Author Topic: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?  (Read 10465 times)

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Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« on: February 22, 2017, 01:08:20 AM »

Offline max215

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I've long been of the belief that Paul George is among the more overrated players in the league. With Jimmy Butler's elevation this year, he's separated himself from George. Hayward's impressive improvement this year has created an interesting discussion among these three likely targets, though. Hayward has forced us to consider whether he is actually a superior player to George. Now, I won't get into the whole business of getting Hayward for nothing this offseason vs. emptying the coffers for George now, but I implore you to consider the question of which player, irrespective of outside influences (which undoubtedly favor Hayward), is better. The counting stats are a push, the percentages, advanced stats (TS%, VORP, WS) all favor Hayward. The defense is hard to quantify, and anecdotally, George is certainly better, but DWS and DRPM (I know, yuck) both favor Hayward. So all this leaves me wondering, what credible argument remains that Paul George is a better player than Gordon Hayward? I guess he's done it longer, but that's not a particularly compelling argument. I guess Paul George was the best player on an ECF team, but that's well in the past and that team had talent and the East was weak AND Hayward is currently the best player on an excellent Jazz team. Basically, I can't find much of an argument for George being appreciably better (as he's perceived), can you guys?

PS: PLEASE look at the Bball Ref page linked below before dismissing this.

http://bkref.com/tiny/ElJBd
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 01:24:46 AM by max215 »
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Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2017, 01:49:56 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I suppose it's about how you value their strengths.
-Profile; PG has great size and athleticism. Hayward is pretty good athlete capable of SG or SF play. But edge goes to PG a nightmare match up.

-Production; I do feel Hayward is more consistent but can't take over a game like PG can. So how do we value that depends on the evaluator.

-Cost; You can make an argument that Hayward is a better choice as you can pick him up for just cap space. So acquisition cost is lower. Yet on the court PG can be slotted at PF and you aren't forced to play Crowder or Hayward way out of position so it's less a on the court cost to use the players. And PG's cap # is also lower.

I'm OK with either.

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2017, 02:00:59 AM »

Offline MBunge

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I don't think George is close to the LeBron/Durant level but the argument for him over Hayward is that the Pacers have been far more successful with George as the #1 guy than the Jazz have been with Hayward as #1.  There's arguments you can make for why that is but George is definitely the more proven player.

Mike

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2017, 03:35:16 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Personally, I do actually feel that Paul George is a little overrated here.  That said, there are a few reasons why I consider George better then Hayward. 

1: Consistency 
Over the past four seasons Paul George has averaged at least 21 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists every single season except for 2014/15 (which doesn't count, as he only played 6 games).  Over that time he's averaged between 36% - 38% from three and betweenm 86% and 91% from the free throw line in all of those years except the injury seasons.  He's been considered one of the best defensive wing players in the league over that entire stretch.  For almost half a decade Paul George has consistently been one of the top 5 or 6 wing players in the NBA on both ends of the court, and at 26 years of age there's no evidence to show he can't still get better.  You know what to expect from George, year after year he's playing like an all-star.

Over the past four seasons, this is the first time Gordon Hayward has averaged over 20 PPG.  He's never averaged 6 rebounds per game. His assist numbers have been about on par with George.  His 3PT shooting has varied from 30% to 38%.  His FG% has varied between 41% and 46%,  His FT% have been fairly consistent.  His defensive reputation has varied between "woeful" and "good".  The one year that he's finally putting up star-like numbers happens to be his contract year as well.  Once he gets a payday, will these numbers hold up?  Nobody knows really.  It's a big question mark...especially for a guy who wouldn't sign for less then a max deal, which you know will be something like ~$30M a year over the next 4-5 years.


2: Success
Paul George has carried the Pacers to more success then they probably deserve for years now.  They have had very unspectacular teams, and he's carried them to the playoffs every single season expect the one where he played 6 game due to injury.  He has a proven record as a leader, as a winner, as a guy who can put a team on his back.

Hayward has played 4 playoff games in his career, and they all came in his second season when he aveaged 11 PPG - so it's not like he did much to contribute to it.  He's played alongside guys like Paul Millsap, Enes Kanter, Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood - he has had reasonable talent around him.  Sure, the West is tougher and I acknowledge that.  But the fact remains that Hayward has never really done much to prove that he's a leader, a winner, or somebody who can be depended on every night to carry a team.   

That's even before you get to the physical aspects - the athleticism, for example, is something you can't teach. George is so far superior athletically to Gordon that it's not even funny.

These are two main reasons why I rate Paul George a whole level above Hayward, and why I think almost every GM in the league probably would too. 

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 06:22:07 AM »

Offline cltc5

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Yep.  All day

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2017, 06:26:26 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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George is more versatile, but in terms of production, Hayward has a slight edge.


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Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2017, 06:46:02 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Both players are really well rounded.
Tall, strong, think fast, can shoot, dribble and pass. Both defend and can switch. I have seen Paul George take over a game much more times than Hayward did, he can hit 5 4th quarter threes in a row and send a team goodbye. That, along with better defense is a lot.
But if you ask me would I rather have Hayward + an option to trade for PG13 in the summer or PG now for some package like Brown, Bradley, and 1 BKN pick, without cap space to wait for, I would rather wait for the summer. It is also a more realistic option.
I don't think that the time is now for Bird to let him go. They could win a series this year after all. Perhaps against Toronto (should have done it last year - Vogel was fired cause he rested PG too much in that pivotal game 5 of the series) or Washington. That could significantly shift the direction of the franchise. It may even help their long-term goal of resigning him.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 07:52:57 AM by Androslav »
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Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2017, 07:28:20 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Does anyone seriously think that Larry Bird is going to trade Paul George, especially for what DA is willing to offer?

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2017, 07:40:57 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Quote
Does anyone seriously think that Larry Bird is going to trade Paul George, especially for what DA is willing to offer?

I don't

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2017, 07:44:59 AM »

Offline Sketch5

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Does anyone seriously think that Larry Bird is going to trade Paul George, especially for what DA is willing to offer?

Depends. The Pacers are kinda stuck where they are. If Bird doesn't see a way to either get a FA or trade for one in the next two years that makes them contenders, he may bite and rebuild in the draft. That 2017 pick would be a nice start and they would be bad enough to get an other in the top ten. If you look at their team, they're aren't good, and don't have much of trade value to get better.

This is why the Nets trade was so good. DA can either build threw the draft, or use the picks to get better. He made enough small moves to get some good talent, that attracted Horford. Bird hasn't been able to do that yet. They had something going a couple years back, but lost it threw FA or bad trades.

So it just depends on how fast Bird wants to rebuild, now or when PG13 bolts in FA.

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2017, 07:52:33 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Now guys, how about this.

If you could have:

* George on $19M/3
* Butler on $17M/3
* Hayward on $26M/4

Who would still rather have Hayward?

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2017, 07:53:59 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Does anyone seriously think that Larry Bird is going to trade Paul George, especially for what DA is willing to offer?

I think more likely than not he stays.  But Bird, like Ainge, is aggressive when it comes to making these sorts of decisions.  The Pacers team, as constructed, isn't working.  Over the summer when it wasn't working he surprised everyone by letting Vogel go and swapping Hill for Teague.  A couple years earlier, he surprised everyone by letting Lance walk away for what seemed like a very team-friendly offer.  He's not afraid to go against the grain.

His Plan A right now is to try to bring in more help for the team this week.  But if he can't, he has to decide whether he'll be able to improve the team this summer.  George has pretty much intimated that he won't stick around after next year if the Pacers don't improve.  The best offers Bird will see for George are probably today and tomorrow.  If Bird doesn't think he can make this current team around George work in time, he won't be afraid to make a trade.

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2017, 07:54:21 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Both players are really well rounded.
Tall, strong, think fast, can shoot, dribble and pass. Both defend and can switch. I have seen Paul George take over a game much more times than Hayward did, he can hit 5 4th quarter threes in a row and send a team goodbye. That, along with better defense is a lot.
But if you ask me would I rather have Hayward + an option to trade for PG13 in the summer or PG now for some package like Brown, Bradley, and 1 BKN pick, without cap space to wait for, I would rather wait for the summer. It is also a more realistic option.
I don't think that the time is now for Bird to let him go. They could win a series this year after all. Perhaps against Toronto (should have done it last year - Vogel was fired cause he rested PG too much in that pivotal game 6 of the series) or Washington. That could significantly shift the direction of the franchise. It may even help their long-term goal of resigning him.

What if Geroge was making $19M for 3 years and Hayward was making $26M for four years. Would you still rather have Hayward?

What's the acquisition cost?


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Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2017, 07:55:05 AM »

Offline mef730

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Question 1A: Do we do a deal for George or sign Hayward this summer without a deal for Crowder (or, I suppose, Brown) already in place? If we pick up one of those guys and then have three small forwards, we become a forced seller.

Mike

Re: Is Paul George Better Than Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2017, 08:00:24 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Both players are really well rounded.
Tall, strong, think fast, can shoot, dribble and pass. Both defend and can switch. I have seen Paul George take over a game much more times than Hayward did, he can hit 5 4th quarter threes in a row and send a team goodbye. That, along with better defense is a lot.
But if you ask me would I rather have Hayward + an option to trade for PG13 in the summer or PG now for some package like Brown, Bradley, and 1 BKN pick, without cap space to wait for, I would rather wait for the summer. It is also a more realistic option.
I don't think that the time is now for Bird to let him go. They could win a series this year after all. Perhaps against Toronto (should have done it last year - Vogel was fired cause he rested PG too much in that pivotal game 6 of the series) or Washington. That could significantly shift the direction of the franchise. It may even help their long-term goal of resigning him.

What if Geroge was making $19M for 3 years and Hayward was making $26M for four years. Would you still rather have Hayward?

What's the acquisition cost?

Lets say, for argument's sake, that Bird wants Bradley + Smart + Jerebko + 2018 Brooklyn 1st.

* This gives us a starting five of Thomas, George, Crowder, Amir and Horford.

* George's defence and outside shooting more then makes up for what we lose with Bradley and Smart

* We keep the 2017 Brooklyn pick

* We still maintain enough cap flexibility to sign a max free agent - so we could still go after Hayward or Griffin