Author Topic: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league  (Read 11692 times)

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Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #60 on: February 26, 2017, 10:35:36 PM »

Offline Eja117

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As much as I hate his contract I'm not sure it's even the worst on the team.

Horford at 25 or Amir at 12? Or Ty Zeller at 8?

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #61 on: February 26, 2017, 10:36:59 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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The biggest issue I have with Horford is, why isnt he scoring 20 plus a game on a daily basis

Pnr ,  and just stands there, hey IT4 go to work

Why doesnt he take his man off the dribble more.  Fake the hand off to IT4 and shoot the 3 more etc

Make some clutch shots instead of just being happy to pass the ball
thats not his game.

He is a flow of the offense guy.

Then he should be making 'flow of the offense guy' type money

Not max

Because max salaries exist, really good flow of the offense guys get the max.
TP.

The most underpaid guys in this league are max guys. al Horford is not an underpaid max guy. IMO he is an overpaid one, but Id value his production at ~24 mil. Instead hes getting more. Thats the price youve gotta pay to drag a guy away from the team hes been with his whole career. He makes us better, he grants us legitimacy, he makes everyone better (Isaiah, jae, and Avery all having career years by huge margins) and he gives us our first legit big since KG.

His contract was a necessary evil. Look at what bigs get around the league.

Its a bummer that hes not a go to guy. It really is, but we knew coming in that that wasnt Big Al's game.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #62 on: February 26, 2017, 10:38:30 PM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

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Nope.

He hasn't shot the ball well as of late but I believe he'll pick it up soon.

If we nit-pick the box scores we'd be hard-pressed to find it empty of something for Al because he does do many things well - just the kind of big we need AND Coach Brad Stevens likes.

And in other news - the one big that most of us coveted picked up his 18th tech - and unless it's rescinded he will have to sit out ANOTHER game right in the midst of NO trying to make a playoff run.

I "still" love Cousins, but Big Al is HERE - with US. He's reliable and multi-talented. He will be fine.

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #63 on: February 26, 2017, 10:39:43 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Picking up Horford has made us a better team. The cost was a max contract, which we could afford.

The issue becomes IT4 should get max, why should AB not be paid the same as Horford?  Etc

And agents will argue

Pay the correct players max money ... then it all makes sense

Your best player should get max(consistency, production clutch).... Why should a 'flow of the guy ' be paid max? Its like a manager being paid more than a vice president.

Because there is a max.

Exactly.  There are two basic types of max players: the "Oh wow you should be making twice what you are, but you can't" guys like Lebron, Durant, Curry, etc., and the "Yeah, that money seems about right" guys like Horford or Millsap.  The issue is that people look at group 1 and think "The guys in group 2 aren't worth as much as them! They should be getting less!", when the reality is that the guys in group 1 should be getting more, but they can't.  Hopefully "supermax" contracts will start to make the distinction more clear

And for some perspective, Al's current $25 million salary is the equivalent of just under $20 million last year or just under $18 million in 2014-15.  Looking at the raw salary number doesn't tell the whole story (or even most of it, really)
I'm bitter.

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #64 on: February 26, 2017, 10:40:46 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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As much as I hate his contract I'm not sure it's even the worst on the team.

Horford at 25 or Amir at 12? Or Ty Zeller at 8?
Amir is not good, but with the going rate for big men at the moment, 12 mil is good value. Plus that was a 1+1 team option thing(or nongarunteed IDK). Zellers is the same way which makes him really valuable in matching money for trades.

Again, what was the alternative?

Amir and Zeller were both very wise contracts even if the dollar amount doesnt look good.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #65 on: February 26, 2017, 10:47:02 PM »

Offline max215

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The biggest issue I have with Horford is, why isnt he scoring 20 plus a game on a daily basis

Pnr ,  and just stands there, hey IT4 go to work

Why doesnt he take his man off the dribble more.  Fake the hand off to IT4 and shoot the 3 more etc

Make some clutch shots instead of just being happy to pass the ball
thats not his game.

He is a flow of the offense guy.

Then he should be making 'flow of the offense guy' type money

Not max

Because max salaries exist, really good flow of the offense guys get the max.
TP.

The most underpaid guys in this league are max guys. al Horford is not an underpaid max guy. IMO he is an overpaid one, but Id value his production at ~24 mil. Instead hes getting more. Thats the price youve gotta pay to drag a guy away from the team hes been with his whole career. He makes us better, he grants us legitimacy, he makes everyone better (Isaiah, jae, and Avery all having career years by huge margins) and he gives us our first legit big since KG.

His contract was a necessary evil. Look at what bigs get around the league.

Its a bummer that hes not a go to guy. It really is, but we knew coming in that that wasnt Big Al's game.

Right back at you. I have a slightly more favorable view of Horford's contract, but I agree for the most part. He's helped a lot on the court (transformed our offense), and his impact on our reputation, our perception as a legitimate force on the court and in free agency, cannot be overstated.
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Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #66 on: February 26, 2017, 10:48:30 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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The biggest issue I have with Horford is, why isnt he scoring 20 plus a game on a daily basis

Pnr ,  and just stands there, hey IT4 go to work

Why doesnt he take his man off the dribble more.  Fake the hand off to IT4 and shoot the 3 more etc

Make some clutch shots instead of just being happy to pass the ball
thats not his game.

He is a flow of the offense guy.

Then he should be making 'flow of the offense guy' type money

Not max

Because max salaries exist, really good flow of the offense guys get the max.
TP.

The most underpaid guys in this league are max guys. al Horford is not an underpaid max guy. IMO he is an overpaid one, but Id value his production at ~24 mil. Instead hes getting more. Thats the price youve gotta pay to drag a guy away from the team hes been with his whole career. He makes us better, he grants us legitimacy, he makes everyone better (Isaiah, jae, and Avery all having career years by huge margins) and he gives us our first legit big since KG.

His contract was a necessary evil. Look at what bigs get around the league.

Its a bummer that hes not a go to guy. It really is, but we knew coming in that that wasnt Big Al's game.

I would have little to no issues to pay max money to 'not a go to guy'  like Marcus Smart

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #67 on: February 26, 2017, 10:48:34 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Horford is not the worst contract in the NBA and certainly not in the history of the game. Those saying so obviously do not know what they are talking about. Is Horford making more than his on court production...probably, but that's hard to quantify without looking at a couple of factors like overall team efficiency on both ends of the court, the team's record as compared to last year, and the team record this year when he plays versus when he didn't. Taking all those factors into consideration, Horford is probably earning slightly too much.

But if you wanted to add Al, his stats and all his leadership and intangibles on the court, in the locker room and behind the scenes, you had to pay him the max in last year's free agent market. You can't try to lure the best free agents available on the market by penny pinching them over raw stats. Do that and you will never attract free agents that matter. Horford earns some of that money by being a team ambassador, recruiter of other top talent and an example that this organization is willing to spend for top tier talent.

When I take all those other factors into consideration, IMO, Horford becomes a high value contract.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 11:03:03 PM by nickagneta »

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #68 on: February 26, 2017, 10:48:49 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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Asik, Noah, Deng, Mozgov, etc. Plenty of worse contracts out there. In a few years it could get ugly, but right now his spacing has been a big reason for IT's season.

Plus, what else are you going to spend the money on?

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #69 on: February 26, 2017, 10:50:14 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Let's have some perspective.  According to ESPN, Horford is 7th among centers in scoring, 5th in 3PM, 4th in 2PT%, 8th in blocks and 1st in assists (and first in assist to turnover ratio).

He's a very effective player.

How updated are those stats?  I bet they are a little dated.  He has been absolutely HORRIBLE the last five games.  Horrible.  There is NO spinning this Roy!!!   He is in a MAJOR SLUMP and he needs to snap out of it very soon.

Smitty77
His contract is not for 5 games.

An you are the one spinning, not Roy.

I think that Roy can protect himself.  Are you his big brother or something?:-)))  Gosh, thanks for telling me that.  I had NO idea!!  Sadly we will be paying him an average of around $29 million per year for the next three years AFTER this year:-(((((

He had a 17.5 PER BEFORE shooting 2-11 tonight and 0-3 from three.  That is NOT $27 worth of production no matter how you guys try to spin it.

Can you all ADMIT that he is in a slump???????

Smitty77
I don't care about slumps in any sport. I care about overall performance. I don't look for small sample sizes to get me excited.

How about a FIVE YEAR sample of his PER by year starting with this year going back 4 more years??

17.49
19.50
21.40
22.10
19.80

I expect about a 20 PER for $27 million personally and I KNOW that Al can deliver that!!!!

Smitty77

Per isn't a good stat to measure a guy who's impact isn't always on the stat sheet.  It's also not a good way to measure how good anyone is (unless you feel that Javale McGee is a top 20 player in the league, but even McGee himself doesn't think that). It measures efficiency and statistical impact, but misses intangibles and defense, while also prioritizing volume scoring over efficiency.  It's not a very good catch-all statistic
I'm bitter.

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2017, 10:54:08 PM »

Offline max215

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Asik, Noah, Deng, Mozgov, etc. Plenty of worse contracts out there. In a few years it could get ugly, but right now his spacing has been a big reason for IT's season.

Plus, what else are you going to spend the money on?

This is, perhaps, the most compelling question. The answer is either nothing or a contract that is worse than Horford's. I don't see how either of those is preferable.
Isaiah, you were lightning in a bottle.

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Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2017, 11:00:48 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Sigh this is an embarrassing thread

Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2017, 11:00:57 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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Let's have some perspective.  According to ESPN, Horford is 7th among centers in scoring, 5th in 3PM, 4th in 2PT%, 8th in blocks and 1st in assists (and first in assist to turnover ratio).

He's a very effective player.

How updated are those stats?  I bet they are a little dated.  He has been absolutely HORRIBLE the last five games.  Horrible.  There is NO spinning this Roy!!!   He is in a MAJOR SLUMP and he needs to snap out of it very soon.

Smitty77
His contract is not for 5 games.

An you are the one spinning, not Roy.

I think that Roy can protect himself.  Are you his big brother or something?:-)))  Gosh, thanks for telling me that.  I had NO idea!!  Sadly we will be paying him an average of around $29 million per year for the next three years AFTER this year:-(((((

He had a 17.5 PER BEFORE shooting 2-11 tonight and 0-3 from three.  That is NOT $27 worth of production no matter how you guys try to spin it.

Can you all ADMIT that he is in a slump???????

Smitty77
I don't care about slumps in any sport. I care about overall performance. I don't look for small sample sizes to get me excited.

How about a FIVE YEAR sample of his PER by year starting with this year going back 4 more years??

17.49
19.50
21.40
22.10
19.80

I expect about a 20 PER for $27 million personally and I KNOW that Al can deliver that!!!!

Smitty77

Per isn't a good stat to measure a guy who's impact isn't always on the stat sheet.  It's also not a good way to measure how good anyone is (unless you feel that Javale McGee is a top 20 player in the league, but even McGee himself doesn't think that). It measures efficiency and statistical impact, but misses intangibles and defense, while also prioritizing volume scoring over efficiency.  It's not a very good catch-all statistic

McGee is 102nd in RPM if that counts for anything, but he is only 186th in WINS.  Horford is 44th in RPM and 45 in WINS.  Even using ESPN's real plus minus, it does NOT justify Horford's max deal.  I bet Atlanta is smiling about now.

Smitty77


Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2017, 11:03:56 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Here are the other deals signed last summer:

Evan Turner, 4 years/$70 million
Timofey Mozgov, 4 year/$64 million
Solomon Hill, 4 year/$50 million
Joakim Noah, 4 years/$70 million
Tyler Johnson, 4 years/$50 million
Bismack Biyombo, 4 years/$72 million
Nic Batum, 5 years/$120 million
Chandler Parsons, 4 years/$94 million
Evan Fournier, 4 years/$85 million
Ryan Anderson, 4 years/$80 million
Alan Crabbe, 4 years/$75 million
Kent Bazemore, 4 years/$70 million
Ian Mahinmi, 4 years/$64 million
Luol Deng, 4 years/$70 million
Harrison Barnes, 4 years/$94 million
Dwight Howard, 3 years/$70 million

Just to be clear, this is the list of free agents who signed for more than $60 million, and also signed with a new team or were otherwise a reasonable target. (So, I'm not counting Drummond, Beal, Derozan, Conley and Whiteside who re-signed for the max with their current teams...).

So, this is the market. That is the full set of comparable contracts based on what teams are willing to pay in open bidding in the new world of the 2016 CBA.

Now, anyone who is dissatisfied with Al's contract/performance: There are 15 contracts on that list. How many of them would you swap, player and contract, for Horford today? Would you rather have Luol Deng, who's giving LA 8 points and 5 rebounds a game? Mozgov? Noah? Solomon **** Hill, with his 6 points and 4 rebounds a game on 39% shooting?

Seriously. I'd love to hear it.



Re: Is Al Horford on the worst contact in the league
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2017, 11:04:53 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Let's have some perspective.  According to ESPN, Horford is 7th among centers in scoring, 5th in 3PM, 4th in 2PT%, 8th in blocks and 1st in assists (and first in assist to turnover ratio).

He's a very effective player.

How updated are those stats?  I bet they are a little dated.  He has been absolutely HORRIBLE the last five games.  Horrible.  There is NO spinning this Roy!!!   He is in a MAJOR SLUMP and he needs to snap out of it very soon.

Smitty77
His contract is not for 5 games.

An you are the one spinning, not Roy.

I think that Roy can protect himself.  Are you his big brother or something?:-)))  Gosh, thanks for telling me that.  I had NO idea!!  Sadly we will be paying him an average of around $29 million per year for the next three years AFTER this year:-(((((

He had a 17.5 PER BEFORE shooting 2-11 tonight and 0-3 from three.  That is NOT $27 worth of production no matter how you guys try to spin it.

Can you all ADMIT that he is in a slump???????

Smitty77
I don't care about slumps in any sport. I care about overall performance. I don't look for small sample sizes to get me excited.

How about a FIVE YEAR sample of his PER by year starting with this year going back 4 more years??

17.49
19.50
21.40
22.10
19.80

I expect about a 20 PER for $27 million personally and I KNOW that Al can deliver that!!!!

Smitty77

Per isn't a good stat to measure a guy who's impact isn't always on the stat sheet.  It's also not a good way to measure how good anyone is (unless you feel that Javale McGee is a top 20 player in the league, but even McGee himself doesn't think that). It measures efficiency and statistical impact, but misses intangibles and defense, while also prioritizing volume scoring over efficiency.  It's not a very good catch-all statistic

McGee is 102nd in RPM if that counts for anything, but he is only 186th in WINS.  Horford is 44th in RPM and 45 in WINS.  Even using ESPN's real plus minus, it does NOT justify Horford's max deal.  I bet Atlanta is smiling about now.

Smitty77
Are they smiling from their perch 6.5 games behind us?

RPM isnt a great stat either. Its an interesting one, but not an argument ender.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.