Author Topic: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018  (Read 13689 times)

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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2017, 03:53:51 AM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Jaylen Brown: 14.1 ppg, 5.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 44% fg, 36% 3pt, 1.2 stls

Marcus Smart: 7.7 ppg, 3.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 29% fg, 11% 3pt, 0.9 stls

Jaylen Brown thread, and he chooses to write about Smart too?

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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2017, 03:59:36 AM »

Offline alewilliam789

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A lot of it is predicated on his playing time, our depth chart, and the progression of his shot from year 1 to year 2. I would say 11 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 assists on 45% from the field and 35% from 3. I think Brown will make a bigger jump in his 3rd year than he will from his rookie to his sophomore years

Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2017, 07:11:47 AM »

Offline max215

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It depends on what happens this offseason, but 13-14 PPG wouldn't surprise me.
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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2017, 08:15:27 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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A lot of it is predicated on his playing time, our depth chart, and the progression of his shot from year 1 to year 2. I would say 11 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 assists on 45% from the field and 35% from 3. I think Brown will make a bigger jump in his 3rd year than he will from his rookie to his sophomore years
Mostly agree with your post, stats are impossible to predict, but why a bigger jump in his 3rd year?  If anything, Jaylen has proven to be ahead of schedule in his rookie year.  I would not bet against him making a BIG jump next season.  Everything points to it.

Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2017, 08:54:29 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Jaylen Brown: 14.1 ppg, 5.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 44% fg, 36% 3pt, 1.2 stls

Marcus Smart: 7.7 ppg, 3.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 29% fg, 11% 3pt, 0.9 stls
Smart will average much more than that...


No, apparently Smart will regress rapidly next year. He is already entering his post-prime. It happened quickly, didn't it?

I especially like the 11% 3pt. I am pretty sure I could replicate that with only hook shots from downtown.

Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2017, 09:05:25 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Jaylen Brown: 14.1 ppg, 5.6 reb, 2.1 ast, 44% fg, 36% 3pt, 1.2 stls

Marcus Smart: 7.7 ppg, 3.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 29% fg, 11% 3pt, 0.9 stls
Smart will average much more than that...


No, apparently Smart will regress rapidly next year. He is already entering his post-prime. It happened quickly, didn't it?

I especially like the 11% 3pt. I am pretty sure I could replicate that with only hook shots from downtown.

He just left off the leading ones.  What he meant was 17.7 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 13.4 apg, 129% fg, 111% 3p, and 10.9 steals. Should be good enough to win MVP

I think his math might be off a bit on the shooting percentages, though, they seem a bit high
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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2017, 09:55:39 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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He's averaging 12 points and 4 rebounds, shooting almost 50% from 3, in his last 10 games.  I would have to think a projection for next year would have to be at least that (maybe not the shooting).

Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2017, 10:04:22 AM »

Offline Moranis

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He's averaging 12 points and 4 rebounds, shooting almost 50% from 3, in his last 10 games.  I would have to think a projection for next year would have to be at least that (maybe not the shooting).
It is 11.5 ppg in his last 10, but as you say a likely unrealistic shooting percentage (50% from three in his last 5 games and not much worse the prior 5 either).  His minutes in those 10 are 24.5, which I think will be right around what he will get next year.  So a more reasonable shooting percentage, but maybe an extra shot a game, I figure 11 seems like a reasonable projection.  I think 4 rebounds is also reasonable, so I went with 11/4.  Now if one of the smalls is traded for a big man, that would open up more potential playing time, especially if the rookie is not a small either.
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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2017, 10:09:05 AM »

Offline The One

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Just listened to Dunc'd On...they redrafted the 2016 NBA draft.

1 - Ben Simmons
2 - Jamal Murray
3 - Jaylen Brown (with Leroux putting Hernangomez in the same tier)


I can see why Simmons would still be #1...but Jamal at #2 over Jaylen?


Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2017, 10:18:00 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Just listened to Dunc'd On...they redrafted the 2016 NBA draft.

1 - Ben Simmons
2 - Jamal Murray
3 - Jaylen Brown (with Leroux putting Hernangomez in the same tier)


I can see why Simmons would still be #1...but Jamal at #2 over Jaylen?
Murray is younger than Brown and has played pretty well lately as well.  Nice shooting touch (with a more proven shooting pedigree).  I'd rather have Brown than Murray, but I don't find that to be totally crazy either. 

I still think Ingram goes #2 in a re-draft.  Everyone knew he was going to take a lot of time to develop so the fact that he has struggled a bit (especially on that team) shouldn't surprise anyone. 
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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2017, 10:29:46 AM »

Offline The One

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Just listened to Dunc'd On...they redrafted the 2016 NBA draft.

1 - Ben Simmons
2 - Jamal Murray
3 - Jaylen Brown (with Leroux putting Hernangomez in the same tier)


I can see why Simmons would still be #1...but Jamal at #2 over Jaylen?
Murray is younger than Brown and has played pretty well lately as well.  Nice shooting touch (with a more proven shooting pedigree).  I'd rather have Brown than Murray, but I don't find that to be totally crazy either. 

I still think Ingram goes #2 in a re-draft.  Everyone knew he was going to take a lot of time to develop so the fact that he has struggled a bit (especially on that team) shouldn't surprise anyone.

I fear that Ingram has a BIG hill to climb...has to improve skills AND his body.

Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #26 on: March 13, 2017, 10:43:42 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Just listened to Dunc'd On...they redrafted the 2016 NBA draft.

1 - Ben Simmons
2 - Jamal Murray
3 - Jaylen Brown (with Leroux putting Hernangomez in the same tier)


I can see why Simmons would still be #1...but Jamal at #2 over Jaylen?
Murray is younger than Brown and has played pretty well lately as well.  Nice shooting touch (with a more proven shooting pedigree).  I'd rather have Brown than Murray, but I don't find that to be totally crazy either. 

I still think Ingram goes #2 in a re-draft.  Everyone knew he was going to take a lot of time to develop so the fact that he has struggled a bit (especially on that team) shouldn't surprise anyone.

I fear that Ingram has a BIG hill to climb...has to improve skills AND his body.
Ingram has his 2PT% well above 50% in March (still a poor 3 point shooter though his February he was at 35.5%).  He is averaging 11 ppg in March and that includes the goose egg against Boston.  Rebounding alright, passing alright.  He is playing a lot of minutes, which also messes with your efficiency (though increases your totals obviously).  Ingram has not harmed his potential ceiling this year, which is still higher than Brown or anyone else not named Simmons from that draft.  Thus, I believe he still goes #2 in a re-draft. 
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Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #27 on: March 13, 2017, 10:57:01 AM »

Offline footey

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Good article in today's Herald by Bulpitt about Brown's future, GM's comparing his potential with Kawhi Leonard.

I don't think they're saying that about Brandon Ingram.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/03/bulpett_jaylen_brown_s_potential_seems_sky_high




Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2017, 11:00:35 AM »

Offline straightouttabahstun

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I used to compare him in the mold of T-Mac but with better D. Jaylen Brown may just turn into his own thing at this point. He's definitely got a lot of similarities to a bunch of different players (Buter, Westbrook, Kawhi, Kobe). It's real fun to watch this kid grow.

 As far as stats go for next year, floor is 11/ 5, ceiling is 14/6. Scoring and shooting has improved rapidly, so who knows what he can do with a full offseason/more time in Brad's system.

Re: Predict Jaylen Brown's Stats in 2017-2018
« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2017, 11:17:54 AM »

Offline footey

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I used to compare him in the mold of T-Mac but with better D. Jaylen Brown may just turn into his own thing at this point. He's definitely got a lot of similarities to a bunch of different players (Buter, Westbrook, Kawhi, Kobe). It's real fun to watch this kid grow.

 As far as stats go for next year, floor is 11/ 5, ceiling is 14/6. Scoring and shooting has improved rapidly, so who knows what he can do with a full offseason/more time in Brad's system.

Yeah, I think that is a good, reasonable floor/ceiling range.  Given his age, not realistic to expect him to jump much more than that next year. I think the following year is when we will see a big jump, especially when he becomes a starter and he gets starter minutes. He needs a lot more improvement on his handle, but given his work ethic it seems that he will do exactly that.  Butler was incredibly complimentary toward Brown in the Bulpett article. I feel bad that I disparated Butler the other day.