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Trust The Process
« on: February 24, 2017, 07:18:55 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Aside from the Golden State Globetrotters, who should cut through this league like butter for the next 5-8 years barring injury, there is no team in the league set up better than the Boston Celtics in the near and long-term.   I'm completely ecstatic we didn't overpay for Premium Brand Ricky Davis.  I'm beyond relieved we didn't mortgage the team's future for 1.3 years of non-Superstar Paul George before he flees to the Lakers.   

Ignore the haters who claim Boston overvalues their assets.  Our team is STACKED.  We have unlimited options   The majority of our assets will only increase in value over the next several months.

First, let's talk about what we COULD have done.  Yeah, we could have had Cousins.  Yeah we could have had Melo.  Yes, we were more than capable of acquiring a Paul George or Jimmy Butler or Andre Drummond.  We didn't do it.  That was our choice.  It was the right choice to make.   If the asking price for a guy like George had honestly been the 2017 Brooklyn 1st + 3 out of the following players (Bradley, Crowder, Smart and Jaylen), we were completely right to hang up the phone laughing.   They will regret this in the same way the Charlotte Hornets regret passing on 4 first round picks (including the Brooklyn 1st that ended up Jaylen Brown) in favor of selecting Frank Kaminsky.   Dear Charlotte, I don't know who the hell this guy is or why I should care, but his catchphrase seems more than appropriate here: 



Chicago and Indy... you next.  Enjoy your treadmills.  Enjoy the dwindling trade value of Butler and George as they near free agency, they get more disgruntled at their situation, and your trade options dry up as you discover teams picking at the top of the draft generally want to keep the superstar prospects they select.  Boston keeping their assets was a wise decision they can easily revisit later.  You passing on acquiring that Brooklyn 1st, if it was truly on the table, could legitimately haunt your franchises for years depending on how this plays out.   Even if we fall to 4th in the lotto, you'll be lucky to get that pick - as I can't imagine the young rebuilding teams picking Top 3 would be interested in giving up their new savior for a 28 year old star that already proved he can't carry a team.

Danny's dominated the GM game for so long and taken advantage of so many teams that rival GM's are afraid of him.  They now assume any offer he makes is going to be a heist.   This wasn't one of those instances.  Reportedly, teams had a chance to steal that Brooklyn 1st from us - but they trembled in fear at the legend of Ainge (or perhaps in the case of Larry and Indiana, didn't want to let his little brother get the better of him), and talked themselves out of an unprecedented situation where a team was willing to give up a historically valuable draft pick in an overpay for non-MVP caliber talent. 

Dear Indy and Chicago...



Side note:  I'm obligated to now mention that Brooklyn is more than capable of rattling off 26 straight wins to close out the season and play themselves out of the bottom 5.   If so... nice move Chicago and Indy... nice move.

As for the Boston Celtics, our situation is pure gold.   Our assets are outstanding.  And assuming we continue on this 50+ win trajectory and make a playoff run - these players will only gain in desirability.    Let's take a look at what this team actually has right now.

Isaiah Thomas - Offensively if he keeps this up, he's an MVP candidate.  His stats are legitimately better than Iverson in his prime.  They are also better than Derrick Rose when he won MVP.   Defense is another thing entirely, but IT's stretch is worthy of all the praise it's received.  He's unbelievable.

Al Horford - He was the 2nd best free agent acquisition last Summer behind Durant.  He's a fantastic all-star level two-way talent that made Atlanta significantly better.  He's now making Boston significantly better.

Avery Bradley - When healthy he's a borderline all-star.   He was already an All-Defense 1st team guard last year (meaning he was arguably the best defensive shooting guard in the entire league) but add to it 18 points per game, 7 rebounds, 48%/41%/76% shooting, he's one of the best two-way guards in the entire league.  Rival players fear going up against him.  I wouldn't have been shocked to see Bradley average 20+ points on a less stacked team.  I still think he's capable of making an all-star team with a large enough offensive role.

Jae Crowder - He's always been an energy/hustle guy with solid defense, but his offense has taken a major leap this season - partially through hard work and partially because of the addition of Horford and the leaps his teammates have made.   In addition to his tough defense and solid all-around game, he's evolved into a prototypical "3 and D" wing with great size.  This season he's literally been one of the top 10 most efficient shooters in the entire league avearging 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists with 47%/41%/87% shooting.  He's also got one of the best contracts in the NBA - making less than 8 million per year for the next 4 years.   This isn't a "throw-in" level ball player.  This is a top-tier NBA starter who I believe could realistically average 18-20 points with a heightened role on a bad team like Chicago.  If we make a run in the playoffs - his value shoots up.

Marcus Smart - As disappointed as I've been in his production through his first couple years, I've remained of the belief he had a chance to develop into a star.  I still believe that.   We've seen hints of him finally breaking out.  His FG% has inched up (his three point shooting has been respectable in 2017 and he's been shooting 47% in February), his defense is otherworldly, his intangibles are off the charts, he's competently filled a heightened playmaking role - and he's still only 22 years old and could very reasonably continue to make major improvements.   I wouldn't be surprised to see him make an All-Defense team THIS year... and I wouldn't be shocked to see him make an all-star team at some point in the next 5.  He's a special player.  He alone is the type of young asset that could be the foundation piece of a trade for a superstar (example:  Hield netting Cousins). 

Jaylen Brown - We knew he was raw, but we also saw the physical gifts and obvious potential.  We see signs of his improvement every game.  I can't wait to see what he looks like next year, the year after, and 5 years from now.   He has a chance to be an all-star some day.  I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a better player than Butler or George.  But keep in mind, it took time for those guys.  George's rookie season was similar to Jaylen.  He didn't really look like a star until year 3.   Butler sucked as a rookie.  Butler didn't really reach stardom until his 4th season at the age of 24.  I was never confident that a guy like Gerald Green could reach stardom, but I believe in Jaylen Brown.  He has the physical attributes, mentality, and intelligence that lead me to believe he can reach his ceiling in Boston.  Give Jaylen time to show what he can do.  We'll win plenty of games while we wait. 

Kelly Olynyk -
he's quietly been an excellent role player for 4 straight years.   A career 48% shooting and 37% from three.   He's not great and might never be great.  He's streaky.  But over the course of a season, he's been very consistent.  His per 36-numbers remain pretty consistent every year.  About 16.5 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.3 steals with 48%/37%/74% shooting.   His minutes have been limited to around 20 each season, but when given more he always seems to produce.  I wouldn't be stunned to see him average 16-18 points on a lesser team with starter minutes.   We'll have a tough decision on whether to keep him this Summer.

Terry Rozier - Look he's a 22 year old #16 pick who hasn't done much.  He hasn't really been given consistent minutes, though.  And while it's not something to overreact to, it's fair to point out that this kid absolutely dominated D-League and was literally a top 2 player in Summer League this year.   My only takeaway from that we have some evidence he's better than a lot of his more well-known peers getting bigger minutes on lesser teams.   If Rozier was on a team like Brooklyn, might he be getting 30+ minutes a night and inflating his stats?  Very likely.  But he's buried behind an MVP candidate PG and a 6th man who gets 30+ minutes per night.  We also have signs that Rozier is improving.   In the month of February he's averaged 19 minutes per game and shot 43% from three.   He's an underrated wildcard asset.

James Young - Along the same lines, here's a kid who has been completely buried behind a ton of talented players.  Lost in that noise is that this is a kid who is still only 21 years old.   He's got two years until he's as old as Buddy Hield, for instance.   We have no idea what this kid can develop into.  The sample size we've seen is miniscle, but for the season he's shooting 49%/43%/71%.   He's gotten some playing time over the past 5 games and responded by averaging 6 points (in 12 minutes) with 57% shooting and 56% from three.   Just sayin... his per-36 over that tiny sample size is nearly 18 points per game with otherworldly shooting.   I haven't ruled out the possibility he's going to evolve into an outstanding 3-and-D player.   I want to see what James Young looks like 6 years from now when he's the same age as Jimmy Butler.  Granted, he might end up getting cut and end up in Europe - but I'm still maintaining my debris hut on James Young Island.

Yabu - Who freakin knows what we have in this guy.  He was a mid 1st we're stashing overseas.  He's dominating a Chinese basketball league.  His teammate, White Hield, just dropped 73 points in a game this week.  It's basically like Yabu spent an entire season playing against High School-level competition... but we'll see what happens, right? 

Zizic -  Here's the interesting thing to me about Zizic.  I recently pointed out on another Celtic forum that the gap between Jaylen and Zizic might be smaller than the gap between Jaylen and the top of the 2017 draft.  It's just an observation I've had.  In two separate articles, Sporting News suggested that Jaylen Brown would go around 10th in the 2017 draft and that Ante Zizic might be a top 10 pick in the 2017 draft.  I was having trouble wrapping my mind around this.  How could the same publication suggest that both Jaylen and Zizic would be picked around 10th?   Separately, I had seen a couple other people suggest Zizic might be the equivalent of a lotto pick in 2017.  Kevin O'Connor suggested Zizic would go around 11-17 in this upcoming draft.  I personally reached out to O'Connor to get his take and he told me that he saw Brown going something like 7-10.  He also suggested there might be a drop-off after pick 10, but nonetheless - there's "experts" out there who have said that this Zizic kid might reasonably be close to a mid 1st in what those same "experts" are labeling potentially one of the best/deepest drafts of the past 10 years.    That's reason for excitement.  Zizic might be a better prospect than the guy the Kings are going to get with the Pelicans 1st they just received.  Wrap your mind around that one.   Smart + Zizic might have been a better package than what the Kings got for Cousins. 

After looking at this team, consider what we have incoming.   Really consider it.

2017 Brooklyn 1st -
My entire goal for the past 20 years has been to see this team put themselves in position to land superstars via the draft.   Look at who made the All-NBA team the past couple years.  The VAST majority came into the league with top 7 picks.  Look at who has won MVP awards over the years.  Bird, Magic, LeBron, Durant, Jordan, Hakeem, etc... almost all of them came into the league with top 7 picks with very rare exceptions like Dirk (foreign), Kobe (high school) or Nash (legitimately unexpected).   Also look at Boston's own history of drafting towards the top and you'll see names like Cowens, McHale, Bird... as well as all-stars like Walker, assets we flipped for stars like Green and Billups, as well as still-blooming prospects with star potential (Smart and Brown).   Top picks can be busts (Len Bias the most tragic of our history) and stars can be found through the draft, but if you want a real crack at getting the next franchise talent - you need to pick at the top.   Luckily, this 2017 draft is being called exceptional.   It's not a 1 player draft.   I wouldn't be surprised to see both Fultz and Ball surpass Butler and George within the next few years.  But the same might be true of a guy like Josh Jackson and others.    Fact is, this draft is going going to gain momentum as we push through March Madness, pre-draft work-outs, etc.    We might have a franchise player incoming.   You can't pass up a shot at a franchise player for 5 years of a non-superstar.

2018 Brooklyn 1st - Same can be said of this pick.   It could reasonably end up in the top 5 where several bigs are thought to be at the top.  It's FAR too early to really judge this pick yet.   I get the interest in selling it early while we can... you never know if Brooklyn might signa  bunch of talent in the offseason and improve.   But what if that pick is the next Anthony Davis, Karls Towns, Embiid, Durant, LeBron, Blake, etc?    We can afford the luxury of waiting to find out.   


We obviously have tons of additional picks in the mix as well that could prove to be outstanding.  For instance, if the aging Memphis team falls apart over the next couple years, we have their Top 8 protected 2019 pick that becomes top 6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.   It's hard to think about an unprotected Memphis pick 4 years out - but many felt that same way when Boston gave up KG and Pierce for magical future assets we wouldn't see until 2018.  Have patience.

2017 Free Agency:  Then of course, we maintained our flexibility heading into free agency.   Scoff all you want at the idea Blake is going to leave Hollywood or that Gordon Hayward would abandon the vibrant nightlife of Utah, but there's several coals in the 2017 Free agency fire.  Why not keep our options open juuuuust in case Durant changes his mind this Summer?  How about a decent addition like Gallinari or Millsap?  What if Ibaka hates Toronto?  What if we decide throwing max money at restricted free agent Otto Porter makes sense?  Not a popular name, but what if Boston decides Greg Monroe is a good fit?  Well over a year ago when it seemed insane, I explained why I genuinely felt Durant would consider the Boston Celtics.  It seemed like a lock he'd at least take a meeting with us.  I couldn't fathom otherwise.  We had a solid playoff team with solid players, cap space to sign another max free agent, and an endless supply of picks and assets to improve the team over the next 5 years of his prime.   We had a top-level organization on all levels with excellent ownership, gangster management, and the best young coach in the game.   Also, it was arguably the greatest sports fanbase in the United States and one of the NBA's premiere franchises.  Some were surprised Durant took a meeting with us.  I wasn't.  It came down to us and a 73 win team.  I expected that.   This offseason, it will be the same situation, but even better.  Any free agent will need to take a meeting with Boston - if we are willing to give them one.   This is the place to be.

Say we strike-out in free agency... no problem.  Throw a late 1st to New York and I'm sure they'll be more than happy to unload Melo's 26 million dollar contract into our open cap space.  We have options.  So many options.  Options you haven't even thought of yet.  Danny has, though.     

Some of the hypothetical trades fans wanted to do (expiring contracts + great picks) would have eliminated the chance at utilizing 2017 free agency cap space.  Alternatively, some of the rumored trades Chicago/Indiana would have wanted would have stripped this team of undervalued players who are going to help us make a playoff run this year. 

Have some faith in the greatest GM in the entire league.   Have some respect and admiration for the team already on the court.   Our players are very good and not getting the credit they deserve nationally.   Part of the reason Thomas is able to dominate is because he has such excellent efficient shooters surrounding him.   And as long as he keeps dominating like this, we might as well keep riding it... I didn't see the point in taking the ball out of his hands late.   

Could we have improved marginally?  Maybe.   But we'd still be banking on the possibility of LeBron burning out and Golden State suffering injuries.  And if that happens, we'll probably have just as much of a pipe dream at winning a title this year by standing pat... and it will be a lot more fun rooting for guys we've already grown to love as opposed to some hired gun we traded for a couple months before the playoffs.   

Long-term, we have a chance to be really special.  There's only a few teams in the entire league that I think can rival our long-term future.  The Wolves.  Philly.  Perhaps the Bucks.  MAYBE the Lakers.   Imagine a core 5 years from now of Jaylen, Smart, potentially as many as two transcendent prospects with these two Brooklyn picks, Zizic, etc.  In the meantime, enjoy this incredibly entertaining team with one of the most exciting players in the entire NBA right now dropping 30+ a night.   

Let's give this time and see where it goes.   Trust the process. 
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 08:22:43 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2017, 08:00:44 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Let me know when the reader's digest version comes out. 

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2017, 08:02:37 PM »

Offline The One

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That's what I'm talking about!!

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2017, 08:07:53 PM »

Offline Big333223

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To for LarBrd for all the Celtics love.
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Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2017, 08:14:16 PM »

Offline blink

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that was epic, i have to admit.  tp

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2017, 08:21:39 PM »

Offline manl_lui

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<3 TP for you

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2017, 08:22:56 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I like to call it the "Development". And hope we hit on Nets picks.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2017, 08:37:02 PM »

Offline CelticsFan166

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LarBrd,

TP for the best post I've yet to see on here. While I was originally upset af Ainge for doing nothing, you made a believer out of me. We're well set up to say the least.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2017, 09:39:53 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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When I first saw the title of this thread, I thought, "That sounds like a LarBrd thread," but thinking that someone else started it. ;D
"There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'"

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Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2017, 09:52:59 PM »

Offline Emmette Bryant

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I don't think you're giving Sam Hinkie enough credit for the great job he did in Philly.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2017, 10:47:42 PM »

Online BitterJim

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Great post, LB. Are you back for real now?
I'm bitter.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2017, 11:12:42 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Wow with GIFs too?

Complete agree with the entire post.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2017, 11:30:20 PM »

Online liam

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Really well written post, thanks.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2017, 11:48:37 PM »

Online jpotter33

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I generally agree with this sentiment. I'm very glad that we didn't break the bank for Butler or George, both of whom I think wouldn't put us over the edge themselves. I also think if we really want them that they'll be cheaper at the draft. And I think most on here are of this same sentiment.

What is your opinion about us not improving our current team, though, even if it was just incrementally? We saw how important a guy like PJ Tucker could've been tonight, let alone Ibaka who only would've cost a bit more.

I just don't think there's any justification for not doing something smaller like that to at least give us a better chance this year. As it stands, we just have huge, glaring weaknesses that can be taken advantage of so easily that we don't even really have a puncher's chance of knocking off someone like Cleveland, let alone how difficult it will be getting past Toronto or Washington to even get that chance.

I can understand not getting Cousins or Noel, though I ultimately disagree with both, but something like Tucker or even Ibaka just totally blows my mind that we didn't go after harder, especially Ibaka when Danny said Rozier was too much to give up for him, which is laughable. They were literally both players that you could have for our minimal assets, and they wouldn't tie us down this summer if we didn't want to keep them.

I just don't think there's any justification for going more aggressively toward those deals. If you're going to take this "win now, but really win in the future" approach, then at least give us a puncher's chance of winning now by using the lesser assets we have to improve us now.

Re: Trust The Process
« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2017, 11:53:43 PM »

Online Celtic Fan Forever

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TP, I needed this today
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