Author Topic: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency  (Read 12700 times)

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Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2017, 10:01:03 AM »

Offline Darío SpanishFan

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I don't think he makes the 3rd All-NBA team, which is much better for the Celtics.

Hard to get excited for this guy, after you just said that man.

If you're getting him without giving up any assets, then it's fine if he's just a top 20 player instead of top 15

Of course. His capacities are the same, included in these All-NBA teams or not. But if he is there, his chance to get a supermax will make it impossible for us to grab him as a free agent.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2017, 10:07:16 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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People who definitely make all NBA teams over Hayward:

Lebron
Durant
Harden
Westbrook
Curry
Kawhi
Lowry
Butler
Kyrie
Giannis
Davis (assuming that his stats don't go way down now that he's next to Boogie)
Boogie (ditto)

Players that probably make it over him:

IT
John Wall
Derozan
Jokic
Towns

Feel free to dispute some of those, but that's 17 guys. I just can't see Hayward making it unless he picks it way up or some people drop off.

They award All-NBA by position (albeit loosely).  Hayward presumably is a forward, so he needs to be one of the top 6.  The nice thing about the Boogie trade from this respect is that Anthony Davis should solidify himself as a forward instead of a center for purposes of this award.  At the same time, Jimmy Butler could be shifted to guard.

Also, I know people hate him, but Draymond Green has at least as much of a chance at third team as Hayward.

Anyway, I doubt Hayward quite sneaks into All-NBA.  But I think he'll get a fair amount of votes, and it will be close.  He's having a terrific year.

You're right I didn't even think about that.  I guess it's really:

Definitely over him:

Lebron
Durant
Kawhi
Giannis

Over him if they are considered forwards:

Butler (with all the good guards in the NBA, and the fact that he's playing SF with Wade at SG, he'll be considered a forward unless something drastic happens)
Davis (IF he gets considered a forward instead of a center)

Roughly on the same level:

Green
Paul George

I think it would take Davis being considered a center and Butler being considered a guard for Hayward to make it, but I can't see both of those things happening
I'm bitter.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2017, 11:10:19 AM »

Offline jambr380

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I know this may sound silly to some, but even if Hayward does make an All-NBA team, is Utah definitely willing to pay him the 'super-max'? I like Hayward as much as the next guy (and especially like him since he is a realistic target for the Cs this off-season), but $207M (is that right??) is a lot to commit to a player of his caliber.

Utah isn't exactly swimming in revenue and they have some decisions to make regarding player contracts. Hayward may seem like a slam dunk, but it's possible that just may be too much money for them to commit.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2017, 11:23:08 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I know this may sound silly to some, but even if Hayward does make an All-NBA team, is Utah definitely willing to pay him the 'super-max'? I like Hayward as much as the next guy (and especially like him since he is a realistic target for the Cs this off-season), but $207M (is that right??) is a lot to commit to a player of his caliber.

Utah isn't exactly swimming in revenue and they have some decisions to make regarding player contracts. Hayward may seem like a slam dunk, but it's possible that just may be too much money for them to commit.

Yes, Utah would give him the most they can. Most of their contracts expire after the 2017-2018 season, so by the time they can give Hayward such an offer, they'll have a pretty clean cap and should be able to manage things.

If Utah doesn't think they'll offer him the deal if eligible, they should trade Hayward today.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2017, 12:41:58 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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The Celtics meeting is probably just a courtesy to Brad Stevens.

You're right. Utah is such a marquee destination; there is little chance he leaves.

Salt Lake City has a very dry climate. Not good for some.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2017, 01:39:44 PM »

Offline oldtype

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I know this may sound silly to some, but even if Hayward does make an All-NBA team, is Utah definitely willing to pay him the 'super-max'? I like Hayward as much as the next guy (and especially like him since he is a realistic target for the Cs this off-season), but $207M (is that right??) is a lot to commit to a player of his caliber.

Utah isn't exactly swimming in revenue and they have some decisions to make regarding player contracts. Hayward may seem like a slam dunk, but it's possible that just may be too much money for them to commit.

Yes, Utah would give him the most they can. Most of their contracts expire after the 2017-2018 season, so by the time they can give Hayward such an offer, they'll have a pretty clean cap and should be able to manage things.

If Utah doesn't think they'll offer him the deal if eligible, they should trade Hayward today.

Cousins situation shows us that of small-market teams could potentially get cold feet at the idea of offering a super-max to anyone short of a Lebron/Durant/Curry level slam dunk superstar.  Hayward is a good player, but $200m over five years tied up in him is not a trivial investment. 


Great words from a great man

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2017, 01:56:04 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Just Like Durant was only meeting with Celtics, Thunder and Warriors yeh?  Oh, right...

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2017, 02:05:12 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Just Like Durant was only meeting with Celtics, Thunder and Warriors yeh?  Oh, right...
It does seem like those were the only teams he gave even semi serious consideration to......the meeting with the Spurs and Clippers seemed like just being polite for opportunities down the road.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2017, 02:10:53 PM »

Offline TheTruthFot18

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Just Like Durant was only meeting with Celtics, Thunder and Warriors yeh?  Oh, right...

Well he did pick one of those teams and it wasn't even the old team. What's your argument?
The Nets will finish with the worst record and the Celtics will end up with the 4th pick.

- Me (sometime in January)

--------------------------------------------------------

Guess I was wrong (May 23rd)

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2017, 02:11:35 PM »

Offline saltlover

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I know this may sound silly to some, but even if Hayward does make an All-NBA team, is Utah definitely willing to pay him the 'super-max'? I like Hayward as much as the next guy (and especially like him since he is a realistic target for the Cs this off-season), but $207M (is that right??) is a lot to commit to a player of his caliber.

Utah isn't exactly swimming in revenue and they have some decisions to make regarding player contracts. Hayward may seem like a slam dunk, but it's possible that just may be too much money for them to commit.

Yes, Utah would give him the most they can. Most of their contracts expire after the 2017-2018 season, so by the time they can give Hayward such an offer, they'll have a pretty clean cap and should be able to manage things.

If Utah doesn't think they'll offer him the deal if eligible, they should trade Hayward today.

Cousins situation shows us that of small-market teams could potentially get cold feet at the idea of offering a super-max to anyone short of a Lebron/Durant/Curry level slam dunk superstar.  Hayward is a good player, but $200m over five years tied up in him is not a trivial investment.

The cold feet of Sacramento comes from multiple places:

1) They're ridiculously fickle, and have had no long-term organizational plan.  Committing to a player for 6 years was not something they could handle.
2) What are they committing to? This is a team that hasn't had a winning record in many years, and pretty much had no long-term pieces aside from Cousins.

Utah, meanwhile, has been focused on building from within for quite some time -- certainly since they traded Deron.  They have organizational stability and direction.  They've already locked up another cornerstone player in Gobert for four more years after this one.  They've got some other young players who are coming around, like Hood and Lyles.  And they're a team that has a real chance at home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.  Do they have Golden State's future in front of them? Likely not.  But could they be a team that is annually in the top half of the West over the life of Hayward's next deal?  Absolutely.  And with smart roster management, they can afford to pay him.  It will be more difficult for them than some other teams, but it's already more difficult, and you don't give up just because it's not easy.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #25 on: February 21, 2017, 02:15:14 PM »

Offline GreenShooter

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Jazz should trade him now to the C's for Jae + if they don't feel confident he'll re-sign (wishful thinking). It's definitely better than losing him without any compensation.

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #26 on: February 21, 2017, 02:15:55 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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People who definitely make all NBA teams over Hayward:

Lebron
Durant
Harden
Westbrook
Curry
Kawhi
Lowry
Butler
Kyrie
Giannis
Davis (assuming that his stats don't go way down now that he's next to Boogie)
Boogie (ditto)

Players that probably make it over him:

IT
John Wall
Derozan
Jokic
Towns

Feel free to dispute some of those, but that's 17 guys. I just can't see Hayward making it unless he picks it way up or some people drop off.
Paul George
Bradley Beal.
Carmelo may have a big second half too
"People look at players, watch them dribble between their legs and they say, 'There's a superstar.'  Well John Havlicek is a superstar, and most of the others are figments of writers' imagination."
--Jerry West, on John Havlicek

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #27 on: February 21, 2017, 02:24:38 PM »

Offline OldSchoolDude

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The Celtics meeting is probably just a courtesy to Brad Stevens.

The Jazz meeting is probably just a courtesy to Utah.
The Celtics meeting is to tour his new facility.   ;)

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #28 on: February 21, 2017, 02:35:44 PM »

Offline oldtype

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I know this may sound silly to some, but even if Hayward does make an All-NBA team, is Utah definitely willing to pay him the 'super-max'? I like Hayward as much as the next guy (and especially like him since he is a realistic target for the Cs this off-season), but $207M (is that right??) is a lot to commit to a player of his caliber.

Utah isn't exactly swimming in revenue and they have some decisions to make regarding player contracts. Hayward may seem like a slam dunk, but it's possible that just may be too much money for them to commit.

Yes, Utah would give him the most they can. Most of their contracts expire after the 2017-2018 season, so by the time they can give Hayward such an offer, they'll have a pretty clean cap and should be able to manage things.

If Utah doesn't think they'll offer him the deal if eligible, they should trade Hayward today.

Cousins situation shows us that of small-market teams could potentially get cold feet at the idea of offering a super-max to anyone short of a Lebron/Durant/Curry level slam dunk superstar.  Hayward is a good player, but $200m over five years tied up in him is not a trivial investment.

The cold feet of Sacramento comes from multiple places:

1) They're ridiculously fickle, and have had no long-term organizational plan.  Committing to a player for 6 years was not something they could handle.
2) What are they committing to? This is a team that hasn't had a winning record in many years, and pretty much had no long-term pieces aside from Cousins.

Utah, meanwhile, has been focused on building from within for quite some time -- certainly since they traded Deron.  They have organizational stability and direction.  They've already locked up another cornerstone player in Gobert for four more years after this one.  They've got some other young players who are coming around, like Hood and Lyles.  And they're a team that has a real chance at home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.  Do they have Golden State's future in front of them? Likely not.  But could they be a team that is annually in the top half of the West over the life of Hayward's next deal?  Absolutely.  And with smart roster management, they can afford to pay him.  It will be more difficult for them than some other teams, but it's already more difficult, and you don't give up just because it's not easy.

If they give Hayward the full designated max, that's 65m (or 65%+ of their salary cap) tied up in just Hayward and Gobert well into 2021 (George Hill is probably walking away with another 15% or so for 4 years this summer as well.)  That's not trivial, and is going to severely impact their ability to improve beyond their core.  Designated max contracts are very, very difficult to trade as well, because it's not easy to match 40m in salary no matter how much you want a player.

I'm not saying they're not going to do it, but it's a huge, huge, huge, huge risk.  You're essentially locking into Hayward and Gobert as your top two players forever.


Great words from a great man

Re: Kyler - Hayward to only meet with C's and Jazz during free agency
« Reply #29 on: February 21, 2017, 02:46:06 PM »

Offline saltlover

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I know this may sound silly to some, but even if Hayward does make an All-NBA team, is Utah definitely willing to pay him the 'super-max'? I like Hayward as much as the next guy (and especially like him since he is a realistic target for the Cs this off-season), but $207M (is that right??) is a lot to commit to a player of his caliber.

Utah isn't exactly swimming in revenue and they have some decisions to make regarding player contracts. Hayward may seem like a slam dunk, but it's possible that just may be too much money for them to commit.

Yes, Utah would give him the most they can. Most of their contracts expire after the 2017-2018 season, so by the time they can give Hayward such an offer, they'll have a pretty clean cap and should be able to manage things.

If Utah doesn't think they'll offer him the deal if eligible, they should trade Hayward today.

Cousins situation shows us that of small-market teams could potentially get cold feet at the idea of offering a super-max to anyone short of a Lebron/Durant/Curry level slam dunk superstar.  Hayward is a good player, but $200m over five years tied up in him is not a trivial investment.

The cold feet of Sacramento comes from multiple places:

1) They're ridiculously fickle, and have had no long-term organizational plan.  Committing to a player for 6 years was not something they could handle.
2) What are they committing to? This is a team that hasn't had a winning record in many years, and pretty much had no long-term pieces aside from Cousins.

Utah, meanwhile, has been focused on building from within for quite some time -- certainly since they traded Deron.  They have organizational stability and direction.  They've already locked up another cornerstone player in Gobert for four more years after this one.  They've got some other young players who are coming around, like Hood and Lyles.  And they're a team that has a real chance at home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.  Do they have Golden State's future in front of them? Likely not.  But could they be a team that is annually in the top half of the West over the life of Hayward's next deal?  Absolutely.  And with smart roster management, they can afford to pay him.  It will be more difficult for them than some other teams, but it's already more difficult, and you don't give up just because it's not easy.

If they give Hayward the full designated max, that's 65m (or 65%+ of their salary cap) tied up in just Hayward and Gobert well into 2021 (George Hill is probably walking away with another 15% or so for 4 years this summer as well.)  That's not trivial, and is going to severely impact their ability to improve beyond their core.  Designated max contracts are very, very difficult to trade as well, because it's not easy to match 40m in salary no matter how much you want a player.

I'm not saying they're not going to do it, but it's a huge, huge, huge, huge risk.  You're essentially locking into Hayward and Gobert as your top two players forever.

It's a fair bit less than 65%, fwiw.  It obviously depends upon how the cap rises, but in 2018-2019 those two would take up 57%, as Gobert is already signed to a deal that's a little under the 25% max.  It may sound like I'm splitting hairs, but that's over an $8 million difference, which can either be used to help keep around some of their secondary pieces like Hood, or improve their depth.

And as for not improving beyond their core -- the Jazz mostly hope that their core improves enough on its own.  That is their strategy and has to be their strategy, primarily.  It's a very tight line that they need to walk, but the odds that any lack of success is caused by stretching the budget to pay Hayward an extra $5-6 million a year are far exceeded by the odds that a lack of success will come from having Hayward leave and not being able to fill the void his departure creates.