Author Topic: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?  (Read 5562 times)

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Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2017, 01:51:12 PM »

Offline Rakulp

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If Danny didn't part with them to get Cousins, Butler or George, I'm not sure there are ANY available superstars that he would deal those picks to acquire.

Truthfully, I'd rather see how far this team can go this year...and then see what happens in the draft and the offseason.  The team has come together to be a team...I'd like to see how their season ends. 

Nobody expects them to beat either the Cavaliers or Warriors...but what a story could be told about the 18th banner if they did!

Rak

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought the would be?
« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2017, 02:07:07 PM »

Offline gift

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No, they're not bargaining chips. They're not even assets any more.

These picks ended up being so good that they now have to be considered as Golden Opportunities.

I think some folks are having trouble coming to terms with that. The original idea was that Danny was going to amass a huge number of picks - some decent, some not - and throw a bunch of them at a trade deal. It was a pretty good plan and he pulled it off well. We had a massive number of chips. We used them to get Crowder, IT, Smart and some other key contributors.

But these picks are too good to throw them around. Danny's smart enough to know that he has an opportunity that's never come to any GM before. Never before in the history of the NBA has any 50+ win team ever had 2 consecutive top 5 lottery picks. The Cs are going to have two and have a high likelihood of actually getting 3 top 5 picks. Those are tools in which you just don't build a winning team but you have an opportunity to build a dynasty.

Now I'm not saying the Cs are a dynasty or are going to be one. It's just they have an exceptionally rare opportunity to potentially have the pieces to do it. You don't just cash those in when others at the table are holding aces (Cle and GS). Better off waiting for the table to clear a bit and then sitting down and running away with it.

This is a good point. The picks turned out to be better than expected. If they were just standard lottery picks, they could more easily be packaged with misc. first rounders/second rounders and young players. But they are themselves a chance at the type of talent you hope to acquire by trading them. That doesn't mean you never trade them. But it means you value them differently.

Personally, I'm wondering what it might look like to have a fun team to watch with IT, Horford & co. over the next couple of years while developing Brown PLUS Fultz/Jackson/Ball/Tatum PLUS Ayton/Doncic/Bamba/Porter. It doesn't necessarily mean we'd be getting those guys and those guys are guaranteed stars. But a lot of teams tank for that type of potential and the Celtics can do it while competing at the top of the conference. I'm fine with that.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2017, 02:15:05 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Biggest issues, team with player they could let go of if the price is high enough want so much more then just this pick.   


Teams that moved a top talent took much less then this pick to do it. 


Waiting to you get to that middle ground (a top talent the Celtics want at a reasonable price)

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2017, 02:26:24 PM »

Offline Granath

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The Nets 2017 pick will become pure gold on May 16th 2017 at 9:30 pm. It's silver right now.

Ainge will have people eating out of his hands this year and next year. Brooklyn is getting worse not better.

No it's gold right now. Hopefully it will just be more gold on draft night.

Seems that people are treating even the #4 pick in a loaded draft as a consolation prize. It's not. It's an exceptionally important opportunity with a very significant historical chance of turning into an all-star caliber player. I get that we all want #1 but let's not think that #4 somehow sucks. This isn't '97 (Duncan) or '07 (Durant/Oden). This is 2017 and this appears to be a very strong draft throughout the top choices. The fact that we're virtually guaranteed a top 4 pick in a draft like this is enough to make me giddy.
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Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2017, 03:02:16 PM »

Offline ThaPreacher

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If Danny didn't part with them to get Cousins, Butler or George, I'm not sure there are ANY available superstars that he would deal those picks to acquire.

Truthfully, I'd rather see how far this team can go this year...and then see what happens in the draft and the offseason.  The team has come together to be a team...I'd like to see how their season ends. 

Nobody expects them to beat either the Cavaliers or Warriors...but what a story could be told about the 18th banner if they did!

Rak

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Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2017, 03:32:30 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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The Nets 2017 pick will become pure gold on May 16th 2017 at 9:30 pm. It's silver right now.

Ainge will have people eating out of his hands this year and next year. Brooklyn is getting worse not better.

No it's gold right now. Hopefully it will just be more gold on draft night.

Seems that people are treating even the #4 pick in a loaded draft as a consolation prize. It's not. It's an exceptionally important opportunity with a very significant historical chance of turning into an all-star caliber player. I get that we all want #1 but let's not think that #4 somehow sucks. This isn't '97 (Duncan) or '07 (Durant/Oden). This is 2017 and this appears to be a very strong draft throughout the top choices. The fact that we're virtually guaranteed a top 4 pick in a draft like this is enough to make me giddy.

Re: The bolded part. Yeah, the #4 pick is a "consolation prize" compared to the #1 pick.

As for the relevance to the topic of this thread (i.e. viewing the pick as a bargaining chip), the pick absolutely has less value right now to opposing GM's than it would if it is the #1 pick after the lottery.

Angel most likely wanted #1 pick value, but opposing GM's were only treating the pick with #4 pick value. Ultimately that proved to big of a gap to reach a deal.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2017, 05:18:36 PM »

Online 86MaxwellSmart

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People would lose their minds if Ainge had traded these once in a lifetime picks, and they turned out to be franchise (Curry/Durant) type players.

I'm very satisfied we still have the picks.
Larry Bird was Greater than you think.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2017, 05:33:19 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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The issue with trading the picks is that they are too much of a wildcard for people a proper value on them.  If we knew it would end up #1 or #4, we could assess it's worth and trade or not.  But we just don't know.

Other teams probably place worse case scenario value on them.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2017, 05:38:37 PM »

Offline mctyson

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The issue with trading the picks is that they are too much of a wildcard for people a proper value on them.  If we knew it would end up #1 or #4, we could assess it's worth and trade or not.  But we just don't know.

Other teams probably place worse case scenario value on them.

Correct.  Which is why the real value will come if it falls #1.  At that point a Kevin Love-like trade is on the table, where you give up just the pick (and a project young guy) for a bonafide All-Star.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2017, 05:41:45 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Problem is ,  LeBron is still great , and Curry is best shooter ever in NBA........the amount of players to overcome these guys is very limited .   The handful that could put us in the conversation are not available.

Has more to,do,with the situation of top players than the value of our assets.   The perfect storm , apparently is what DA ismwaiting for I guess and LeBron to begin a decline.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #25 on: February 24, 2017, 11:17:40 PM »

Offline OldSchoolDude

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I see what the OP is trying to say, but I think a lot of people are overlooking the underlying theme of greed. Every smart GM in the league is trying to hoard assets, and flip them for more than their original value/acquisition. At this particular point in time, we had a few top 10-15 players who were all made "available" (a very abstract word in the trade market).

Everyone in the league also knows that outside of Philly maybe, the Celtics have the best package of easily liqubable and high-value trade commodities between their combination of picks/young prospects/amazing contracts.

Players like Jimmy Butler, Paul George, etc., on failing teams or mediocre ones, only lose trade value as their contracts get closer to expiration.

THIS is what many on this board are not understanding. Did Ainge p--- away the 2017 season? Hardly! We have the 5th best record in the league as we are "rebuilding". Why is Philly so far down in the standing having had a half decade of top 5 picks and cap space? Bottom line is that the GM's for the teams we were having discussions with got GREEDY. They thought we would cave or some other team would and send them a treasure trove of assets which BUYS THEM MORE TIME.

This is why Ainge is the best poker player in the league. He knows he's sitting with pocket aces. The river hasn't happened yet. The turn will be this years draft once the ping pong balls fall. Right now he was probably hearing, "oh, well this is the 4th pick at best...." When Brooklyn officially finishes in last, and we have a 70% chance of the pick being 1, 2, or 3, it changes everything! If it turns in to #1, we will be able to flip just this pick, maybe a mid level prospect like Rozier, and cap filler for Butler, and especially George, just like Cleveland did when they traded #1 for Kevin Love (which I'm sure they now also regret).

This is only going to get better, and we as Celtics fans, need to stand pat too. Stand back with a positive attitude, and watch a fun and competitive team do their thing! The rest will absolutely fall in to place.

If the pick is #1 we are not trading it.  Rumor is that we wanted protection on the pick at least top 2, so Danny will draft either Ball or Fultz.   Say what you will about Ainge and big men, but he does know how to draft guards.  Now he gets to draft possibly the best guard in the last decade.  No he's not trading that pick.   And in 2018 if we can draft DeAndre Ayton, Danny's not trading that either. 

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #26 on: February 24, 2017, 11:56:58 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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The reality is Ainge is an idiot.

Thats really all they're is to it.   

Today's game would have been a Boston win if we got ibaka,  instead we let Toronto get him for next to nothing.  Now we don't need to worry about beating Cleveland,  because we won't get past the raptors.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #27 on: February 25, 2017, 12:00:30 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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The issue with trading the picks is that they are too much of a wildcard for people a proper value on them.  If we knew it would end up #1 or #4, we could assess it's worth and trade or not.  But we just don't know.

Other teams probably place worse case scenario value on them.

Correct.  Which is why the real value will come if it falls #1.  At that point a Kevin Love-like trade is on the table, where you give up just the pick (and a project young guy) for a bonafide All-Star.

Why wouldn't you?

Best case scenario only has a 25% chance of happening.   The worst has has something like a 35% chance.

Why would you expect what the odds are strongly against?  There's a 75% chance Boston won't get the #1 pick,  and any pick after  #1 drops significantly in value

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2017, 12:03:49 AM »

Online jpotter33

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The reality is Ainge is an idiot.

Thats really all they're is to it.   

Today's game would have been a Boston win if we got ibaka,  instead we let Toronto get him for next to nothing.  Now we don't need to worry about beating Cleveland,  because we won't get past the raptors.

I'm right there with you on this. I literally see no downside to getting him. Rozier and some late first round pick that we're just going to stash or not use anyways is worth the cost of Ibaka. This is an example of Ainge overvaluing his assets and the mythical "flexibility" once again.

And the free agency argument doesn't work either, because we can always renounce Ibaka's rights if we didn't plan on resigning him if it didn't work out and didn't want him clogging our cap.

Literally, this would've been a way for us to legitimately win now and in the future. Rather, we're just going to waltz into the playoffs with significant holes and weaknesses to be exploited, just so that we can keep Rozier and a late first round pick that will probably never help us anyways.

Re: So are the BK picks not the bargaining chips we thought they would be?
« Reply #29 on: February 25, 2017, 12:09:00 AM »

Offline Sixth Man

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The reality is Ainge is an idiot.

Thats really all they're is to it.   

Today's game would have been a Boston win if we got ibaka,  instead we let Toronto get him for next to nothing.  Now we don't need to worry about beating Cleveland,  because we won't get past the raptors.

Someone needs a hug...