Poll

What route should we take if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?

Extend IT; Resign KO and Amir/JJ; Run back this same basic roster the next couple of years
10 (50%)
Shop our vets (specifically IT and Horford) and fully commit to the young core
10 (50%)

Total Members Voted: 20

Author Topic: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?  (Read 3042 times)

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Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2017, 12:05:58 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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My concern is what it says to future free agents if we had Horford for a year and then traded him in a rebuild.

Mike

I think that Grousbeck and Ainge signed Horford to bait the hook for Durant;

the inaction since then speaks volumes about their interest in winning now.

So I doubt they're concerned about any message to future free agents. Besides Stevens' binky Hayward, I doubt they're interested in any of them.
agreed -- Horford was surely an enticement to get Durant to sign here

Disagree -- not overpaying to get a player that likely not have moved the needle in winning a championship does not mean they have no interest in winning this year.  I'm sure they're very interested.  I suspect they're more interested in contending for a number of years rather than just this one.  I don't subscribe to the theory of conceding this year's title to GSW or Cleveland but by the same token, it was going to likely take more than adding Butler or George to this team and if the idea was to add Cousins too, he's not exactly helping out in NO since the trade. 

Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #31 on: March 01, 2017, 12:27:10 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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If we can't get any good free agents this summer I think the C's will
1. Renegotiate and extend IT
2. Trade AB for a big (assuming we add draft a guard)
3. Add a big on 1+1 deal

If we don't add a big time free agent, I could see us taking a small step back when we replace veterans with young players, but long term developing Brown and our Nets pick will pay dividends.
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Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #32 on: March 01, 2017, 01:20:41 PM »

Offline td450

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We can absolutely renegotiate-and-extend IT.  He'll only be eligible for the six-year max, $25.5 million in year 1, which would help maintain long-term flexibility.  We would absolutely be able to keep KO in this situation too -- his cap hold fits in fine with the IT extension.

 It's also not impossible for us to renegotiate and extend Avery, depending on a couple of variables (the draft lottery, if Yab stays abroad one more year).  Say we're able to give AB a $6 million raise next season and sign him to a 5-year deal.  He'd have to get more than 4 years, $77 million in free agency the following year to make turning down such an extension worth it.  That's probably towards the top end of his market value, and he'd likely accept.  This would probably let us keep all three of IT, Smart, and Bradley going forward, as IT and AB would cost about $42 million in 2018 instead of $50 million.  At larger salaries, they'd also be able to bring back more salary on their own in trades, should a younger players begin to usurp a role in the future.

We could only bring back Amir at the room exception.  Ideally we'd actually use it this year, whether or not Amir is willing to take it.

But the team would look largely the same next year, with another top draft pick and Zizic replacing guys like Zeller, Jerebko, and Amir.  I guess Nader gets to come along for the ride too instead of Mickey, and there'd be 1-2 Gerald Greens on the roster.  It's probably a better team than this year, as no major contributors are being lost, and continued growth in players like Smart and Brown create internal improvement.

And it's sustainable, because the next year yet another top pick is added, along with likely Yab and another 1st, and the only guys off the roster are at the true fringes -- min salary players from the prior year.  Depending on how much Olynyk and Smart ultimately get, the team might be in the luxury tax, but only slightly so.  The following year the story is similar, although probably without quite as high a pick, but still potentially 3 1st round picks, again replacing some departed players.  The upside is there for the team, because if Brown becomes that super star, or another draftee does, it will be added to a base 50+ win team.  The current core of this team could remain here for about another 5 years, as the new core is ready to take the baton from them.

Meanwhile, Ainge will still have good salaries to trade whenever an opportunity worth taking arises.
The chances are very very low that Avery signs for that kind of money.  If you browse the 2016 free agent signings, its pretty obvious that paying him $20M/yr would be getting him for a serious home town discount. He's not Evan Turner or Evan Fournier. As long as he doesn't have a major injury before then, he's much closer to Nic Batum or Bradley Beal in market value.

That being said, Ainge will make a trade if he thinks he can get more value back than he is giving up. Otherwise, I'm pretty sure they will take the financial pounding for a year or two, and find out what the youngest assets really are.

If we do nothing and play the string out, the smart play is to trade Bradley or IT on new contracts in 2-3 years. Who we keep will depend on how good the Brooklyn picks turn out. If Fultz or Ball is a budding superstar, we'll know by the end of their second year, and it will probably be IT that has to go. If they are just really good prospects, we'll probably have to trade Bradley. We may even trade both. But I don't think we aren't going to waste either guy to save some money for one or two years.


Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #33 on: March 01, 2017, 01:31:43 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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I think Bradley is the odd man out.  I'd trade him to the West for a first rounder if possible, even in the early to mid 20s.  Like to the Grizzlies for their first rounder (assuming they have one).  We get something for him, open up PT for Smart & Brown and cut $8 million off our books right away.

In any case, I think we will improve it with either Fultz or Jackson, plus bringing over Zizic. 

Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #34 on: March 01, 2017, 01:51:35 PM »

Offline td450

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I think Bradley is the odd man out.  I'd trade him to the West for a first rounder if possible, even in the early to mid 20s.  Like to the Grizzlies for their first rounder (assuming they have one).  We get something for him, open up PT for Smart & Brown and cut $8 million off our books right away.

In any case, I think we will improve it with either Fultz or Jackson, plus bringing over Zizic.
He's the 6th or 7th best 2 guard in the league, he's a model citizen, and he's 26, and you want to dump him for a draft choice that probably won't be good enough to make the team. Really?

Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #35 on: March 01, 2017, 05:06:22 PM »

Offline BaronV

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Pray we snatch Fultz or even Ball with the first pick of the NBA draft, groom either as the PG of the future. Both have enormous potential on both sides of the ball. 

Try to Upgrade scoring, and rebounding through free agency, we need another player that can create his own shot when needed.

It's almost impossible to not upgrade this roster this summer, by just using the assets we have stashed all around the world.

   

There are a few posts in the thread that see the Nets pick as an automatic upgrade.  While it's likely that the player drafted will be much better than the Mickey / Young / Zeller roster spot they'll take, it's not a given.  What if that player goes down early in the season with a major injury ala Randle a couple of years ago or Oden before that?  What if they just can't play at a high level in the NBA like Bennett, who Cleveland drafted #1 a few years ago.  What if they just stink like Darko or Candyman, who were both high picks? Even if they are good, will they impact next season significantly, or will they come off the bench sparingly as they learn the NBA game and Brad's system? 

I think a trade of that pick for an established player is much more likely to improve next year's roster.  The high pick, if they turn out to be a star-caliber NBA player, will have a much more significant long-term impact though. 
those are pretty poor examples since none of them were projected to be taken where they were actually selected.   

At worst we're looking at a top 4 pick and more likely top 3 in a draft where the top 3 are considered really top quality prospects.  I'm not worried about Danny ending up with a stiff if he takes any of those 3 players.  I think it's fair to say that no matter who he selects, they'll be much better than the person they replace on the roster as soon as they hit the court. 

A trade should net us at least an all-star that would have a bigger impact on the team however the same concern you expressed over a draft pick being injured also applies to that all-star -- injuries happen to anyone.  that's not much of a reason to take a vet over a rookie

How about Embiid or Simmons then... are those better examples?  Neither made any impact at all on their team in the year they were drafted due to injury, and both were consensus #1 picks. Both are likely to be good players long term, but no immediate impact.  How about Okafor, who the Sixers aren't playing and can't even manage to trade after drafting him in a top spot? 

With regard to injury, that's not what I meant by my 2nd paragraph.  I was replying to the original question of a roster upgrade this coming year, and stated that I thought adding a vet was more of a sure thing than a high draft pick to upgrade the roster, which I think you agreed with in your response.  Sure, a vet could also get hurt, but they're less likely to be overhyped and unable to contribute right away.  As I said, the draft pick is probably a better long term option for the team, and I think that's where Danny and ownership's minds are.  But for next year, as per the original question, I think the chances of a rookie coming in and being a major upgrade are low vs. the chances that bringing on a veteran would be. 


Re: What happens if we don't upgrade the roster this summer?
« Reply #36 on: March 01, 2017, 09:13:22 PM »

Offline Coast2Coast

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How could we not upgrade the roster this summer?
We have the Brooklyn pick and FA money.
Plus, we have players we could trade.

Yup, we're an offseason away from being the #1 seed in the East and top 3 team in the league.

Free agent signing, young core developing further, Zizic and BKN17.

Boom. Nice work front office and CBS.