My take on Šarić's contract.
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
$2,318,280 $2,422,560 $2,526,840 $3,481,986
Next 3 years he will earn about 8.5 mil$.
Good starters get about 15-17 mil $ per year in the current open market. Solid backups get about 8-12 mil$.
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumorsThis year Šarić is performing a bit better than say Jerebko and his 5 mil$. Let's say Šarić is worth 7/8 mil$ this year. It would mean that he is outperforming his contract by about 5 mil$ this year. A nice boost, although not that tangible ATM for the low payroll team that 76ers are now. Using the same process, pun intended, for the 17/18 season, Šarić will earn 2,4 mil$. Let's assume he will improve his game, sophomores usually do, to a step below a fringe starter level (~40-30 best players at his position), IMO he should outperform his deal for about 10 mil$ that year. Looking further down the road at his 3rd year, 25 y/o, relatively safe to imagine he will be even better as a player, outperforming his deal even more by 12 mil$.
By this account, he will outperform his payroll by ~30$ during this and next 2 years. Not counting in the last year of his contract (probably the most economically attractive one) I agree that this is speculative, but a reasonable projection. Of course, the cap number is the factor that helps to determine the market and we have only projections at this point, 102 and 107 mil$ without 19-20 season projection. Relatively stable.
Avery Bradley will get 8,8 mil$ next year but is worth about 20 mil$ to me, if he is healthy. That's about 12 mil net+. But after next season, unlike Šarić, he will look for a payday, rightfully so. He will get it somewhere. Maybe here, maybe someplace else. But I am confident he will sign in 18/20 mil$ range if injuries avoid him. If we are planning (we are) on being contenders with a couple of Max players within the next 16 months, we will need cheap deals to keep the whole thing sustainable. Crowder and Rookie deals, those can save us. If Crowder gets moved in a deal for a star, I'm not wishing it, than in a vacuum, the Šarić swap would look as a very reasonable thing to do.