If This Team Doesn't Make It Past The First Round, What Should Ainge Do?

[SHAQATTACK]

Draft Fultz no matter what

[Moranis]

I doubt it will make sense to pay to keep both Bradley and Isaiah, especially if the team also holds onto Smart and drafts Ball or Fultz.

That said, I think it will probably make sense to re-sign Isaiah, because as Boris said, culture and identity matters, and it will be very, very difficult to replace him.  I think it'll also kind of damage the good vibes around the team if they let Isaiah walk after he turned into a superstar and the heart and soul of the team within a year after they traded for him.

maybe, but how good will the good vibes be if Boston flames out in the 1st round again (and presumably Thomas has a bad series in the process). 

Boston is nearing that cross roads where it has to decide what it wants to be.  You can only have and eat your cake for so long before you run out of cake.  I believe this summer is that point.

Why?

I've posed this question before, but imagine that three years from now, the team has the following:


Isaiah, on a max deal.

Horford, on a max deal.

Crowder, still making peanuts relative to his value.

Smart, making 15 million a year.

Brown, on a rookie deal.

Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Monk/Tatum, on a rookie deal.

2018 Nets pick, on a rookie deal

Zizic, on a rookie deal

Yabu, on a rookie deal


What's so terrible about that?  Imagine as well what Ainge might be able to get at the trade deadline a year from now by packaging Avery Bradley (expiring), Kelly Olynyk (making ~$12 million / year) and non-BRK 1st rounder or two.


I really don't see the problem with ending up with the team described above.  Would they be a bit of a mish-mash of declining vets (IT, Crowder, Horford) and not-there-yet young guys?  Yes.  Would the team be locked into long-term mediocrity or stuck at the bottom of the league with no way out?  Heck no!


Even if Isaiah is in rapid decline and Horford is in full-on role player status, you'd still have Smart, Brown, 2017 Nets, 2018 Nets, Zizic, Yabu, and perhaps Rozier or one or two other rookie contract guys as your young / developing core.  I am pretty sure that will be a better group than most of the "rebuilding" teams in the league at that point.

I really don't see the urgency you see.


You know what would be terrible?

If Ainge were to go all-in on a guy like George or Boogie, only to have that guy depart for glitzier pastures in free agency after a year or two, and then let Isaiah go along with them because "He's not good enough to carry the team to a championship," or whatever.

Young players need minutes to reach their full potential.  They need to be able to learn from mistakes.  Fultz isn't going to get those minutes if he is playing behind Thomas and Smart (and maybe Bradley and Brown).  Brown isn't going to fully develop if he is playing behind Crowder (though given his contract I have no issue with keeping Crowder).  If a Thomas and Horford led team isn't going to be a contender, then why lock in the money that then can't be used on acquiring pieces that you know could actually be a contender.  Sure Boston won't be paying a crazy tax in your scenario, but it also won't have room for free agents that might otherwise want to come to Boston.  Heck, Boston might even be able to generate enough room to potentially lure multiple free agents (like last summer nearly came to be).  Additionally, there is no guarantee that Brown, the 17 or 18 BKN picks actually end up as franchise players.  If you maximize your chances by trading vets for future assets and thus also increasing your own draft position, you will end up with a lot more chances to acquire the game changing pieces that might actually lead your team to a title. 

If Boston doesn't become a legit contender this summer, then it should start to sell off pieces.  You can't just keep plodding along in the status quo because it hurts the ultimate goal of winning a championship.  Boston needs to move in a direction.  I don't really care what that direction is, it just needs to pick one and go for it.

[Banner18now!]

Be in a lot of trade talks with nothing materializing. Stand pat basically and talk about all the assets. 

[Banner18now!]

And as it constitutes right now they are not getting out of the first round. Atlanta, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are all better teams so they will have to face one of them in the first round. We just have to come to terms Ainge threw the towel in on this year and as tough as that is it's probably the right choice to get the pieces together on the type of team he wants to build over the next couple of years. The rest of the season is all about Brown and some of the young players improving for next year.

[oldtype]

And as it constitutes right now they are not getting out of the first round. Atlanta, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are all better teams so they will have to face one of them in the first round.

It is extremely unlikely that we will face any of those teams in the first round.

[Moranis]

And as it constitutes right now they are not getting out of the first round. Atlanta, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are all better teams so they will have to face one of them in the first round.

It is extremely unlikely that we will face any of those teams in the first round.

Boston is only 2 games ahead of Toronto for the 4th seed.  If it gets caught by Washington and Toronto then it will play Atlanta in the 1st round. 

[oldtype]

And as it constitutes right now they are not getting out of the first round. Atlanta, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are all better teams so they will have to face one of them in the first round.

It is extremely unlikely that we will face any of those teams in the first round.

Boston is only 2 games ahead of Toronto for the 4th seed.  If it gets caught by Washington and Toronto then it will play Atlanta in the 1st round.

I don't consider getting caught by both Washington and Toronto particularly likely.  2 games go a long way when you're looking at 50-win teams with only 20 or so games left.

Besides, Atlanta isn't better, Monday's loss notwithstanding.

[footey]

We are in a shooting rut at the moment, but I expect us to dig out and go on another winning streak soon.

Hoping it starts tonight!!

[Moranis]

And as it constitutes right now they are not getting out of the first round. Atlanta, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are all better teams so they will have to face one of them in the first round.

It is extremely unlikely that we will face any of those teams in the first round.

Boston is only 2 games ahead of Toronto for the 4th seed.  If it gets caught by Washington and Toronto then it will play Atlanta in the 1st round.

I don't consider getting caught by both Washington and Toronto particularly likely.  2 games go a long way when you're looking at 50-win teams with only 20 or so games left.

Besides, Atlanta isn't better, Monday's loss notwithstanding.

I have no idea what will happen in a series between Atlanta and Boston, but I do know Schroder is the type of PG that can cause Thomas problems and Boston can't effectively guard Millsap and Howard.  I'd feel pretty uncomfortable going into that series if that is Boston's matchup. 

[nickagneta]

I doubt it will make sense to pay to keep both Bradley and Isaiah, especially if the team also holds onto Smart and drafts Ball or Fultz.

That said, I think it will probably make sense to re-sign Isaiah, because as Boris said, culture and identity matters, and it will be very, very difficult to replace him.  I think it'll also kind of damage the good vibes around the team if they let Isaiah walk after he turned into a superstar and the heart and soul of the team within a year after they traded for him.

maybe, but how good will the good vibes be if Boston flames out in the 1st round again (and presumably Thomas has a bad series in the process). 

Boston is nearing that cross roads where it has to decide what it wants to be.  You can only have and eat your cake for so long before you run out of cake.  I believe this summer is that point.

Why?

I've posed this question before, but imagine that three years from now, the team has the following:


Isaiah, on a max deal.

Horford, on a max deal.

Crowder, still making peanuts relative to his value.

Smart, making 15 million a year.

Brown, on a rookie deal.

Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Monk/Tatum, on a rookie deal.

2018 Nets pick, on a rookie deal

Zizic, on a rookie deal

Yabu, on a rookie deal


What's so terrible about that?  Imagine as well what Ainge might be able to get at the trade deadline a year from now by packaging Avery Bradley (expiring), Kelly Olynyk (making ~$12 million / year) and non-BRK 1st rounder or two.


I really don't see the problem with ending up with the team described above.  Would they be a bit of a mish-mash of declining vets (IT, Crowder, Horford) and not-there-yet young guys?  Yes.  Would the team be locked into long-term mediocrity or stuck at the bottom of the league with no way out?  Heck no!


Even if Isaiah is in rapid decline and Horford is in full-on role player status, you'd still have Smart, Brown, 2017 Nets, 2018 Nets, Zizic, Yabu, and perhaps Rozier or one or two other rookie contract guys as your young / developing core.  I am pretty sure that will be a better group than most of the "rebuilding" teams in the league at that point.

I really don't see the urgency you see.


You know what would be terrible?

If Ainge were to go all-in on a guy like George or Boogie, only to have that guy depart for glitzier pastures in free agency after a year or two, and then let Isaiah go along with them because "He's not good enough to carry the team to a championship," or whatever.

Young players need minutes to reach their full potential.  They need to be able to learn from mistakes.  Fultz isn't going to get those minutes if he is playing behind Thomas and Smart (and maybe Bradley and Brown).  Brown isn't going to fully develop if he is playing behind Crowder (though given his contract I have no issue with keeping Crowder).  If a Thomas and Horford led team isn't going to be a contender, then why lock in the money that then can't be used on acquiring pieces that you know could actually be a contender.  Sure Boston won't be paying a crazy tax in your scenario, but it also won't have room for free agents that might otherwise want to come to Boston.  Heck, Boston might even be able to generate enough room to potentially lure multiple free agents (like last summer nearly came to be).  Additionally, there is no guarantee that Brown, the 17 or 18 BKN picks actually end up as franchise players.  If you maximize your chances by trading vets for future assets and thus also increasing your own draft position, you will end up with a lot more chances to acquire the game changing pieces that might actually lead your team to a title. 

If Boston doesn't become a legit contender this summer, then it should start to sell off pieces.  You can't just keep plodding along in the status quo because it hurts the ultimate goal of winning a championship.  Boston needs to move in a direction.  I don't really care what that direction is, it just needs to pick one and go for it.

Disagree completely. Think this whole black and white decision making that pervades this board about what direction the Celtics have to take either trade youth for stars and try to contend now or else trade off the vets and build with only youth is, quite simply, stupid. There are shades of grey and Danny is managing in that area, which is the best area to manage from.

There is simply no reason any result in the playoffs should effect what he does moving this team forward. None. And there is no reason to have some self imposed timetable as to when to blow this team up to build with youth. None. The entire concept is short sighted, poor in its concept from a business perspective and reeks of immature fantasy basketball/2K17 thinking.

Ainge needs to manage his cap effectively. He needs to keep the vets that are productive and who can be great influence to the youth. Develop the youth. And continue to make excellent trades that move the team forward. And he can do it slowly because he has an unprecedented pipeline to elite draft picks for the next couple of years.

He can have his cake and eat it too, unlike just about any other franchise in the association.

[moiso]

I doubt it will make sense to pay to keep both Bradley and Isaiah, especially if the team also holds onto Smart and drafts Ball or Fultz.

That said, I think it will probably make sense to re-sign Isaiah, because as Boris said, culture and identity matters, and it will be very, very difficult to replace him.  I think it'll also kind of damage the good vibes around the team if they let Isaiah walk after he turned into a superstar and the heart and soul of the team within a year after they traded for him.

maybe, but how good will the good vibes be if Boston flames out in the 1st round again (and presumably Thomas has a bad series in the process). 

Boston is nearing that cross roads where it has to decide what it wants to be.  You can only have and eat your cake for so long before you run out of cake.  I believe this summer is that point.

Why?

I've posed this question before, but imagine that three years from now, the team has the following:


Isaiah, on a max deal.

Horford, on a max deal.

Crowder, still making peanuts relative to his value.

Smart, making 15 million a year.

Brown, on a rookie deal.

Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Monk/Tatum, on a rookie deal.

2018 Nets pick, on a rookie deal

Zizic, on a rookie deal

Yabu, on a rookie deal


What's so terrible about that?  Imagine as well what Ainge might be able to get at the trade deadline a year from now by packaging Avery Bradley (expiring), Kelly Olynyk (making ~$12 million / year) and non-BRK 1st rounder or two.


I really don't see the problem with ending up with the team described above.  Would they be a bit of a mish-mash of declining vets (IT, Crowder, Horford) and not-there-yet young guys?  Yes.  Would the team be locked into long-term mediocrity or stuck at the bottom of the league with no way out?  Heck no!


Even if Isaiah is in rapid decline and Horford is in full-on role player status, you'd still have Smart, Brown, 2017 Nets, 2018 Nets, Zizic, Yabu, and perhaps Rozier or one or two other rookie contract guys as your young / developing core.  I am pretty sure that will be a better group than most of the "rebuilding" teams in the league at that point.

I really don't see the urgency you see.


You know what would be terrible?

If Ainge were to go all-in on a guy like George or Boogie, only to have that guy depart for glitzier pastures in free agency after a year or two, and then let Isaiah go along with them because "He's not good enough to carry the team to a championship," or whatever.

Young players need minutes to reach their full potential.  They need to be able to learn from mistakes.  Fultz isn't going to get those minutes if he is playing behind Thomas and Smart (and maybe Bradley and Brown).  Brown isn't going to fully develop if he is playing behind Crowder (though given his contract I have no issue with keeping Crowder).  If a Thomas and Horford led team isn't going to be a contender, then why lock in the money that then can't be used on acquiring pieces that you know could actually be a contender.  Sure Boston won't be paying a crazy tax in your scenario, but it also won't have room for free agents that might otherwise want to come to Boston.  Heck, Boston might even be able to generate enough room to potentially lure multiple free agents (like last summer nearly came to be).  Additionally, there is no guarantee that Brown, the 17 or 18 BKN picks actually end up as franchise players.  If you maximize your chances by trading vets for future assets and thus also increasing your own draft position, you will end up with a lot more chances to acquire the game changing pieces that might actually lead your team to a title. 

If Boston doesn't become a legit contender this summer, then it should start to sell off pieces.  You can't just keep plodding along in the status quo because it hurts the ultimate goal of winning a championship.  Boston needs to move in a direction.  I don't really care what that direction is, it just needs to pick one and go for it.

Disagree completely. Think this whole black and white decision making that pervades this board about what direction the Celtics have to take either trade youth for stars and try to contend now or else trade off the vets and build with only youth is, quite simply, stupid. There are shades of grey and Danny is managing in that area, which is the best area to manage from.

There is simply no reason any result in the playoffs should effect what he does moving this team forward. None. And there is no reason to have some self imposed timetable as to when to blow this team up to build with youth. None. The entire concept is short sighted, poor in its concept from a business perspective and reeks of immature fantasy basketball/2K17 thinking.

Ainge needs to manage his cap effectively. He needs to keep the vets that are productive and who can be great influence to the youth. Develop the youth. And continue to make excellent trades that move the team forward. And he can do it slowly because he has an unprecedented pipeline to elite draft picks for the next couple of years.

He can have his cake and eat it too, unlike just about any other franchise in the association.

TP for that.

[oldtype]

And as it constitutes right now they are not getting out of the first round. Atlanta, Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto are all better teams so they will have to face one of them in the first round.

It is extremely unlikely that we will face any of those teams in the first round.

Boston is only 2 games ahead of Toronto for the 4th seed.  If it gets caught by Washington and Toronto then it will play Atlanta in the 1st round.

I don't consider getting caught by both Washington and Toronto particularly likely.  2 games go a long way when you're looking at 50-win teams with only 20 or so games left.

Besides, Atlanta isn't better, Monday's loss notwithstanding.

I have no idea what will happen in a series between Atlanta and Boston, but I do know Schroder is the type of PG that can cause Thomas problems and Boston can't effectively guard Millsap and Howard.  I'd feel pretty uncomfortable going into that series if that is Boston's matchup.

I don't know what "the type of PG that can cause Thomas problems" is, (If we're talking defense, the answer is probably "any PG") and there's no reason why guarding Milsap and Howard would be more difficult other than the fact that they're good players.  We don't automatically lose to teams with good players.

I'd rather have any other of the bottom-half teams than Atlanta because they're better than whoever is going to end up 6, 7 or 8, but there's no specific reason why they'd be a particularly bad matchup. 

[Moranis]

I doubt it will make sense to pay to keep both Bradley and Isaiah, especially if the team also holds onto Smart and drafts Ball or Fultz.

That said, I think it will probably make sense to re-sign Isaiah, because as Boris said, culture and identity matters, and it will be very, very difficult to replace him.  I think it'll also kind of damage the good vibes around the team if they let Isaiah walk after he turned into a superstar and the heart and soul of the team within a year after they traded for him.

maybe, but how good will the good vibes be if Boston flames out in the 1st round again (and presumably Thomas has a bad series in the process). 

Boston is nearing that cross roads where it has to decide what it wants to be.  You can only have and eat your cake for so long before you run out of cake.  I believe this summer is that point.

Why?

I've posed this question before, but imagine that three years from now, the team has the following:


Isaiah, on a max deal.

Horford, on a max deal.

Crowder, still making peanuts relative to his value.

Smart, making 15 million a year.

Brown, on a rookie deal.

Fultz/Ball/Jackson/Monk/Tatum, on a rookie deal.

2018 Nets pick, on a rookie deal

Zizic, on a rookie deal

Yabu, on a rookie deal


What's so terrible about that?  Imagine as well what Ainge might be able to get at the trade deadline a year from now by packaging Avery Bradley (expiring), Kelly Olynyk (making ~$12 million / year) and non-BRK 1st rounder or two.


I really don't see the problem with ending up with the team described above.  Would they be a bit of a mish-mash of declining vets (IT, Crowder, Horford) and not-there-yet young guys?  Yes.  Would the team be locked into long-term mediocrity or stuck at the bottom of the league with no way out?  Heck no!


Even if Isaiah is in rapid decline and Horford is in full-on role player status, you'd still have Smart, Brown, 2017 Nets, 2018 Nets, Zizic, Yabu, and perhaps Rozier or one or two other rookie contract guys as your young / developing core.  I am pretty sure that will be a better group than most of the "rebuilding" teams in the league at that point.

I really don't see the urgency you see.


You know what would be terrible?

If Ainge were to go all-in on a guy like George or Boogie, only to have that guy depart for glitzier pastures in free agency after a year or two, and then let Isaiah go along with them because "He's not good enough to carry the team to a championship," or whatever.

Young players need minutes to reach their full potential.  They need to be able to learn from mistakes.  Fultz isn't going to get those minutes if he is playing behind Thomas and Smart (and maybe Bradley and Brown).  Brown isn't going to fully develop if he is playing behind Crowder (though given his contract I have no issue with keeping Crowder).  If a Thomas and Horford led team isn't going to be a contender, then why lock in the money that then can't be used on acquiring pieces that you know could actually be a contender.  Sure Boston won't be paying a crazy tax in your scenario, but it also won't have room for free agents that might otherwise want to come to Boston.  Heck, Boston might even be able to generate enough room to potentially lure multiple free agents (like last summer nearly came to be).  Additionally, there is no guarantee that Brown, the 17 or 18 BKN picks actually end up as franchise players.  If you maximize your chances by trading vets for future assets and thus also increasing your own draft position, you will end up with a lot more chances to acquire the game changing pieces that might actually lead your team to a title. 

If Boston doesn't become a legit contender this summer, then it should start to sell off pieces.  You can't just keep plodding along in the status quo because it hurts the ultimate goal of winning a championship.  Boston needs to move in a direction.  I don't really care what that direction is, it just needs to pick one and go for it.

Disagree completely. Think this whole black and white decision making that pervades this board about what direction the Celtics have to take either trade youth for stars and try to contend now or else trade off the vets and build with only youth is, quite simply, stupid. There are shades of grey and Danny is managing in that area, which is the best area to manage from.

There is simply no reason any result in the playoffs should effect what he does moving this team forward. None. And there is no reason to have some self imposed timetable as to when to blow this team up to build with youth. None. The entire concept is short sighted, poor in its concept from a business perspective and reeks of immature fantasy basketball/2K17 thinking.

Ainge needs to manage his cap effectively. He needs to keep the vets that are productive and who can be great influence to the youth. Develop the youth. And continue to make excellent trades that move the team forward. And he can do it slowly because he has an unprecedented pipeline to elite draft picks for the next couple of years.

He can have his cake and eat it too, unlike just about any other franchise in the association.

My comments have nothing to do with the success of the team this coming post-season, though the success (or lack thereof) of the team certainly could play a role in the direction Ainge elects to go.  I've been pretty consistent on this, that you can do what the Celtics are doing for only so long before it comes a long term detriment.  I believe that tipping point is this summer, though could probably be persuaded it is actually next year at the trade deadline.  Either Boston is going to become a contender with the current core, or it is not, and if it is not then there is absolutely no point in harming the long term potential of the young players, by keeping around veterans at huge money that do nothing more than take developmental minutes from those same young guys.  Look at how much Brown has improved with Bradley out.  How is a guy like Fultz going to get any minutes if he is behind Thomas, Smart, Bradley, and Brown on the depth chart?  You have to give young guys as many minutes as they can handle so they actually become the players you hope they will be.  This isn't football where a QB watches and learns for two years and then comes in and plays and plays well.  Basketball players need to play to reach their potential.

[PhoSita]

I agree that it's important for young players to get some playing time, at least when you're talking about talented prospects who you expect to one day play a big role.

I disagree that they necessarily need more than 15-20 minutes in a reserve role, especially when we're talking about 19-20 year-olds who were only in college for one year.

As long as we're not in a situation where we have a guy we selected in the top 5 playing in the D-League because there's no room for him in the rotation, I'm not too worried about it.


If the IT / Horford / Crowder / Bradley group were struggling to stay above .500, I would probably feel differently.  That's mediocrity, and I have no interest in watching veterans scrape for 41 wins and a first round drubbing.

That's not the team we have, though.  The Celts are on pace to win 50+ and will have a real shot at winning a playoff series.  Brad Stevens, for all the praise we heap upon him, has yet to win a playoff series.  Isaiah Thomas, two time All-Star, has yet to win a playoff series.

I'd like to see the team win a playoff series.

There are goals worth pursuing below the ultimate goal of winning a title.  I'm happy to see the Celts pursue those goals so long as it doesn't get in the way of having chances to build a sustainable, talented group that might contend at some point in the future.

Thankfully, because of the Nets trade, the Celts can do exactly that.

There's no harm in watching Isaiah, Horford and Co. see what they can accomplish for a few years while we wait for Smart, Brown, Nets picks, etc to get fully seasoned and ready to take the helm.

There's no harm in not giving the keys to the franchise to the young guys until they are 24/25/26 years old.  Indeed, take a look at the Wolves -- you're not necessarily going anywhere with a core comprised entirely of guys in their early 20s, no matter how talented they are.

[oldtype]

Goes without saying, but force-feeding minutes is a terrible way to develop youth.  Young players need to be 1) gradually given time to settle into a system; and 2) learn that minutes are earned, not just handed out on the basis of how high you were drafted.

Look at Smart if you want a good example of Brad's developmental philosophy.  His rookie season, his role was "defend and stand in the corner on offense."  His sophomore year, he starts getting the ball a bit more (with mixed results.)  This year he's finally getting a decent helping of primary playmaking duties, as well as having some offensive sets being drawn up for him in the post.  It's not simply a matter of his minutes increasing: his role evolves every year as well.

I expect Brown and whoever we draft this year will follow similar trajectories.  We're a team that has the luxury of being able to ease these guys into roles rather than throw them in the deep end.