The most likely plan spells the end for IT, Crowder, and possibly Smart.

[OldSchoolDude]

My point isn’t to trade IT and Crowder and run with a rookie team.  It is that our young players have talent and when push comes to shove they will push the older players out.    I think some of IT’s recent comments hint at the fact that he knows we are drafting his replacement and that if he wants to get paid he will have to go elsewhere.

IT can start for all of next year but when it comes time to give him 30+ million a year Danny is going to look at the development of Fultz or Ball after their one season and make a tough decision on IT, just like Atlanta did when they went with Schroder over Teague.  I think Jeff Teague is still a better player than Schroder but it was a business move to go with the younger up and coming player.     

To have Fultz/Ball learn for lets say 2 seasons then take over as the main guy at the point leaves us IT on a Max deal at 30 million for 4 more years.  He will finish his current deal by the end of Fultz/Ball first year, then if he signs a 5 year max, by the end of Fultz/Ball second year he will still have 4 years at huge money and he will be 30 with a game based mainly around quickness.   We don’t want to get stuck with another Gerald Wallace type deal, do we?  Wallace legitimately played himself in to a well-deserved max deal, but then he lost a step and it became a horrible contract.   

Crowder has 3 more years on his deal after this one.  It’s a great contract, but how good will brown be after 3 more seasons?  I beat he’ll be good enough that we don’t give Crowder a big new contract. 

So my predictions, which can’t turn out any worse than all the trade rumors and ideas that never came through on this blog anyway, are that:

1) One more year of IT, then he’s gone.  IT walks in 2018 free agency, but I could see Danny granting him a trade to a team he likes so they can have his bird rights. 

2) Three more years of Crowder then he’s gone.  Crowder finishes his three years and Danny offers him the hometown discount to stay but he declines and leaves to get paid elsewhere.

3) If we get Hayward then Smart gets traded for a big at some point, and we have a Fultz Brown backcourt.  But if we don’t get Hayward Smart becomes the point guard of the future and we have a Smart Fultz backcourt.


Of course all posts are just the posters opinion but if you disagree with me, and my predictions come true, remember I told you so. 

But feel free to forget that I really believed we were drafting Bender, haha 

[OldSchoolDude]

So based on what Celtics co-owner Wyc Grousbec said it looks like the Cs are eyeing the long haul.  It appears that the he wants to use the pick and they don't care if that player develops after ITs window closes.   He says he's not worried about Browns window closing but no mention of IT.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/05/17/wyc-grousbeck-celtics-number-one-draft-pick/

Here are the key take aways:

Grousbeck noted that trading the pick to get a player with a max contract means the team would have to send equivalent money out, so the value really is in adding the young player who is five or six years away from a max deal.

“If you can get a really good guy with this pick, you’ve got him, you can build with him,” Grousbeck explained. “It’s a totally different thing. These picks are really valuable in today’s NBA. So our intention would be to make the pick unless someone blows us away with an offer.”

As for which player the Celtics might pick? Grousbeck said he leaves that to Danny Ainge and Co.

“Last time I talked to Danny, he had the guys in order. But he is entitled to change his mind right up until [the draft],” Grousbeck said.

There’s been some talk that the Celtics wouldn’t want the No. 1 pick, because the young player they drafted wouldn’t be developed enough to contribute to a title run with this current core of Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford and No. 3 overall pick in 2016, Jaylen Brown. Grousbeck said he didn’t quite understand that logic.

“I just looked at something that said we average 25 years old, including Al Horford. The other three [teams] in the semifinals average 28, 29 years old. We’re four years younger than any other team that’s playing right now,” Grousbeck said. “I’m not worried that Jaylen Brown’s going to miss any windows. The kid just turned 20. I’m worried that I’m going to miss his window. I’m 55.”

What else do we know now we didn't a few months ago when I started tis thread?

IT just qualified for the super max.
IT just showed that his hight is a real problem at least in the playoffs.
IT was subbed out for defense in crunch time because he is a liability on D.
IT struggles on offense when the there team traps.

Jaylan Brown is showing that he will be a good player.

Crowder is showing that he may be better suited for a bench role sooner rather than latter.

Smart can handle the point but his shooting is still a problem.

Rozier is looking like he can be a legit rotation player in the league given the chance.

Hayward missed out on the super max, many media sources hinting that he may join the Cs as a FA.

So I began this thread because there was a lot of mixed opinions on maxing IT. I wanted to explain why I thought there was no way we would max IT.  My opinion was dismissed by some as nonsense when I stared this thread.   I wonder if the "core's" struggle against Rondo, or the inability to play constantly vs Washington, or the beat down we're being handed by the Cavs, is proving that we currently lack the length and athleticism to be the team many people thought we were. 

I believe that trading half our core and the Brooklyn picks sets us back further than picking Fultz going after Hayward as a FA and letting IT walk.  I believe that we can be a true contender, with length and athleticism, once the Brooklyn picks are in place as our big three. Only that plan spells the end for IT, Crowder, and possibly Smart.

[Ilikesports17]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

[mr. dee]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

[Future Celtics Owner]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

[mr. dee]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

That production has been putrid in the playoffs. Trading all the current core at once is a suicide. Danny wants continuity and tearing down the foundation already established is not the way to go.  We want to replace IT and others but we might want to develop our future core first before shopping them around.

[tarheelsxxiii]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

Can you point to a single precedent for moving backwards in the 4th year of a surprisingly successful rebuild?

[OldSchoolDude]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

That production has been putrid in the playoffs. Trading all the current core at once is a suicide. Danny wants continuity and tearing down the foundation already established is not the way to go.  We want to replace IT and others but we might want to develop our future core first before shopping them around.

I am not trying to trade all the current core at once.  I’m saying one more year of IT and three more yeas of Crowder.   Look to see Smart or Bradley traded but I’m guessing its smart.   It will probably be IT gone in a year, then Smart the next year, then Crowder year after that. 

[OldSchoolDude]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

Crowder is not going right away but he is out of the long-term plans.  His contract is up in three years and by the time his deal is up the Memphis or Clippers pick will be ready to assume the back up SF spot behind Hayward.   Crowder will want to get paid and that’s not going t happen here.  To maintain the salary cap the bench must be on cheep deals, so there will not be money to pay Crowder what he deserves.   He may not want to stay as Hayward’s back up in the first place, but even if he did, with the salary cap rising he’s got to feel jerked over a little bit when it come to his pay.   Come FA time, all we’ll probable be able to offer him is the mid level exemption like we did with Turner; someone will offer him more than us and he’ll leave.   

IT is offense and Smart is defense, but Bradley is both.   So if I keep one of the three to come off the bench its Bradley.  Also, he will cost a lot less than IT.  A 4 guard rotation of PG: Fultz/Rozier and SG: Brown/Bradley, would be excellent.

[Dino Pitino]

Hayward...can he be a stretch 4? If he can manage as a PF, our Smart problem is solved.

Fultz
Smart
Brown
Hayward
Horford

Crowder could come off the bench,
Isaiah moves elsewhere, Bradley too.

Millsap instead could work, too. It'd be re-forming last year's Hawks except, if Fultz and Jaylen bloom early, then Millsap and Horford would be the 3rd and 4th best players on the team as opposed to 1st and 2nd.

Fultz
Smart
Brown
Millsap
Horford

[OldSchoolDude]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

Can you point to a single precedent for moving backwards in the 4th year of a surprisingly successful rebuild?

It’s not moving backwards, it’s replacing the placeholder players with the real team.  Yeah that sounds insulting to the players giving their all every night, but to rebuild we need to acquire the right pieces and when we do the placeholder has to go.   

If the playoffs have shown anything it’s that our core of IT, Bradley, Smart, and Crowder Just aren’t good enough to win a championship.  CBS has really over achieved with this group and it shows.  If you want to move forward those guys need to be replaced, otherwise you’re just treading water.

The first move forward not back, will be to draft Fultz so he can take the PG slot that IT is keeping warm for him.   The next move forward not back, will be to sign Hayward as a FA.   This will push Crowder to the bench and he doesn’t end up part of a trade there will be no reason to resign him.  I think Crowder’s game is already starting to decline.  He may be fairly useless when his awesome contract is up.   

[Future Celtics Owner]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

That production has been putrid in the playoffs. Trading all the current core at once is a suicide. Danny wants continuity and tearing down the foundation already established is not the way to go.  We want to replace IT and others but we might want to develop our future core first before shopping them around.

I am not trying to trade all the current core at once.  I’m saying one more year of IT and three more yeas of Crowder.   Look to see Smart or Bradley traded but I’m guessing its smart.   It will probably be IT gone in a year, then Smart the next year, then Crowder year after that.

Who knows what DA will do. After gauging this team to the only other contender in the Eastern Conf. for the next 2-3 years he could change his mind. He tried to trade IT last year for a lotto pick...wish he did...but who knows what DA will do. IMO Fultz will be ready to play right away and IMO Brown has a real chance to be a stud...for next year at the 2. Fultz and Brown would be the longest back-court in the entire NBA and could be a dynamic 2-way "smooth beast".......it's just my wish/ opinion I respect yours and that's cool.

I don't get why you would rather let players walk then trade them for value. Mostly because we are going to have 2 legit studs with Fultz and Brown...maybe more if we trade. And we have the opportunity to have 2 top 5 picks in next years draft.

It's not like we are close to competing with CLE to get out of the East. Very happy we made the ecf and can properly gauge how we match to a legit contender. I think this is a positive, especially bc Brown has shown up and shown flashes of stud potential.

[Future Celtics Owner]

IT didn't qualify for the super max.

I think most likely plan means AB is gone this summer. We pursue Hayward hard.

Everyone else stays put. We reevaluate Thomas and Smart the following summer and most likely resign both. That seems to be the most likely path.

I don't get why crowder is on his way out. His contract makes him the most logical option to keep long term as a role player.

He's cheap but a bench player at best and I don't think he's committed on playing behind younger guys. Not long and athletic enough to match up against the likes of Durant or Lebron. Lost his intensity on D and now sagging off his man. If you can upgrade him for better player, then do so.

Teams value Crowder because of his production and his contract, his contract is the top 5 most valuable according to REALGM. So we trade him and get some value back.

Personally I have been waiting a long time to hear that we traded IT/AB/Smart. I don't want to resign them and I'd rather trade them while they have some value instead of letting them walk. I know I'm in the minority and I get crap for it all the time, but I would love to see DA take this team in a different dirtection....we own our 1st rounder next year and it's been my opinion that we trade our vets for younger prospects and go into next years draft with 2 top 5 picks.

Can you point to a single precedent for moving backwards in the 4th year of a surprisingly successful rebuild?

It’s not moving backwards, it’s replacing the placeholder players with the real team.  Yeah that sounds insulting to the players giving their all every night, but to rebuild we need to acquire the right pieces and when we do the placeholder has to go.   

If the playoffs have shown anything it’s that our core of IT, Bradley, Smart, and Crowder Just aren’t good enough to win a championship.  CBS has really over achieved with this group and it shows.  If you want to move forward those guys need to be replaced, otherwise you’re just treading water.

The first move forward not back, will be to draft Fultz so he can take the PG slot that IT is keeping warm for him.   The next move forward not back, will be to sign Hayward as a FA.   This will push Crowder to the bench and he doesn’t end up part of a trade there will be no reason to resign him.  I think Crowder’s game is already starting to decline.  He may be fairly useless when his awesome contract is up.

I want to see us trade those guys instead of sending them to the bench, place holding, and walking away as FA. Sometimes to move forward you need to take a step back.....

[ssspence]

Crowder is a crazy good player

Sure he is.

[obnoxiousmime]

this is what I see happening,
DA tries to sign max FA within the next two seasons. If hayward or blake comes this summer, DA signs/extends our current for to market value contracts. If no other max FA comes then DA re-signs the guys on expiring contracts and hope one of the draft picks develops into a star.

Why would "the guys" sign expiring contracts?