The most likely plan spells the end for IT, Crowder, and possibly Smart.

[OldSchoolDude]

If we just look at the draft pick in terms of the guard position it doesn’t seem too bad at first.  Fultz or Ball both can play PG or SG.   Ball is shooting 42% from NBA 3 point range and move extremely well off ball.   Fultz is well Fultz.  So moving forward with our keeper team past IT’s free agency, assuming we don’t keep Bradley, we can play:

PG:  IT            PG:  Fultz/Ball
SG:  Fultz/Ball              SG: IT
             or
PG:  Smart          PG:  Fultz/Ball
SG:  Fultz/Ball              SG: Smart

So no problem right?

The problem is bigger and more immediate if we sign Hayward as a FA, as is expected by many people.  Brown is going to be a really good player, so moving forward he will need to Start and he will be good enough to start over Crowder, not today, but he will be and he will be sooner rather than latter.  Now without Hayward we can play Brown like this:

PG:  IT            PG:  Fultz/Ball
SG:  Fultz/Ball              SG: IT
SF: Brown                 SF: Brown
             or
PG:  Smart          PG:  Fultz/Ball
SG:  Fultz/Ball              SG: Smart
SF: Brown                 SF: Brown

While that’s bad for Crowder, it’s bad for Smart and IT with Hayward.  Hayward has to play and Brown has to play.   Now Brown has played his best and looked the best playing SG while Bradley was out and Hayward has played SG and can really paly either 2 or 3.   But we are drafting Fultz or Ball who are going to play either PG or SG.  So assuming they are the real deal we will eventually need to stat whichever one we draft.  Thus putting us at:


PG:  Fultz                 PG:  Ball
SG:  Hayward         SG: Hayward
SF: Brown                 SF: Brown
             or
PG:  Fultz                 PG:  Ball
SG:  Brown         SG: Brown
SF: Hayward         SF: Hayward   

This leaves IT, Smart and Crowder on the Bench.  But it gets worse for them.  We close with our best players, that’s why we go small.  Right now Stevens loves this lineup:

PG:  IT
SG:  Bradley
SF:  Smart
PF:  Crowder
C:  Horford

These are our best players and rightly they should close, even if it makes us under sized.  But when we add Hayward who has a legit chance to make the all NBA team we’ll need to close with him.  When Brown comes into his game we’ll need to close with him too. And of course if Ball or Fultz is the real deal we’ll need to close with him too.   We could theoretically still play Crowder at the 4 and close with this:

PG:  Fultz         
SG:  Brown         
SF: Hayward
PF: Crowder
 C: Horford

But Crowder is 6’6 and we are going to have some other options at that spot that may work better in 7’ Zizic, or the 2018 pick - 7’ Ayton or 6’11 Bamba

PG:  Fultz/Ball              PG:  Fultz/Ball           PG:  Fultz/Ball
SG:  Brown         SG: Brown              SG: Brown
SF: Hayward         SF: Hayward      SF: Hayward   
PF:  Ayton/Bamba      PF: Zizic              PF: Another Big from 2017 draft
 C:  Horford         C:  Horford      C:  Horford


So if we don’t start or close with IT, Smart, or Crowder there is no reason to give any of them a big contract.   Even if we don’t sign Hayward we will end up playing Brown over Crowder at SF and still having to move either IT or Smart.  With Smart’s improved offense and his fierce defense, I lean towards Smart.   Our new roster will easily make up for IT’s lost offense.  Brown is really delivering better than expected by many people on this board, myself included, but probably as expected by the coaching staff who clearly liked him a lot.  Assuming our players develop as expected going forward, I see us realistically gravitating to one of these starting and closing lineups:

PG:  Smart/IT         PG: Fultz/Ball               PG: Fultz/Ball
SG:  Fultz                 SG: Brown                 SG: Brown
SF:  Brown         SF: Hayward         SF: Hayward   
PF: Ayton/Bamba      PF: Horford/Zizic       PF: Ayton/Bamba
 C:  Horford/Zizic               C:  Ayton/Bamba      C:  Horford/Zizic

If Zizic turns our to be as good as some people think he is, he can end up replacing the aging Horford. 

The bottom line is that Crowder’s days are numbered no mater what.  Drafting Fultz or Ball and adding Hayward pretty much puts IT and Smart on notice. 

Even drafting Jackson or Tatum and not signing Hayward doesn’t change much as Crowder is still on the outside looking in and either IT or Smart must go:

PG:  Smart         PG: IT            
SG:  Brown         SG: Brown         
SF:  Jackson/Tatum      SF: Jackson/Tatum      
PF: Ayton/Bamba      PF: Ayton/Bamba       
 C:  Horford         C:  Horford         

We will get a top four pick and if that player develops properly Crowder and either IT or Smart are gone.  Sure they could stay on as bench players but all three are good enough to not just start games but also close them, so there will be big money offered to them at free agency that we can’t match.   

As much as people say IT will get the max from Boston, I don’t believe it.  I think the only one out of IT, Smart, and Crowder with a chance to stay on this team long term is Smart.    I think the reason the Butler trade fell through had more to do with including the Brooklyn pick and Smart than it did Crowder.  Some people say IT and Crowder are place holders (I know I do) and some people are mad when people say that, but when you really look at the team gong forward with our roster and picks a lone, not even free agency its clear they are here to provide a competitive fun to watch product until the real players arrive or develop.   

[Smokeeye123]

IT is not getting the max from us. I honestly expect us to trade him to the Pelicans or Mavericks next year for a first or let him walk. I love him but I just don't see it working out.

Horford, Zicic
(Trade/FA), Yabusele
Hayward, Crowder
Brown, Smart
Fultz, Rozier

That looks fine to me. I like the idea of playing Jaylen at guard too, it'll help him develop more of an outside game which will open up the lane to the basket for him. Roster might be a little cleaner if we actually fell to #3 or 4 and drafted Issac or Jackson as a PF but obviously you go with Fultz or Ball if you are in the top 2.

[Emmette Bryant]

here is another analysis by Ryan Bernardoni (dangercart) going over several future scenarios:

https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/839516841705877505

[Chris22]

IT is not getting the max from us. I honestly expect us to trade him to the Pelicans or Mavericks next year for a first or let him walk. I love him but I just don't see it working out.

Horford, Zicic
(Trade/FA), Yabusele
Hayward, Crowder
Brown, Smart
Fultz, Rozier

That looks fine to me. I like the idea of playing Jaylen at guard too, it'll help him develop more of an outside game which will open up the lane to the basket for him. Roster might be a little cleaner if we actually fell to #3 or 4 and drafted Issac or Jackson as a PF but obviously you go with Fultz or Ball if you are in the top 2.

We are going for the championship next year with IT at PG not a rookie.
I think Danny will keep the core intact and sign a FA big.

[KGBirdBias]

To be quite honest I think Ainge will circle back with Durant one more time in 2018. I think he sees by then LeBron will be fading and getting Durant would put this  team over the top.

The future is 2019
PG-Smart\Rozier
SG-Fultz
SF-Brown\Crowder
PF-Durant\Yaba
C-Zizic\Horford

Ayton will be a rookie and Horford will in his last year.

[Csfan1984]

Nah. IT is staying even if C's do draft another guard. Also Crowder is a crazy good player under contract no way C's want to deal him.

[MattyIce]

To be quite honest I think Ainge will circle back with Durant one more time in 2018. I think he sees by then LeBron will be fading and getting Durant would put this  team over the top.

The future is 2019
PG-Smart\Rozier
SG-Fultz
SF-Brown\Crowder
PF-Durant\Yaba
C-Zizic\Horford

Ayton will be a rookie and Horford will in his last year.

I thought the consensus was that KD would decline that second year to be eligible for the 10 year vet salary with GSW, not saying Ainge wouldnt still try to go after KD again but would he have to be able to accomplish it this summer because otherwise KD signs on for an additional 5 years?

[nickagneta]

Horse sh...

it!!! Not buying the OPs scenario at all. It basically play Hayward with rookies and 2nd year players and dump the core that makes this team what it is. Totally not the most likely scenario.

[Denis998]

this is what I see happening,
DA tries to sign max FA within the next two seasons. If hayward or blake comes this summer, DA signs/extends our current for to market value contracts. If no other max FA comes then DA re-signs the guys on expiring contracts and hope one of the draft picks develops into a star.

[playdream]

To be quite honest I think Ainge will circle back with Durant one more time in 2018. I think he sees by then LeBron will be fading and getting Durant would put this  team over the top.

The future is 2019
PG-Smart\Rozier
SG-Fultz
SF-Brown\Crowder
PF-Durant\Yaba
C-Zizic\Horford

Ayton will be a rookie and Horford will in his last year.

Durant is the snake look what he did to the Thunder(and Warrior)
I don't want him

[trickybilly]

To be quite honest I think Ainge will circle back with Durant one more time in 2018. I think he sees by then LeBron will be fading and getting Durant would put this  team over the top.

The future is 2019
PG-Smart\Rozier
SG-Fultz
SF-Brown\Crowder
PF-Durant\Yaba
C-Zizic\Horford

Ayton will be a rookie and Horford will in his last year.

Durant is the snake look what he did to the Thunder(and Warrior)
I don't want him

That is simply ridiculous and you are lying to yourself. If something miraculous happens and he does decide to join us you would be crying with happiness.

[TheSundanceKid]

It's misleading to call this the most likely plan. Plan A perhaps, but the most likely plan, i.e. the one most likely to happen, is we strike out on a free agent, re-sign KO and renegotiate ITs contract.

Let's see how this team does in the playoffs before we so lightly throw our players away. If we make the conference finals with this team, I don't see DA deciding to blow it all up.

[mctyson]

IT is not getting the max from us. I honestly expect us to trade him to the Pelicans or Mavericks next year for a first or let him walk. I love him but I just don't see it working out.

Horford, Zicic
(Trade/FA), Yabusele
Hayward, Crowder
Brown, Smart
Fultz, Rozier

That looks fine to me. I like the idea of playing Jaylen at guard too, it'll help him develop more of an outside game which will open up the lane to the basket for him. Roster might be a little cleaner if we actually fell to #3 or 4 and drafted Issac or Jackson as a PF but obviously you go with Fultz or Ball if you are in the top 2.

Zero chance he is traded with the contract he has.

[Greyman]

I'm not ready to assume we don't keep Bradley. If he stays a Celtic, where does that leave things?

[PAOBoston]

Not buying it. I think DA goes after Hayward hard this summer. Trades Bradley for some big to help. Signs IT to an extension. Keeps the picks and develops the next wave of great C's to replace IT/Horford/Hayward.