Author Topic: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft  (Read 2162 times)

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Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« on: February 22, 2017, 08:28:17 AM »

Offline footey

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The best player in this draft could go at 3 (Jackson) or 4 (Tatum), not to mention fulfill a greater need for the Celtics, so why on earth would we offer a top 2 protected 2017 pick? People need to study this draft better before making proposals like this.

All the casual observers assume that it's Fultz, Ball, and everyone else. That's what I originally assumed, and the tier ratings of Ford a month ago supported this view.  But after watching several full games of these guys the last couple of weeks, the value of this draft is that it is 3-4 deep with excellent talent. That is why I am not really stressing about the lottery. Even if we pick 3 or 4, we will land a really good player. Ainge has said as much recently in his comments on the draft.

My personal favorite, as I've mentioned several times now, is Jackson. I think he will be a more impactful NBA player than any of them, and could very well be available at 3 or 4.

Don't even think of offering protected pick, Danny!

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2017, 09:15:20 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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Good prospects being available at #3 and 4 are what would allow us to protect the pick.  The Brooklyn 2017 pick is the most valuable asset we have right now.  If we want to trade for a (super)star, then it's pretty much a guarantee that it'll need to be included.  Having it top 2 protected would potentially allow us to draft either of the top 2 prospects on Danny's draft board and get another star to pair with Thomas and Horford (or use that top 2 pick in another trade).  I don't think anyone's including the 2017 pick with top 2 protections in place of the 2018 pick, but rather in place of the 2017 pick with no protections

You shouldn't be comparing the #3 and 4 prospects to the #1 and 2 to see if we should protect the pick, you should be comparing them to the star we would be getting in return.  (That said, I'd rather keep the pick for now and only consider trading it after the lottery)
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 10:10:44 AM by BitterJim »
I'm bitter.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2017, 10:12:28 AM »

Offline footey

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Good prospects being available at #3 and 4 are what would allow us to protect the pick.  The Brooklyn 2017 pick is the most valuable asset we have right now.  If we want to trade for a (super)star, then it's pretty much a guarantee that it'll need to be included.  Having it top 2 protected would potentially allow us to draft either of the top 2 prospects on Danny's draft board and get another star to pair with Thomas and Horford (or use that top 2 pick in another trade).  I don;t think anyone's including the 2017 pick with top 2 protections in place of the 2018 pick, but rather in place of the 2017 pick with no protections

You shouldn't be comparing the #3 and 4 prospects to the #1 and 2 to see if we should protect the pick, you should be comparing them to the star we would be getting in return.  (That said, I'd rather keep the pick for now and only consider trading it after the lottery)

No "(super) star" is available in any trade proposal I have read. Surely you are not suggesting that Butler or George is a super star.  And if a real super star was available (e.g., Anthony Davis) , the point is moot: you would not be able to put any protection on the pick, and I would gladly trade it in that extremely remote circumstance.

I am not going to trade the high likelihood of getting Josh Jackson for Butler or George. That's me, I am projecting that this kid will be special.  I have no problem trading Avery and or Crowder if the price is right, even though I think they are fantastic, because I recognize the log jam of talent and contract expiration issues down the pike.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 10:23:34 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Good prospects being available at #3 and 4 are what would allow us to protect the pick.  The Brooklyn 2017 pick is the most valuable asset we have right now.  If we want to trade for a (super)star, then it's pretty much a guarantee that it'll need to be included.  Having it top 2 protected would potentially allow us to draft either of the top 2 prospects on Danny's draft board and get another star to pair with Thomas and Horford (or use that top 2 pick in another trade).  I don't think anyone's including the 2017 pick with top 2 protections in place of the 2018 pick, but rather in place of the 2017 pick with no protections

You shouldn't be comparing the #3 and 4 prospects to the #1 and 2 to see if we should protect the pick, you should be comparing them to the star we would be getting in return.  (That said, I'd rather keep the pick for now and only consider trading it after the lottery)

I think it's also useful to compare the #3 and #4 in this year's draft to top picks in other drafts. My impression is that Jackson/Tatum (or whatever pair you think are the best) is pretty competitive talent-wise with the #1/#2 picks in many recent drafts.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 10:39:02 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Trading for a star like Butler of George is going to start with the unprotected 17 Nets pick.   Putting top 2 (or any) protection on the  pick greatly reduces its value.  There would be a 46.5% chance that the pick would roll over to 2018.  With top 2 protection, the Nets pick would only be slightly more valuable than the Lakers top 3 protected pick.  It would be less valuable than one of the other top 5 picks unprotected in this draft. 

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2017, 11:12:15 AM »

Offline td450

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The best GM's negotiate for every little advantage they can get, while still getting the deals done that they want to make. It can be a minor issue on a 2nd round pick or getting one or two extra slots of pick protection on a major deal. These things add up over the years, and sometimes they end up mattering quite a bit.

Vlade Divac may not bother with such things, but Ainge sure does.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2017, 11:17:52 AM »

Offline nebist

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Agreed.  I think Jackson should be talked about in the same tier as Fultz and Ball.  I think Ainge would consider all 3 if he had the number 1 pick, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Jackson was ultimately the Celtics guy.  6'8" wings that are that athletic and know how to play the game and have great make-up don't grow on trees.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2017, 11:19:29 AM »

Offline footey

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Agreed.  I think Jackson should be talked about in the same tier as Fultz and Ball.  I think Ainge would consider all 3 if he had the number 1 pick, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Jackson was ultimately the Celtics guy.  6'8" wings that are that athletic and know how to play the game and have great make-up don't grow on trees.

TP

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2017, 11:22:26 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Top 2 protection on the pick is the opposite of dumb.

The Celtics will have made a steal of a trade if they can get any protections on the Nets pick. Top 2 protections isn't going to happen. There is no way the Bulls would agree to a trade with any stronger protections than top 2 (and would be foolish to accept any protection).

Top 2 protection isn't about protecting the pick because this only is 2 deep, it's about adding a chance that the C's could keep their pick. Personally, I'd settle for top 1 protection because I don't think there is any way the Bulls accept any protection on the pick.

I completely agree the draft is more than 2 deep, but protecting the pick higher than 2 greatly diminishes its value.
DKC:  Rockets
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Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2017, 11:27:43 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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Good prospects being available at #3 and 4 are what would allow us to protect the pick.  The Brooklyn 2017 pick is the most valuable asset we have right now.  If we want to trade for a (super)star, then it's pretty much a guarantee that it'll need to be included.  Having it top 2 protected would potentially allow us to draft either of the top 2 prospects on Danny's draft board and get another star to pair with Thomas and Horford (or use that top 2 pick in another trade).  I don;t think anyone's including the 2017 pick with top 2 protections in place of the 2018 pick, but rather in place of the 2017 pick with no protections

You shouldn't be comparing the #3 and 4 prospects to the #1 and 2 to see if we should protect the pick, you should be comparing them to the star we would be getting in return.  (That said, I'd rather keep the pick for now and only consider trading it after the lottery)

No "(super) star" is available in any trade proposal I have read. Surely you are not suggesting that Butler or George is a super star.  And if a real super star was available (e.g., Anthony Davis) , the point is moot: you would not be able to put any protection on the pick, and I would gladly trade it in that extremely remote circumstance.

I am not going to trade the high likelihood of getting Josh Jackson for Butler or George. That's me, I am projecting that this kid will be special.  I have no problem trading Avery and or Crowder if the price is right, even though I think they are fantastic, because I recognize the log jam of talent and contract expiration issues down the pike.

The "(super)star" means "star or super star", just as "player(s)" means "player or players".  George and Butler are absolutely stars (as I'm sure you'd agree), and I never suggested that they were superstars

I get not wanting to trade either of them for George/Butler, but it seems like your issue is more with including the 2017 pick (protected or not) than with the actual protections
I'm bitter.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2017, 11:38:21 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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The best GM's negotiate for every little advantage they can get, while still getting the deals done that they want to make. It can be a minor issue on a 2nd round pick or getting one or two extra slots of pick protection on a major deal. These things add up over the years, and sometimes they end up mattering quite a bit.

Vlade Divac may not bother with such things, but Ainge sure does.
Putting top 2 protection on a pick that is guaranteed to be top 4 pick (46.5% of the pick rolling over to 2018) is definitely not a minor issue.  The 2018 draft is probably going to be significantly weaker than this draft and there is no guarantee that the Nets will be the worst team in 2018. 
 

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2017, 12:00:18 PM »

Offline footey

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The Celtics will have made a steal of a trade if they can get any protections on the Nets pick.

For whom? Butler?

Bear in mind that a protected top 2, by definition, implies that "if you don't get the Brooklyn 2017 pick (because it landed top 2), you will be getting our 2018 Brooklyn pick.

Re: Top 2 Protection Dumb in This Draft
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2017, 01:09:44 PM »

Offline OldSchoolDude

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The bulls starting 5 for next season looks like this:   
PG: Isaiah Canaan
SG:  Denzel Valentine
SF:  Jimmy Butler
PF: Nikola Mirotic
C: Robin Lopez

Butler’s contract will be up before that team can contend, so trading him now makes a lot of sense. They tried adding D-Wade and Rondo but that is a fail in progress and both those guys will be gone next season.  They’re not bringing in any top level FA, so they are looking to be one of the NBA bottom feeders next year.  Us on the other hand will sing a MAX free agent and we apparently have a good shot at Hayward. But even if we sign someone else like Noel for instance, we will once again be a top level team in the NBA.   We do not need to trade for Butler to be a really good team, but Chicago needs to trade him.  Top two is a generous on our part and it tells me we already know who we really like in the draft and that we are dialed into that pick.