will never play again, and Bogut predictably got injured.

[mgent]

Um, yeah, Avery gets just about the right amount of credit/respect, both here and league-wide.

IT, up until recently, was the guy I would say wasn't getting enough respect.

As of now, I would say Smart, Jae, and Olynyk are infinitely more underappreciated for our success compared to AB.

[KGBirdBias]

for picking Avery Bradley where he got him.  Kid is a complete player, possible All-Star.  Unreal defender.

Keep complaining about JR Giddens tho...

THIS 

[KGBirdBias]

I believe Ainge is a good at evaluating guards but he's HORRIBLE at evlauting big men. It's proven that he doesn't see how important they are in building and maintaining a championship team. He thinks tweeners can get it done. Remember we always wanted KG to have some help...what does he do...trade Perk. He thought BBD, Powe can play the 4. When he does get a big, he's soft and limited. He could've easily signed an athletic big like McGee, Sanders, etc but he continues to pass on bigs that are effective in others ways besides scoring. Just think how effective Horford would be if he played next to a true center. Horford has been playing out of position most of his career. He's good if you want to play small.

I expect another guard taken in this draft. Personally, I'm starting to REALLY like Jason Tatum. He's starting to look like PG13 or Pippen. He's going to grow and if you had him and Brown on the court at the same time, it would be scary in 3 years.

[Moranis]

I believe Ainge is a good at evaluating guards but he's HORRIBLE at evlauting big men. It's proven that he doesn't see how important they are in building and maintaining a championship team. He thinks tweeners can get it done. Remember we always wanted KG to have some help...what does he do...trade Perk. He thought BBD, Powe can play the 4. When he does get a big, he's soft and limited. He could've easily signed an athletic big like McGee, Sanders, etc but he continues to pass on bigs that are effective in others ways besides scoring. Just think how effective Horford would be if he played next to a true center. Horford has been playing out of position most of his career. He's good if you want to play small.

I expect another guard taken in this draft. Personally, I'm starting to REALLY like Jason Tatum. He's starting to look like PG13 or Pippen. He's going to grow and if you had him and Brown on the court at the same time, it would be scary in 3 years.

I'm not even sure Ainge is a good evaluator of guards either.  I mean his last 4 guards selected in order of most recent are RJ Hunter, Terry Rozier, James Young, and Marcus Smart.  Smart obviously has staying power, but Hunter is already out of the league and Young may not find a roster next year either.  Rozier has shown some solid things at times, but looks downright terrible other times.  Going back further for 1st round guards you've got Avery Bradley and JR Giddens.  A home run and a complete bust.  He traded the pick that would be Foye (with Gay and Redick on the board) for Sebastian Telfair.  West and Allen were both solid picks (real shame West has a mental illness as I always liked him), but then you have him trading up to draft Marcus Banks for his very first 1st round guard. 

[KGBirdBias]

I believe Ainge is a good at evaluating guards but he's HORRIBLE at evlauting big men. It's proven that he doesn't see how important they are in building and maintaining a championship team. He thinks tweeners can get it done. Remember we always wanted KG to have some help...what does he do...trade Perk. He thought BBD, Powe can play the 4. When he does get a big, he's soft and limited. He could've easily signed an athletic big like McGee, Sanders, etc but he continues to pass on bigs that are effective in others ways besides scoring. Just think how effective Horford would be if he played next to a true center. Horford has been playing out of position most of his career. He's good if you want to play small.

I expect another guard taken in this draft. Personally, I'm starting to REALLY like Jason Tatum. He's starting to look like PG13 or Pippen. He's going to grow and if you had him and Brown on the court at the same time, it would be scary in 3 years.

I'm not even sure Ainge is a good evaluator of guards either.  I mean his last 4 guards selected in order of most recent are RJ Hunter, Terry Rozier, James Young, and Marcus Smart.  Smart obviously has staying power, but Hunter is already out of the league and Young may not find a roster next year either.  Rozier has shown some solid things at times, but looks downright terrible other times.  Going back further for 1st round guards you've got Avery Bradley and JR Giddens.  A home run and a complete bust.  He traded the pick that would be Foye (with Gay and Redick on the board) for Sebastian Telfair.  West and Allen were both solid picks (real shame West has a mental illness as I always liked him), but then you have him trading up to draft Marcus Banks for his very first 1st round guard.

Good points. I think what Ainge really likes are defensive dogs. He likes guys who are going to fight...Rondo, Smart, Rozier, AB, IT.  He played with DJ and tends to look at defensive skills and never give up attitude over offensive, finesse skills.

[ForearmKiki]

What is everyone's opinion of Danny's manipulation of the NBA Lottery's Ping Pong Balls? I think he could do a better job in that department.

[mctyson]

Keep complaining about JR Giddens tho...

Bradley was a top two high school in his class, Ainge hit a gem.

He also took KO when he could have got the Greek Freak and drafted Fab Melo.   He is a great GM but no one is perfect.  We are lucky to have him but pretending he is perfect is silly.

where in this thread does someone state this? you are right, but you are arguing against a straw figure here.

a bit of that but the thread title is Danny doesn't get enough credit and the opening post says for drafting Bradley and then concludes with Giddens.  If you don't look at the complete record then how can give Danny the appropriate credit?  Danny is a middle of the road drafter especially recently. He is an excellent trader.  Does ok in free agency.   All of that makes him a well above average GM. He has to get this summer right though as it will shape the team going forward for a very long time.

I can't possibly disagree with this more and that is why I stated "Danny doesn't give enough credit."

Please read this and get back to me.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

[Moranis]

Keep complaining about JR Giddens tho...

Bradley was a top two high school in his class, Ainge hit a gem.

He also took KO when he could have got the Greek Freak and drafted Fab Melo.   He is a great GM but no one is perfect.  We are lucky to have him but pretending he is perfect is silly.

where in this thread does someone state this? you are right, but you are arguing against a straw figure here.

a bit of that but the thread title is Danny doesn't get enough credit and the opening post says for drafting Bradley and then concludes with Giddens.  If you don't look at the complete record then how can give Danny the appropriate credit?  Danny is a middle of the road drafter especially recently. He is an excellent trader.  Does ok in free agency.   All of that makes him a well above average GM. He has to get this summer right though as it will shape the team going forward for a very long time.

I can't possibly disagree with this more and that is why I stated "Danny doesn't give enough credit."

Please read this and get back to me.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/17/freelance-friday-expected-value-in-the-nba-draft/

I posted the below on Sept 2, 2016. Later in that same thread I corrected myself on West and called him average (not underperform). Overall that strikes me as an average drafter.  Some real hits, but plenty of real misses, and as I said it appears he is trending in the wrong direction (though Brown certainly looks pretty good thus far). 

Ainge full draft analysis

2003 - Banks (underperformed), Perkins (overperformed), Hunter (solid enough for a 2nd rounder, with 67 games total)
2004 - Jefferson (significantly overperformed), West (underperformed - though mental rather than physical and Boston traded him before he imploded so Ainge used that one well), Allen (overperformed), Reed (overperformed for a 2nd rounder)
2005 - Green (underperformed especially for Boston), Gomes (overperformed), Greene (overperformed for a 2nd rounder)
2006 - traded a lottery pick for Sebastian Telfair (wasted asset), Rondo (significantly overperformed - gave up a future 1st which turned out to be 24 in 2007 so solid trade as well)
2007 - traded a lottery pick for Ray Allen (used asset well), Davis (overperformed), Pruitt (solid enough)
2008 - Giddens (horrible), Erden (solid, though just 69 games total, but for pick 60 that isn't bad)
2009 - Hudson (same as Erden basically)
2010 - Bradley (overperformed), Harangody (same as Erden basically)
2011 - JJJ (horrible), Moore (overperformed - real nice value for end of 2nd round)
2012 - Sullinger (overperformed, though no longer on team), Melo (underperformed), Joseph (about average)
2013 - Olynyk (in a redraft he probably goes around 15, though ahead of most of the guys taken before him, just behind a lot of guys taken after him - so I will call this about average performance)
2014 - Smart (fairly early, but at this point looks more like the 10th pick than the 6th pick so I'll call that underperformed), Young (underperformed)
2015 - Rozier (probably too early to call Rozier), Hunter (if he gets cut then he underperformed)

So Ainge has traded into the lottery twice for Banks and Olynyk, neither one could be considered a success and Banks was an outright failure.  4 times Boston has had a lottery pick entering the draft.  The first two times Ainge traded the pick, once successfully, once badly.  The last two, Ainge has drafted i.e. Smart and Brown, so it is early to know how he did there, though Smart is looking more like the 10th pick than the 6th pick thus far.  Ainge has done quite well in the 2nd round overall, often getting players that at least play in the league a fair amount of the time and three times landing multiple contract NBA players in Gomes, Davis, and Moore.  The mid to late 1st round have been a real crap shoot.  Obviously Jefferson and Rondo were raging successes and Perkins, Bradley, and Sullinger have had solid careers, but he also took a number of players that were absolute failures.  My real concern, as I've stated in this thread, is Ainge is trending in the wrong direction.  His hits aren't hitting as nicely and he is missing a lot more frequently. 

[mef730]

Avery is my favorite Celtic and his impact is definitely under-appreciated.

The kid is a consummate professional and each offseason improves a different part of his game.

If we could have twelve players with his mindset and work ethic, we'd be golden.

He's a rock star off the court and I'd hate to lose a guy who is such a good citizen. Remember this thread?

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=82210.0

Mike

[SHAQATTACK]

So.....I'm not really sure what Danny bases his draft picks on.   Is Danny really at fault ? Or is he getting poor imformation from others....?  Is he listening or not listening to the right people.

I believe the past two drafts Danny has picked better .

Smart IS a great pick .....any team would love to have this guy above tons of other now injuried , sorry players .....

Brown appears to be an excellent pick .

I'm wondering .....IF. ...Stevens is actually a better judge of talent than Danny.   Stevens had to really hustle to find players that could compete at national level in college.  He did not have the Kentucky and ACC automatic draw of top talent lining up at his door.

I'd listen to CBS if I were Danny .